Monthly Archives: October 2012

And That’s a Wrap (On Debate Season)

Last debate until the 2016 primary season (2015)….Final thoughts:

  • Obama had the upper hand being the incumbent. 90% of his job is foreign policy, so he knows it inside and out. That isn’t to say a Governor cannot be strong on foreign policy (Clinton, Bush, Reagan), but the advantage of being the incumbent is huge in this case.
  • Romney won on substance. He laid out specifics, he challenged President Obama on his failures in foreign policy, and he showed gravitas when it mattered. In the end, the incumbent looked more like the challenger and the challenger like the incumbent.
  • Romney worked hard (and maybe a tiny bit successfully) to shed the hawkish image of the GOP. War is the last resort, you don’t win by killing people, etc. At the least, he placated independents worried about a warmonger.
  • Please, do not let bayonets become the new Big Bird or binders. Please, we can’t take much more.

Who won?

  • Draw. Romney won on substance, Obama won on everything else. The polls were not definitive, if anything, they showed Obama “won” on the surface but Romney won underneath. Like the second debate, it won’t be enough to give Obama a boost heading into the final two weeks.
  • Romney looked the part of president, which is what this was about. A tie is all he needed to actually win.
  • PPP had it best – Obama won; but, he lost. Independents are more likely to vote for Romney after the debate, and less likely Obama. In other words, he did nothing to stop the shedding of the independents that will doom him. CNN put it another way: 24% more likely to vote for Obama, 25% Romney, 50% neither. It’s too late in the game.

Best quotes:

  • Obama: “When I went to Israel as a candidate, I didn’t take donors. I didn’t attend fundraisers. I went to Yad Vashem, the Holocaust museum there to remind myself of the nature of evil and why our bond with Israel would be unbreakable.”
  • Obama: “Gov. Romney, I’m glad that you recognize that Al Qaeda is a threat because a few months ago when you asked what’s the biggest geopolitical threat facing America, you said Russia – not Al Qaeda – you said Russia. The 1980s are now calling and asking for their foreign policy back.”
  • Obama: “Governor, you say you want a bigger military. You want a bigger Navy. You don’t want to cut defense spending. What I want to ask you — we were talking about financial problems in this country. Where are you going to get the money?”
  • Romney: “I congratulate him on taking out Osama bin Laden and going after the leadership in Al Qaeda, but we can’t kill our way out of this mess.”
  • Romney: “Mr. President, the reason I call it an apology tour is because you went to the Middle East, and you flew to Egypt and to Saudi Arabia and to Turkey and Iraq. And by the way, you skipped Israel, our closest friend in the region. And by the way, they noticed that you skipped Israel.”
  • “I have clear eyes on this. I’m not going to wear rose-colored glasses when it comes to Russia or Mr. Putin and I’m certainly not going to say to him, ‘I’ll give you more flexibility after the election.’ After the election, he’ll get more backbone.”
  • Romney: “This is a critical opportunity for America. And what I’m afraid of is we’ve watched over the past year or so, first the president saying, ‘Well we’ll let the U.N. deal with it.’”

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I Voted

Yes everyone, I did. I love, love, LOVE to vote on the first day of Early Voting, because 1) that way I don’t forget and 2) I like to be one of the first people to vote.

I don’t vote straight ticket…it is irresponsible and lazy. I study the races before (using my sample ballot I get from my county voting website) and go race by race. I vote for incumbents who deserve to be re-elected, I vote for challengers when the incumbent is awful, and if the Republican and Democrat aren’t worth a salt, I vote for the Libertarian. I vote my principles, not a party.

So go vote! Walk up to the building with pride, put a big smile on, and cast your ballot. Make your voice heard and be loud and proud about it! Tell everyone…hey, I voted! Have you?

I Can Make Up Polls Too

Someone should hire me, my polls are probably a thousand times better than CBS and Quinnipiac. Why is that? Let’s look at their Ohio poll:

  • Obama leads Romney 50-45. The sample: 35/26/34. D+9….nearly double the margin from 2008. Who the heck believes the Democrats are MORE enthused this year and the Republicans will turn out at their lowest point in half a century? Hint: no one.
  • Romney is up 7 with independents….a 15-point shift from 2008…
  • D+9…5 point lead….losing independents by high single-digits…and only a 5 point lead is…wow, not good for Team Obama.

NBC/WSJ national poll has the race tied at 47%. Why is this one bad for Team Obama:

  • 41/53 right/wrong direction
  • 49/48 Obama job approval; 46/52 on economy
  • Only 37% asked where McCain voters
  • 44/38/15 with leaners…independents way way way undersampled
  • Romney +2 in the gender gap…huge.

