Monthly Archives: September 2012

Time to Go All In

Todd Akin is officially the nominee in Missouri. The deadline has passed and he is the nominee for the Missouri Senate Seat being rented by Claire McCaskill.

Time to go all in. Missouri is crucial to the Republicans taking over the Senate. Jim Demint is in. Rick Santorum is in. Roy Blunt is in. NRSC, get in!

Montana is a win
North Dakota in a win
Wisconsin is a win
Nebraska is a win
Massachusetts is a retain
Nevada is a retain

50-48-1…Missouri has to be won.

Let’s go.

CBS Polls: Completely BullShit

Has anyone looked at these today and just LAUGHED? Hahahahaha.

Ohio: Obama up 10…on a D+9 (26R/35D/35I)

Florida: Obama up 10…on a D+9 (27R/36D/33I)

Pennsylvania: Obama up 12…on a D+11 (28/39/27)

Sorry no. These polls are cooked.

Yours is Askew

So some brave men and women (and bored?) have taken all the polls of the Obama-Romney race and “re-skewed” the “skewed” polls that oversample Democratic turnout and assume a 2008-or-higher level of Democratics. Let’s look at some of the outlets, what they say, and what “un-skewed” has to say.

POLLING FIRM               SKEWED                 UNSKEWED

Reuters-Ipsos                   O48-43                     R54-44

NBC/WSJ                         O50-45                      R51-44

NYT/CBS                          O49-46                      R51-44

Fox News                          O48-43                     R48-45

ABC/WashPo                   O49-48                     R52-45

CNN/ORC                        O52-46                      R53-45

Here is an example of how they “un-skew” a poll.

Basically:

(1) take the sample of the poll (33D-24R-36I), re-calibrate it to match something more likely to be the turnout (this is based on Rasmussen Party ID numbers) – (33.06R-31.75D-28.19I)

(2) Now take the survey breakdown found in the poll – 90% D to Obama, 90% R to Romney, and 60% I to Romney. There’s your new poll numbers.

Whether you use Rasmussen Party ID or Gallup Party ID or if we assume the election is going to be roughly D+2 (which is what I think)….I see something more like 50.6Romney-49.4Obama. (90% of each party goes to their nominee, Romney has a 10-point lead on indies at 55%).

On Civil Discourse and Being Open Minded

I’ve always considered myself rather open-minded in terms of political beliefs. Not to say I flip-flop, but in the words of President Obama, I can “evolve” on certain issues.

I was what I thought was a Democrat back in the 06/08 days when they really appealed to the people in the middle – they were moderate and Blue Dog Democrats were all over the place. I would have easily been a Republican during 00/02/04 when there were a lot of liberal Republicans, especially in the Northeast. RINO was not a bad word until 2006/2008.

I’ve evolved in a lot of issues – fiscal issues such as taxes, social issues such as gay marriage – and I found myself listening to an argument being made to me over the weekend about healthcare. In my mind, it’s a state by state decision – things like Romneycare and TennCare are good for their individual states because the voters had a direct say in it being instituted. I’m a fan of government referendums – let the voters decide.

But, this was the question posed to me: if we institute universal healthcare on a state-by-state basis, (1) what is to stop someone from moving from a state without to a state with universal healthcare, using up the services for as long as it takes for them to get better, and leaving; and (2), how do you ask states to take on the burden of these decisions?

(1) I’m sick. I live in Texas, so I pack up and move to Tennessee. I get a job, get a house, and start using the TennCare services. Six months later, I’m all better, so I move back to Texas. What did I accomplish? I didn’t even pay enough in taxes to my state to justify using the services, but more than likely, I got the full coverage of services.

This messes up a lot of stuff. People go in and pay, say, $1,500 in state taxes for $5,000 worth of service.

(2) Texas decides to institute universal healthcare by a vote of the people. How do we pay for this? Texas has no income tax. We pay sales tax and sales tax funds our state government. Do we now have to vote on and approve a state income tax to fund our state healthcare? But wait, the Texas Constitution would have to be changed. Boy is this messy.

Maybe universal healthcare isn’t so bad, but, the process by which it is brought up, debated, legislated, and passed needs to be done better.

So about that foreign policy strength, huh?

Let’s keep hammering that Obama killed Osama. OBAMA KILLED OSAMA. OBAMA KILLED OSAMA. FOREIGN POLICY EXPERT.

Then why does he keep screwing up?

Having to come and say, hey, the Bengazhi attack was a terrorist act, on 9/11, and was pre-planned. Hell, there weren’t even any protests outside the building like we tried to lie about.

Hey, UN meeting this week? Sorry, President Obama ain’t got no time for bilateral meetings with heads of state….just the women on the View! Thank Goodness.

Israel’s concern Iran is going to nuke it to oblivious? “Noise” Obama is going to ignore, he says.

Senate Minority wants a report on what exactly happened in Libya? Psh, read about it in the papers, because Obama and the State Department don’t need to tell you elected officials anything.

Garbage in, garbage out

Garbage polls by NBC/WSJ as per usual.

Wisconsin: Obama 50 – Romney 45

D/R/I: 33/28/38 (D+5)

Iowa: Obama 50 – Romney 42

D/R/I: 36/31/33 (D+5)

Colorado: Obama 50 – Romney 45

D/R/I: 34/32/32 (D+2)

 

As usual, the polling assumes a Democratic turnout nearly equal to 2008, the highwater for the Dems. D+6 was the turnout in 2008…I am about 99.9% sure November is going to be closer to D+2 or even.

Garbage in, garbage out. Polls create narratives. The media narrative: OBAMA IS WINNING. Internal polling says otherwise, or else Obama wouldn’t be in Iowa/Wisconsin considering the margin he won by in 2008.

Goodbye, old friend

May 7, 1992 – June 1, 2011

She slipped the surly bonds of Earth to touch the face of God. We will miss you Endeavor.

I’ve always had a huge fascination with space since I was little. I was one of those kids who wanted Star Wars to really have happened and Star Trek to really be the future. I was fascinated by space…so big, so vast, so much out there, and yet, most of what we think we know about space is nothing but a guess.

I loved NASA and I loved growing up in Space City. It’s a crying shame NASA is on its way to becoming extinct and Texas couldn’t get one of the original shuttles to be retired here. NASA will be back one day, because we have nowhere to go but up.

 

%d bloggers like this: