2014 is not that far off

The GOP screwed the pooch in 2010 and 2014. I hope – HOPE – they learned their lessons in time for 2014.

The entire House is up and 20 Democratic Senators and 13 Republican Senators are up for re-election. Let’s look at those.

  • Alabama: R Jeff Sessions is up again. R LOCK
  • Alaska: D Mark Begich is up again. Alaska is still a very GOP/Libertarian state. The right candidate can pick up this seat (SARAH?!?!). TOSS UP
  • Arkansas: D Mark Pryor is up again. Arkansas is a state that has become very unfriendly for Democrats since 2010. No shortage of good candidates. R PICKUP
  • Colorado: D Mark Udall is up again. A race with a moderate/libertarian-ish Republican can pick this up (a la Jane Norton, Bill Owens). LEANS D
  • Delaware: D Chris Coons is up again. If Mike Castle runs again, maybe? STRONG D/LOCK
  • Georgia: R Saxy Chambliss is up again. R LOCK
  • Illinois: D Dick Durbin is up again. D LOCK
  • Idaho: R Jim Risch is up again. R LOCK
  • Iowa: D Tom Harkin is up again. There are some good Republicans that can run in this race – Latham, King, Brandstad. LEANS D
  • Kansas: R Pat Roberts is up again. R LOCK
  • Kentucky: R Mitch McConnell is up again. A strong D candidate could beat him, but I don’t think Kentucky has the bench. STRONG R
  • Louisiana: D Mary Landrieu is up again. A state that has turned away from Democrats, I could see her losing this seat easily. TOSSUP/R PICKUP
  • Maine: R Susan Collins is up again. If she runs (and no indication she isn’t), she wins. R LOCK
  • Massachusetts: D John Kerry is up again. If he does not become Secretary of State, it remains his seat. D LOCK
  • Michigan: D Carl Levin is up again. He will easily be re-elected. D LOCK
  • Minnesota: D Al Franken is up again. Can the right Republican make this a race? Maybe, but doubful. STRONG D
  • Mississippi: R Thad Cochran is up again. R LOCK
  • Montana: D Max Baucus is up again. This won’t be an easy race for him, but he has been re-elected a lot. TOSSUP/D LEAN
  • Nebraska: R Mike Johanns is up again. R LOCK
  • New Hampshire: D Jeanne Shaheen is up again. It looked like she would not run again, but she will. The right R can win this race, such as a Charlie Bass? LEANS D
  • New Jersey: D Frank Lautenberg is up again. The man is near 90. If he chooses to retire, could Chris Christie jump in? STRONG D
  • New Mexico: D Tom Udall is up again. New Mexico is no longer friendly to Republicans. D LOCK
  • North Carolina: D Kay Hagan is up again. This could be one of the best pickup chances for Republicans. The state is moving away from the Democrats. TOSSUP/R LEAN
  • Oklahoma: R Jim Inhofe is up again. R LOCK
  • Oregon: D Jeff Merkley is up again. Not terrible popular. If Congressman Greg Walden jumps in, could be a great pickup. D LEAN
  • Rhode Island: D Jack Reed is up again. Depending on an appointment to the Obama cabinet or not, its still Rhode Island. D LOCK
  • South Carolina: R Linsdey Graham is up again. Graham is not terribly popular in SC, but any R who wins that primary wins the seat. R LOCK
  • South Dakota: D Tim Johnson is up again. Another seriously hard race for Democrats, Republicans have the history to beat him. TOSSUP/R LEAN
  • Tennessee: R Lamar Alexander is up again. R LOCK
  • Texas: R John Cornyn is up again. The state isn’t a swingy one yet. R LOCK
  • Virginia: D Mark Warner is up again. If he runs again, it won’t be an easy race. No indication if he is running again or not. Term-limited Bob McDonnell could be a strong opponent. D LEAN
  • West Virginia: D Jay Rockefeller is up again. This one is an easy pickup for Republicans. Congresswoman Shelley Capito Moore will jump in. R PICKUP
  • Wyoming: R Mike Enzi is up again. R LOCK

Right now, the Senate is 55-45 in favor of the Democrats.

At a minimum, it will be 50-50 but the Republicans can pick up a minimum of 5 seats (Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, West Virginia). Other potentials: Iowa, Oregon, South Dakota, Virginia to give the GOP the majority.

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