So some brave men and women (and bored?) have taken all the polls of the Obama-Romney race and “re-skewed” the “skewed” polls that oversample Democratic turnout and assume a 2008-or-higher level of Democratics. Let’s look at some of the outlets, what they say, and what “un-skewed” has to say.
POLLING FIRM SKEWED UNSKEWED
Reuters-Ipsos O48-43 R54-44
NBC/WSJ O50-45 R51-44
NYT/CBS O49-46 R51-44
Fox News O48-43 R48-45
ABC/WashPo O49-48 R52-45
CNN/ORC O52-46 R53-45
(1) take the sample of the poll (33D-24R-36I), re-calibrate it to match something more likely to be the turnout (this is based on Rasmussen Party ID numbers) – (33.06R-31.75D-28.19I)
(2) Now take the survey breakdown found in the poll – 90% D to Obama, 90% R to Romney, and 60% I to Romney. There’s your new poll numbers.
Whether you use Rasmussen Party ID or Gallup Party ID or if we assume the election is going to be roughly D+2 (which is what I think)….I see something more like 50.6Romney-49.4Obama. (90% of each party goes to their nominee, Romney has a 10-point lead on indies at 55%).