Let’s start at the very beginning.
- WaPo/ABC: Obama 49, Romney 46 among LV. The caveat: D+9. Two cycles from D+8 and one cycle from tied turnout, suddenly, Democrats are more energized than 2008? As if. Obama up 3 with a D+9 translates to more like Romney +2 with a D+6 or even Romney +4 with a D+4 (more likely).
And followed it up with:
- ARG on Iowa: tie race at 48-48. Last month, Obama was up 7. D+1 (same as 2008).
- ARG in Virginia has Romney +1. Last month, Obama +2. D+5 (D+6 in 2008).
- ARG National has Romney +1 on a D+4. Leads indys by 14. Obama cannot and will not win losing independents by double digits.
- Gravis has Colorado Obama +2.
- PPP has North Carolina Romney +2. Sample way more Democratic than it will be this year.
- PPP has Romney +1 in Florida.
- PPP has Obama +5 in Ohio.
And on Candy Crowley:
- Both debates are not happy with what Crowley believes her role is in the debates. She is a facilitator, as this debate is more a “town hall” style debate. She believes she can steer the conversation instead of moderating it. No. This is the same woman who called the Romney-Ryan ticket a “death wish.” Impartial moderator my Aunt Fanny.