So a new Rasmussen poll has Linda McMahon LEADING (!!!!!!!!!) Rep. Chris Murphy in the Connecticut Senate race. Remember, in 2010, A WAVE YEAR FOR THE GOP, McMahon, despite spending $50 million (dear Lord), couldn’t buy her way into the Senate.
The new poll, out today, has McMahon ahead of Murphy 49-46. That tells me three things: (1) Public opinion is generally solidified, with only 5% undecided/having no opinion; (2) McMahon is so, so close to 50%, a good sign for her and the GOP; and (3), could Murphy serving in the House be a detriment?
Hot Air breaks down the partisan leanings: 46/32/21 D/R/I compared to 2008 (43/27/31) and 2010 (39/28/33). A partisan breakdown between 2008 and 2010 is what is general expected this year. Women are 56/44 of the sample, which is +3 from 2008 and +7 from 2010. Interesting.
McMahon is leading among independents 55/31 and leads among 40-55 and 55+ (by 18) and only trailed by 9 (40/49) in the U-40 demo. I’m not going to say I’m surprised by the 55/31 spread among independents, PPP had Romney with a +7 edge with independents at the end of July, so this is possible.
Why is Murphy trailing? Probably because he is currently serving in the House. He has votes to defend. 44% of voters think the President’s health care law with affect Medicare, versus 43% who think Ryan’s plan will. 42% rate the economy good or fair, with 57% rating it poor.
If McMahon can hold on and win this seat, it would make a potential loss of Missouri that much easier to bear. And it gives Romney potential at the top of the ticket in a blue state in the NE.