Category Archives: 2012 Senate

The Lucky Senate 7

Crossroads is up with ads in SEVEN Senate races. Big money drop.

Maine – Summers (R), King (I), Dill (D) – Tossup/Tilt I

Indiana – Murdock (R), Donnelly (D) – Lean R

Montana – Rehberg (R), Tester (D) – Tossup/Lean R

Nevada – Heller (R), Berkley (D) – Tossup/Lean R

North Dakota – Berg (R), Heitkamp (D) – Tossup

Virginia – Allen (R), Kaine (D) – Tossup

Wisconsin – Thompson (R), Baldwin (D) – Tossup


Every single one of these seven races is a tossup or lean R type race. Seven states, seven races, $5 million in ads.

Romney’s Trickle Down Effect

Romney’s masterful debate performance could bolster downballot Republicans in swing states across the country.

After the debate, he’s now down two, 45-47 in Pennsylvania, and the GOP challenger to Dem. Sen. Casey now trails 44-46. Windfall.

New LV Journal Poll shows Obama up one in Nevada, 47-46. That should give GOP Sen. Dean Heller some more breathing room against Shelley Berkley.

Improving poll numbers in OH, WI, VA, FL could hypothetically help Mandel, Thompson, Allen, and Mack, respectively. Where it needs to help is places like MA (Brown), CA (Emken), MI (Hoekstra), MN (Billings), and HI (Lingle).

House races should benefit remarkably in these states too. Maybe the GOP is going to add to their majority, rather than the conventional wisdom of losing a seat or two.

Either way, trickle down does work. Take that.

Suffolk Polling: We’re not polling Florida, Virginia, or North Carolina anymore, because Romney is going to win those.

If that’s the case, and you put PA as a tossup, it’s Romney 248-Obama 217 (237 with PA). NV, WI, OH, IA, CO, OH, NH are left.

Is the Tide Actually Turning?

It sure seems so. Poll after poll show Romney leading nationally, gaining in the swing states. Obama is treading water, the Dems seem to be in disarray, and there’s a rumored campaign shake up.

Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP has Romney up 2 nationally, 49-47. This is in contrast to Obama up 49-45 last time.

Rasmussen, 48-48. Romney up in the swing state poll.

Siena has Pennsylvania a 3 point race with a lot of undecideds (which is odd less than a month out)…

Gallup has Obama up 5 in the tracker, but they are switching to likely voters today. Expect a dead heat or small Romney lead. UPDATE: 49-46 Obama among RV; 49-47 Romney among LV.

UPDATE: More polls!

  • Colorado: 50-46 Romney (ARG)
  • North Carolina: 50-41 Romney (Gravis)
  • Ohio: Romney 48-47 Romney (ARG); 45-44 Obama (Survey USA)
  • Nevada: 47-47 (Ras)….that’s a biggie, if Romney can take Nevada, he has that many more options to 270

I’m started to become less worried about the Presidency and more worried about the Senate…

  • Ras has McMahon trailing 46-51, but tied with leaners.
  • Brown and Warren race is still too close to see anything, poll yesterday had Warren +5 and today another had Brown +3.
  • North Dakota still looks to be a dead heat…Berg is underperforming Romney by a lot.
  • Virginia is going to go down the last vote, that’s a given.

Beatdown in Boston

Senator Scott Brown and Professor Elizabeth Warren went head to head today. Two great moments:

Brown to Warren: “I’m not a student in your classroom.” BOOM HEADSHOT

Elizabeth Warren mocks Scott Brown’s answer on SCOTUS judges. Brown says Scalia..Kennedy…Roberts…Sotomayer. Warren lists Kagan….her boss at Harvard.

Elitism at its finest. Can Warren even name four justices?

I think Senator Brown will be back in Washington.

Time to Go All In

Todd Akin is officially the nominee in Missouri. The deadline has passed and he is the nominee for the Missouri Senate Seat being rented by Claire McCaskill.

Time to go all in. Missouri is crucial to the Republicans taking over the Senate. Jim Demint is in. Rick Santorum is in. Roy Blunt is in. NRSC, get in!

Montana is a win
North Dakota in a win
Wisconsin is a win
Nebraska is a win
Massachusetts is a retain
Nevada is a retain

50-48-1…Missouri has to be won.

Let’s go.

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