Monthly Archives: September 2012

Time to Go All In

Todd Akin is officially the nominee in Missouri. The deadline has passed and he is the nominee for the Missouri Senate Seat being rented by Claire McCaskill.

Time to go all in. Missouri is crucial to the Republicans taking over the Senate. Jim Demint is in. Rick Santorum is in. Roy Blunt is in. NRSC, get in!

Montana is a win
North Dakota in a win
Wisconsin is a win
Nebraska is a win
Massachusetts is a retain
Nevada is a retain

50-48-1…Missouri has to be won.

Let’s go.

CBS Polls: Completely BullShit

Has anyone looked at these today and just LAUGHED? Hahahahaha.

Ohio: Obama up 10…on a D+9 (26R/35D/35I)

Florida: Obama up 10…on a D+9 (27R/36D/33I)

Pennsylvania: Obama up 12…on a D+11 (28/39/27)

Sorry no. These polls are cooked.

Yours is Askew

So some brave men and women (and bored?) have taken all the polls of the Obama-Romney race and “re-skewed” the “skewed” polls that oversample Democratic turnout and assume a 2008-or-higher level of Democratics. Let’s look at some of the outlets, what they say, and what “un-skewed” has to say.

POLLING FIRM               SKEWED                 UNSKEWED

Reuters-Ipsos                   O48-43                     R54-44

NBC/WSJ                         O50-45                      R51-44

NYT/CBS                          O49-46                      R51-44

Fox News                          O48-43                     R48-45

ABC/WashPo                   O49-48                     R52-45

CNN/ORC                        O52-46                      R53-45

Here is an example of how they “un-skew” a poll.

Basically:

(1) take the sample of the poll (33D-24R-36I), re-calibrate it to match something more likely to be the turnout (this is based on Rasmussen Party ID numbers) – (33.06R-31.75D-28.19I)

(2) Now take the survey breakdown found in the poll – 90% D to Obama, 90% R to Romney, and 60% I to Romney. There’s your new poll numbers.

Whether you use Rasmussen Party ID or Gallup Party ID or if we assume the election is going to be roughly D+2 (which is what I think)….I see something more like 50.6Romney-49.4Obama. (90% of each party goes to their nominee, Romney has a 10-point lead on indies at 55%).

On Civil Discourse and Being Open Minded

I’ve always considered myself rather open-minded in terms of political beliefs. Not to say I flip-flop, but in the words of President Obama, I can “evolve” on certain issues.

I was what I thought was a Democrat back in the 06/08 days when they really appealed to the people in the middle – they were moderate and Blue Dog Democrats were all over the place. I would have easily been a Republican during 00/02/04 when there were a lot of liberal Republicans, especially in the Northeast. RINO was not a bad word until 2006/2008.

I’ve evolved in a lot of issues – fiscal issues such as taxes, social issues such as gay marriage – and I found myself listening to an argument being made to me over the weekend about healthcare. In my mind, it’s a state by state decision – things like Romneycare and TennCare are good for their individual states because the voters had a direct say in it being instituted. I’m a fan of government referendums – let the voters decide.

But, this was the question posed to me: if we institute universal healthcare on a state-by-state basis, (1) what is to stop someone from moving from a state without to a state with universal healthcare, using up the services for as long as it takes for them to get better, and leaving; and (2), how do you ask states to take on the burden of these decisions?

(1) I’m sick. I live in Texas, so I pack up and move to Tennessee. I get a job, get a house, and start using the TennCare services. Six months later, I’m all better, so I move back to Texas. What did I accomplish? I didn’t even pay enough in taxes to my state to justify using the services, but more than likely, I got the full coverage of services.

This messes up a lot of stuff. People go in and pay, say, $1,500 in state taxes for $5,000 worth of service.

(2) Texas decides to institute universal healthcare by a vote of the people. How do we pay for this? Texas has no income tax. We pay sales tax and sales tax funds our state government. Do we now have to vote on and approve a state income tax to fund our state healthcare? But wait, the Texas Constitution would have to be changed. Boy is this messy.

Maybe universal healthcare isn’t so bad, but, the process by which it is brought up, debated, legislated, and passed needs to be done better.

So about that foreign policy strength, huh?

Let’s keep hammering that Obama killed Osama. OBAMA KILLED OSAMA. OBAMA KILLED OSAMA. FOREIGN POLICY EXPERT.

Then why does he keep screwing up?

Having to come and say, hey, the Bengazhi attack was a terrorist act, on 9/11, and was pre-planned. Hell, there weren’t even any protests outside the building like we tried to lie about.

Hey, UN meeting this week? Sorry, President Obama ain’t got no time for bilateral meetings with heads of state….just the women on the View! Thank Goodness.

Israel’s concern Iran is going to nuke it to oblivious? “Noise” Obama is going to ignore, he says.

Senate Minority wants a report on what exactly happened in Libya? Psh, read about it in the papers, because Obama and the State Department don’t need to tell you elected officials anything.

Garbage in, garbage out

Garbage polls by NBC/WSJ as per usual.

Wisconsin: Obama 50 – Romney 45

D/R/I: 33/28/38 (D+5)

Iowa: Obama 50 – Romney 42

D/R/I: 36/31/33 (D+5)

Colorado: Obama 50 – Romney 45

D/R/I: 34/32/32 (D+2)

 

As usual, the polling assumes a Democratic turnout nearly equal to 2008, the highwater for the Dems. D+6 was the turnout in 2008…I am about 99.9% sure November is going to be closer to D+2 or even.

Garbage in, garbage out. Polls create narratives. The media narrative: OBAMA IS WINNING. Internal polling says otherwise, or else Obama wouldn’t be in Iowa/Wisconsin considering the margin he won by in 2008.

