Someone should hire me, my polls are probably a thousand times better than CBS and Quinnipiac. Why is that? Let’s look at their Ohio poll:
- Obama leads Romney 50-45. The sample: 35/26/34. D+9….nearly double the margin from 2008. Who the heck believes the Democrats are MORE enthused this year and the Republicans will turn out at their lowest point in half a century? Hint: no one.
- Romney is up 7 with independents….a 15-point shift from 2008…
- D+9…5 point lead….losing independents by high single-digits…and only a 5 point lead is…wow, not good for Team Obama.
NBC/WSJ national poll has the race tied at 47%. Why is this one bad for Team Obama:
- 41/53 right/wrong direction
- 49/48 Obama job approval; 46/52 on economy
- Only 37% asked where McCain voters
- 44/38/15 with leaners…independents way way way undersampled
- Romney +2 in the gender gap…huge.
Romney +2 in Rasmussen; +3 in swing states
Romney +2 in GWU/Politico Battleground
Tied in PPP
Romney +7 in Gallup as of yesterday (another day of the 7-day average will drop off today around noon)
Per RCP averages (anomalies in parentheses)
Ohio Obama +2.2 (+1, +3, tie, +1….+5 is the anomaly…) its more like +1 right now
Florida Romney +2.1
Virginia Tie (-5 is the anomaly with Romney +1, 3, 1)
New Hampshire Romney +1 (the anomaly is Romney +3…Tie, +1, -1)
Colorado Romney +0.2 (-3 is the anomaly…-2, +1, +1, +4)
Iowa Obama +2.4 (Obama +8 is the anomaly…+2, tie, +3, -1)
Wisconsin Obama +2.8 (Obama +6 is the anomaly…+2, +3, +1, +2)
Right now I’m comfortable with Romney 261 – Obama 243….Iowa is a tossup (O+1)….Ohio is a tossup (O+1.25)…Wisconsin is a tossup (Obama +2)…the rest are trending Romney (FL, VA, NH, CO)…
Third debate tonight….WEEEEEE