Category Archives: Begich

2014 is not that far off

The GOP screwed the pooch in 2010 and 2014. I hope – HOPE – they learned their lessons in time for 2014.

The entire House is up and 20 Democratic Senators and 13 Republican Senators are up for re-election. Let’s look at those.

  • Alabama: R Jeff Sessions is up again. R LOCK
  • Alaska: D Mark Begich is up again. Alaska is still a very GOP/Libertarian state. The right candidate can pick up this seat (SARAH?!?!). TOSS UP
  • Arkansas: D Mark Pryor is up again. Arkansas is a state that has become very unfriendly for Democrats since 2010. No shortage of good candidates. R PICKUP
  • Colorado: D Mark Udall is up again. A race with a moderate/libertarian-ish Republican can pick this up (a la Jane Norton, Bill Owens). LEANS D
  • Delaware: D Chris Coons is up again. If Mike Castle runs again, maybe? STRONG D/LOCK
  • Georgia: R Saxy Chambliss is up again. R LOCK
  • Illinois: D Dick Durbin is up again. D LOCK
  • Idaho: R Jim Risch is up again. R LOCK
  • Iowa: D Tom Harkin is up again. There are some good Republicans that can run in this race – Latham, King, Brandstad. LEANS D
  • Kansas: R Pat Roberts is up again. R LOCK
  • Kentucky: R Mitch McConnell is up again. A strong D candidate could beat him, but I don’t think Kentucky has the bench. STRONG R
  • Louisiana: D Mary Landrieu is up again. A state that has turned away from Democrats, I could see her losing this seat easily. TOSSUP/R PICKUP
  • Maine: R Susan Collins is up again. If she runs (and no indication she isn’t), she wins. R LOCK
  • Massachusetts: D John Kerry is up again. If he does not become Secretary of State, it remains his seat. D LOCK
  • Michigan: D Carl Levin is up again. He will easily be re-elected. D LOCK
  • Minnesota: D Al Franken is up again. Can the right Republican make this a race? Maybe, but doubful. STRONG D
  • Mississippi: R Thad Cochran is up again. R LOCK
  • Montana: D Max Baucus is up again. This won’t be an easy race for him, but he has been re-elected a lot. TOSSUP/D LEAN
  • Nebraska: R Mike Johanns is up again. R LOCK
  • New Hampshire: D Jeanne Shaheen is up again. It looked like she would not run again, but she will. The right R can win this race, such as a Charlie Bass? LEANS D
  • New Jersey: D Frank Lautenberg is up again. The man is near 90. If he chooses to retire, could Chris Christie jump in? STRONG D
  • New Mexico: D Tom Udall is up again. New Mexico is no longer friendly to Republicans. D LOCK
  • North Carolina: D Kay Hagan is up again. This could be one of the best pickup chances for Republicans. The state is moving away from the Democrats. TOSSUP/R LEAN
  • Oklahoma: R Jim Inhofe is up again. R LOCK
  • Oregon: D Jeff Merkley is up again. Not terrible popular. If Congressman Greg Walden jumps in, could be a great pickup. D LEAN
  • Rhode Island: D Jack Reed is up again. Depending on an appointment to the Obama cabinet or not, its still Rhode Island. D LOCK
  • South Carolina: R Linsdey Graham is up again. Graham is not terribly popular in SC, but any R who wins that primary wins the seat. R LOCK
  • South Dakota: D Tim Johnson is up again. Another seriously hard race for Democrats, Republicans have the history to beat him. TOSSUP/R LEAN
  • Tennessee: R Lamar Alexander is up again. R LOCK
  • Texas: R John Cornyn is up again. The state isn’t a swingy one yet. R LOCK
  • Virginia: D Mark Warner is up again. If he runs again, it won’t be an easy race. No indication if he is running again or not. Term-limited Bob McDonnell could be a strong opponent. D LEAN
  • West Virginia: D Jay Rockefeller is up again. This one is an easy pickup for Republicans. Congresswoman Shelley Capito Moore will jump in. R PICKUP
  • Wyoming: R Mike Enzi is up again. R LOCK

Right now, the Senate is 55-45 in favor of the Democrats.

At a minimum, it will be 50-50 but the Republicans can pick up a minimum of 5 seats (Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, West Virginia). Other potentials: Iowa, Oregon, South Dakota, Virginia to give the GOP the majority.

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Morning Dump, August 22nd

Happy Hump Day, readers! Let’s get right down to it…this week already feels like it is just swirling around the toilet bowl, eh?

World News

U.S. News

Akin Watch: Day 2

  • Cook Political Report moves MO Senate Race from “Tossup” to “Lean Democrat.” Yeesh
  • Sarah Palin (henceforth known as “The Boss” in thisĀ  blog) called on MO Republicans to start working on a write-in candidate in order to defeat McCaskill. Akin can still remove himself (through courts) by September 25th, so there’s a chance. MO has a “sore loser” law, meaning defeated candidates cannot run on another party in the General. So Steelman and Brunner cannot be run as write-ins, paving the way for one of the many qualified men and women to take his place. My favorite scenario: bait-and-switch, putting Ann Wagner on the Senate ticket and Akin back on his Congressional ticket. Wagner is an accomplished fundraiser with a sterling resume.
  • Eleven reasons Todd Akin didn’t quit.

Presidential/Electoral College update coming later today! Some changes in the works.

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