Goodbye, old friend

May 7, 1992 – June 1, 2011

She slipped the surly bonds of Earth to touch the face of God. We will miss you Endeavor.

I’ve always had a huge fascination with space since I was little. I was one of those kids who wanted Star Wars to really have happened and Star Trek to really be the future. I was fascinated by space…so big, so vast, so much out there, and yet, most of what we think we know about space is nothing but a guess.

I loved NASA and I loved growing up in Space City. It’s a crying shame NASA is on its way to becoming extinct and Texas couldn’t get one of the original shuttles to be retired here. NASA will be back one day, because we have nowhere to go but up.

 

What in the world is going on in New England?

Specifically, three Senate races to touch on:

  • Massachusetts: polls had Scott Brown the favorite for re-election, up anywhere from a point to high single digits; all of a sudden, Granny Warren is up anywhere from low to mid single digits. Back to tossup status?
  • Connecticut: polls had Linda McMahon edging out Chris Murphy by about three points; now, Murphy is up, albeit by small margins. Outliers or trends?
  • Maine: King was the prohibitive favorite as the Independent candidate; two new polls show King 44, Summers 28, Dill 15 and also King 43, Summers 35, Dill 14. Two polls showing same thing: Summers is gaining on King as Dill gains traction. Potential new pickup?

And for fun: 270towin.com has their 2012 House Map up. I can spend hours on this.

The House now is 242R-193D…I think the GOP gains due to redistricting…256R-179D

Scattershots

Polls are nothing more than a snapshot in time, meant to create a narrative that one candidate is winning or pulling away and another is falling and fading. Most polls have awful sample skews and/or ask the questions in a way that show obvious bias.

Nonetheless, some scattershots:

  • AP poll has Obama up 1, 47/46
  • CBS/NYT Colorado: Obama 48/47
  • CBS/NYT Virginia: Obama 50/46*
  • CBS/NYT Wisconsin: Obama 51/45
  • Rasmussen New Hampshire: Romney 48/45
  • WeAskAmerica Virginia: Obama 49/46

Digging deep into the polls, we find some have relatively normal sample sizes (CBS/NYT Colorado has R+1) but some are so weird (CBS/NYT Virginia had a D+11 sample size, which is +5 more than ’08 turnouts, but Romney is crushing with indies 53-42).

Let me address that Virginia poll. A 4-point race with a +11 Democratic sample, nearly double 2008, where the Republican wins indies by double-digits. Let me tell you, if you adjust that poll to even ’08 turnout, Romney is at least tied or barely ahead in Virginia.

That Colorado poll, with an R+1 sample, suggests Obama wins independents by a single point, 47/46. Obama took Colorado purely by running up his margin with independents in the suburbs, where Republicans still have a huge voting edge. Romney is probably a marginal favorite in Colorado.

Let’s say Romney is the favorite in Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, and New Hampshire…Obama is the favorite in Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Michigan…now its 248R-243O…I think Iowa goes Romney, but (at this point) Wisconsin goes Obama…254R-253O…Romney has to take Ohio to win (272) as Virginia doesn’t get him there (267)…or he can lose Ohio, win Virginia, but he has to steal a state (Wisconsin is the best bet). There are some unusual paths for him, but there are paths based on polling.

  • All Signs Point to a Tight Race: Those watching the daily tracking polls know that, while the President has seen a bounce from his convention, his approval has already begun to slip, indicating it is likely to recede further.  In eight states, Pollster.com’s reporting of the most recent statewide polls puts the margin between the two candidates at less than three points, virtually guaranteeing a tight race.
  • Next, the battlefield has actually expanded, not contracted.  Note that Wisconsin is now in play and our campaign is now up with ads in that state, while the latest poll numbers from the Albuquerque Journal in New Mexico show the race closing there.  And this tightening is not an anomaly.  Consider the traditional Democratic strongholds of New Jersey and Connecticut, won by President Obama in 2008 by margins of 15 points and 22 points, respectively.  In both states, Pollster.com’s reporting of the most recent statewide polls puts Obama’s lead at only seven points in each of these states.
  • In North Carolina, fresh off of hosting the Democratic National Convention, the Obama campaign is laying the groundwork for a stealth withdrawal.  In a state the President won by a mere 14,000 votes in 2008, all one has to do is look at the Obama campaign’s television buy in the state to understand how they view their chances there.  The Obama campaign’s North Carolina television buy has dropped 35% compared to June, and they have run more than twice as much advertising over the past two weeks in Rochester, Minnesota (hitting a small slice of Iowa), than they have in any North Carolina market.

Susan Rice, you ain’t no Condi

So on the Sunday shows, Susan Rice says the Benghazi attack was not pre-planned, but a spontaneous response to the Mohammad video.

Libyan and Egyptian officials claim the attacks were pre-planned, falling on the 11th anniversary of 9/11…in Egypt, the brother of an AQ leader was in the attack on the Egyptian embassy and they replaced the American flag with an AQ banner.

In Egypt, rampagers chanted “Obama! Obama! We are all Osama!” and in Afghanistan “Death to America!”

And yet, according to Susan Rice, we are loved in the Middle East and this was just a spontaneous protest to the video.

The Obama administration knew attacks were planned before 9/11/12 and did nothing about them. There was minimal security in Benghazi and in Tripoli, meaning no Marines and an unarmed British security firm, which was okay-ed by Secretary Clinton.

Obama Press Sec. Jay Carney last week: protest, not the work of extremists. Today: okay, maybe it could have been pre-planned.

Heads should roll for putting our Foreign Service operatives at risk and especially for the death of our Ambassador to Libya.

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