The Electoral Tie Breaker

Some new polls out to make this race interesting:

  • VA, Romney up 51-44 (ARG)
  • FL, Romney up 51-47 (Rasmussen)
  • NH, Romney up 50-46 (ARG)
  • Maine, an internal has Romney down 44-48 and leading in Maine’s 2nd CD…the potential tie breaker

According to a new poll shared exclusively with POLITICO, Mitt Romney is leading President Obama in a congressional district in Maine — raising the possibility of the GOP nominee winning an electoral vote in a deep blue state.

The live-call poll, conducted by Glen Bolger of NMB Research and provided to POLITICO by American Crossroads communications director Jonathan Collegio, shows Obama winning statewide 48 percent to 44 percent.

That result already puts Romney in a surprisingly competitive position in a nominally blue state.

But in Maine’s second congressional district, Romney actually tops Obama 49 percent to 44 percent.

In most states, that such a result wouldn’t mean much. But Maine is one of two states in the country that splits its electoral college vote by congressional district.

The second congressional district, encompassing the northern and western part of the state, is largely rural and overwhelmingly white — groups that Obama has never done well among.

During redistricting, the Republican legislature also shifted two towns — Waterville and Winslow — that went heavily for Obama in 2008 from the second congressional district into the first — giving the GOP ticket a boost by removing two population centers from the district.

The idea of a state splitting its electoral vote is not farfetched either.

Obama famously won a single electoral vote in Nebraska’s second congressional district — encompassing Omaha and its suburbs.

The poll points to the surprising possibility of a similar situation in Maine — a state that has not voted for a Republican at the presidential level since 1988.

The poll surveyed 500 statewide likely voters, polled October 7-8 — giving the poll a margin of error of about plus or minus 4 percent.

In the RCP poll of polls:

  • Ohio, O+1.3
  • Florida, R+2
  • Virginia, O+0.6
  • North Carolina, R+3.3
  • Iowa, O+3.2
  • Colorado, R+0.6
  • Wisconsin, O+2.3
  • Missouri, R+5.2
  • New Hampshire, O+0.7
  • Nevada, O+1.6

The Virginia averages do not have the new ARG poll in there; NH, NV, WI, OH are all trending towards tied…Very interesting to watch.

My newest predictions: Romney 274-Obama 264. Romney takes ME-2, NH, VA, FL, NC, MO, IA, WI, and CO. He is the first Republican to win the presidency without Ohio.

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