Category Archives: 47%

I Can Make Up Polls Too

Someone should hire me, my polls are probably a thousand times better than CBS and Quinnipiac. Why is that? Let’s look at their Ohio poll:

  • Obama leads Romney 50-45. The sample: 35/26/34. D+9….nearly double the margin from 2008. Who the heck believes the Democrats are MORE enthused this year and the Republicans will turn out at their lowest point in half a century? Hint: no one.
  • Romney is up 7 with independents….a 15-point shift from 2008…
  • D+9…5 point lead….losing independents by high single-digits…and only a 5 point lead is…wow, not good for Team Obama.

NBC/WSJ national poll has the race tied at 47%. Why is this one bad for Team Obama:

  • 41/53 right/wrong direction
  • 49/48 Obama job approval; 46/52 on economy
  • Only 37% asked where McCain voters
  • 44/38/15 with leaners…independents way way way undersampled
  • Romney +2 in the gender gap…huge.

Romney +2 in Rasmussen; +3 in swing states

Romney +2 in GWU/Politico Battleground

Tied in PPP

Romney +7 in Gallup as of yesterday (another day of the 7-day average will drop off today around noon)

Swing States

Per RCP averages (anomalies in parentheses)

Ohio Obama +2.2 (+1, +3, tie, +1….+5 is the anomaly…) its more like +1 right now

Florida Romney +2.1

Virginia Tie (-5 is the anomaly with Romney +1, 3, 1)

New Hampshire Romney +1 (the anomaly is Romney +3…Tie, +1, -1)

Colorado Romney +0.2 (-3 is the anomaly…-2, +1, +1, +4)

Iowa Obama +2.4 (Obama +8 is the anomaly…+2, tie, +3, -1)

Wisconsin Obama +2.8 (Obama +6 is the anomaly…+2, +3, +1, +2)

Right now I’m comfortable with Romney 261 – Obama 243….Iowa is a tossup (O+1)….Ohio is a tossup (O+1.25)…Wisconsin is a tossup (Obama +2)…the rest are trending Romney (FL, VA, NH, CO)…

Third debate tonight….WEEEEEE

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Around the Horn, 10/18: This Day in Politics

  • Surprise! Jobless claims rise. Numbers adjusted to reflect bad data. I’m so surprised. “In the week ending October 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 388,000, an increase of 46,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 342,000.” Recovery!! /sarc
  • White House says Obama will veto any bill blocking the fiscal cliff unless it raises taxes on the rich. “Freed from the political and economic constraints that have tied his hands in the past, Obama is ready to play hardball with Republicans, who have so far successfully resisted a deal to tame the debt that includes higher taxes, Obama’s allies say.” It means he is toast, he knows he is losing and he just wants to screw us one last time.
  • Crazy Uncle Joe opens his mouth again: “We are absolutely — this is to our core — my daughter, and my granddaughters and Barack’s daughters are entitled to every single solitary operation! EVERY SINGLE SOLITARY OPERATION!” But not men, because no one needs their vote! /War on Men
  • Mark Halperin says, are you kidding me? 3 weeks form the election and Obama is focused on “binders of women?” It’s called a desperation strategy/grasping at straws. Please look away and continue voting.
  • Rasmussen Daily Tracking: Romney 49 – Obama 46. Romney is gaining separation even post-second debate. With learners: 49-47 Romney. 47%…just like Romney said…
  • Michelle Obama: “See, but your president, he didn’t point fingers. He didn’t place blame. Instead, he got to work, because he was thinking about folks like my dad and like his grandmother.” Right, please ignore Obama and his surrogates screaming BUSH!!!!1!!!!11 as loud as they can with their fingers in their ears. Michelle goes under the bus in 3…2…1…

First Presidential Debate = BINGO!

Get your checklist out for tonight. The first presidential debate will take place tonight, in Colorado, and as usual, we can play BINGO with buzzwords:

big government

bipartisan

Reagan

Bush

Supreme Court

abortion

debt ceiling

fiscal cliff

bailout

energy independencd

Social Security

Medicare

jobs

unemployment

middle class

(insert foreign country)

(Insert foreign leader)

leading from behind

Wall Street

(insert random US cabinet department)

fiscal cliff

troops

transparency

Obamacare/Affordable Care Act/Romneycare

99% and/or 47%

“you didn’t build that”

bin Laden

Fast and Furious

(insert swing state)

I would be shocked – hell, I might drop dead – if 90% of those don’t show up tonight.

The Whole Truth and Nothing But the Truth

Ok, let’s stop making a big deal over nothing. Romney told the truth and yes, good for him, because few politicians are willing to tell you the truth.

What did he do?

1. Romney said, in a closed-door, private fundraiser, that 47% of Americans pay no income tax/believe they are victims. and he can never convince them that they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives. How is this wrong?

According to the Tax Policy Center, 46.4% of Americans pay zero or negative income taxes. According to the Census Bureau, 49% of Americans live in households that receives entitlements through Medicare, Medicaid, housing assistance, or food stamps.

So he’s not wrong. 47% of Americans don’t pay income tax…and he lowballed the amount on entitlements by 2%.  This is not going to lose the election for Romney. He’s telling you the truth, 47% of Americans are not going to vote for him because he wants to get them off government assistance by lifting them up, something all Americans should strive to do for their fellow men.

2. Romney says peace between Israelis and Palestinians is almost unthinkable, because Palestinians have no interest whatsoever in establishing peace, and that pathway to peace is almost unthinkable to accomplish.

That’s true. Romney (and I, and many others) believe in a two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians. But Palestinians have a long habit of saying one thing to us and the Israelis in English and turning around and saying something else to everyone else, since the end of the Clinton days.

All we bother doing is kicking the can down the road, through peace conferences and bi-lateral talks and summits, that go nowhere. No one has really taken an active role in the two-state solution and no one cared enough like Condoleezza Rice and President Bush. Until the Palestinians are willing to negotiate, it won’t happen.

So there you have it…Romney told the truth. Is that such a bad thing nowadays?

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