Romney +2 in Rasmussen; +3 in swing states

Romney +2 in GWU/Politico Battleground

Tied in PPP

Romney +7 in Gallup as of yesterday (another day of the 7-day average will drop off today around noon)

Swing States

Per RCP averages (anomalies in parentheses)

Ohio Obama +2.2 (+1, +3, tie, +1….+5 is the anomaly…) its more like +1 right now

Florida Romney +2.1

Virginia Tie (-5 is the anomaly with Romney +1, 3, 1)

New Hampshire Romney +1 (the anomaly is Romney +3…Tie, +1, -1)

Colorado Romney +0.2 (-3 is the anomaly…-2, +1, +1, +4)

Iowa Obama +2.4 (Obama +8 is the anomaly…+2, tie, +3, -1)

Wisconsin Obama +2.8 (Obama +6 is the anomaly…+2, +3, +1, +2)

Right now I’m comfortable with Romney 261 – Obama 243….Iowa is a tossup (O+1)….Ohio is a tossup (O+1.25)…Wisconsin is a tossup (Obama +2)…the rest are trending Romney (FL, VA, NH, CO)…

Third debate tonight….WEEEEEE

Around the Horn, 10/18: This Day in Politics

  • Surprise! Jobless claims rise. Numbers adjusted to reflect bad data. I’m so surprised. “In the week ending October 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 388,000, an increase of 46,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 342,000.” Recovery!! /sarc
  • White House says Obama will veto any bill blocking the fiscal cliff unless it raises taxes on the rich. “Freed from the political and economic constraints that have tied his hands in the past, Obama is ready to play hardball with Republicans, who have so far successfully resisted a deal to tame the debt that includes higher taxes, Obama’s allies say.” It means he is toast, he knows he is losing and he just wants to screw us one last time.
  • Crazy Uncle Joe opens his mouth again: “We are absolutely — this is to our core — my daughter, and my granddaughters and Barack’s daughters are entitled to every single solitary operation! EVERY SINGLE SOLITARY OPERATION!” But not men, because no one needs their vote! /War on Men
  • Mark Halperin says, are you kidding me? 3 weeks form the election and Obama is focused on “binders of women?” It’s called a desperation strategy/grasping at straws. Please look away and continue voting.
  • Rasmussen Daily Tracking: Romney 49 – Obama 46. Romney is gaining separation even post-second debate. With learners: 49-47 Romney. 47%…just like Romney said…
  • Michelle Obama: “See, but your president, he didn’t point fingers. He didn’t place blame. Instead, he got to work, because he was thinking about folks like my dad and like his grandmother.” Right, please ignore Obama and his surrogates screaming BUSH!!!!1!!!!11 as loud as they can with their fingers in their ears. Michelle goes under the bus in 3…2…1…

Jump Ball in Wisky

Marquette University Law School out with their newest poll of Presidential and Senate preferences in Wisconsin.

  • Obama leads Romney 49-48, within the MOE of 4.9%. Before the first debate, Obama led 53-42%. 10 point swing for Romney. Change mostly among indies.
  • Obama job approval is 48/48.
  • Obama favorability is 52/48.
  • Romney favorability is 46/48.
  • 49% favorability for Ryan in his home state.
  • Gender gap: Obama was up 25 with women, now 4 points. 21 point swing towards Romney.

As for the Senate race, Thompson leads Baldwin 46-45%. Last month was Baldwin up 4 points on Tommy. Her favorability: 32/47%. Was 40/40 last month. Thompson at 37/50, basically unchanged. Voters who see Baldwin as “too liberal” nearing 50% before Crossroads/TT ad blitz.

10 electoral votes and a valuable Senate seat completely at a tossup.

Up, up, and away

Romney is now up 6!!! amongst LV in Gallip, 51-45.

He’s up 2(!!!!) among RV, 48-46.

Ann approves.

Post-Debate Breakdance

Who won?

  • On the surface, it was a slight Obama edge: 43.7% – 39.7% in an average of the snap polls (CBS, CNN, PPP)
  • In the details, Romney won handily: Stronger leader, 49-46 Romney; CBS Economy, 64-34 Romney; CNN Economy, 54-40 Romney; Healthcare 49-46 Romney; Taxes, 51-44 Romney…
  • The focus groups of Fox and MSNBC both swung towards Romney.

Substance

  • Neither offered much of it.
  • Romney, no clear vision besides “I can fix the economy.”
  • Obama, no second term agenda; no defense of the past four years.

Questions

  • Very few “good” questions. A lot of softballs towards Obama – “I voted for you in 2008, persuade me to vote for you now;” the illegal immigration question; the fair pay question for women; the Bush question. Crowley approved these ones for a reason.
  • Most of them seem planted into an audience that barely registered a damn pulse.

Moderator

  • Crowley was awful. She interrupted, she fact-checked WHILE moderating and got that wrong. Romney was right on Libya and she had to come out and say so after the debate.

Best lines – Romney

  • “When we’re talking about math that doesn’t add up, how about $5 trillion of deficits over the last four years. That’s math that doesn’t add up.”
  • “You shouldn’t have to hire a lawyer to figure out how to get into this country legally.”

Best lines – Obama

  • “When he said behind closed doors that 47 percent of the country considers themselves victims who refuse personal responsibility, think about who he was talking about: folks on social security who have worked all their lives; veterans, who sacrificed for this country; students, who are out there trying to hopefully advance their own dreams but also this country’s dreams; soldiers, who are overseas fighting for us right now; people who are working hard every day.”
  • “Gov. Romney was a very successful investor. If somebody came to you, governor, with a plan that said, ‘Here, I want to spend $7 or $8 trillion and we’re going to pay for it but we can’t tell you until maybe after the election how we’re going to do it.’ You wouldn’t have taken such a sketchy deal and neither would you, the American people.”

Other

  • Big Bird, “my pension isn’t as big as yours,” binder full of women are distractions. “Look, a squirrel!” moments for the Dems to distract from the fact that hey, Romney won on substance, especially the economy.

Call it a draw. The needle isn’t moving from this one.

Women who looked like Ruth Bader Gisburg at the focus group.

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