Category Archives: Candy Crowley

Post Debate Spin

It was AWFUL.

Disrespectful, unprofessional, devoid of substance, facts, and just awful.

Obama lied. Romney distorted. Crowley was awful.

The American people lost.

More in the morning. Until then:

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Tonight’s Debate Prep

Don’t expect a gamechange. (God, is anyone else sick of that word yet?) Here’s why:

  1. The format does not lend itself to a gamechange type of performance. A townhall setting, Romney and Obama must focus more on the audience and less on each other. That means less digs, less attacks, and more emotional appeals. Very little chance to grab momentum early and hang on.
  2. Both candidates are awful in this format. Obama tends to ramble in these types of settings and off-the-cuff remarks tend to hurt him the most, leading to his gaffes. As for Romney, it was in a townhall format he said he likes to fire people. Both these candidates are subpar on the fly and this creates a lot of room for error and discomfort. Neither will dominate.
  3. The middle debate tends to matter the least. The first debate was dominated by domestic policy and the last debate will be foreign policy. This is going to be a mostly campaign message/stump speech type of “debate” talking to undecided, likely voters, selected by an independent organization. Everyone remembers the first debate and the last debate.

The candidates differ greatly in preparation for this debate. Obama put himself in seclusion at a resort to do prep for the past few days; Romney has been doing townhall style campaign events to prepare. Obama will be better prepped than last time, but so will Romney. There will be no winner in this debate.

On Good Polls, Bad Polls, and Candy Crowley

Let’s start at the very beginning.

  • WaPo/ABC: Obama 49, Romney 46 among LV. The caveat: D+9. Two cycles from D+8 and one cycle from tied turnout, suddenly, Democrats are more energized than 2008? As if. Obama up 3 with a D+9 translates to more like Romney +2 with a D+6 or even Romney +4 with a D+4 (more likely).

And followed it up with:

  • ARG on Iowa: tie race at 48-48. Last month, Obama was up 7. D+1 (same as 2008).
  • ARG in Virginia has Romney +1. Last month, Obama +2. D+5 (D+6 in 2008).
  • ARG National has Romney +1 on a D+4. Leads indys by 14. Obama cannot and will not win losing independents by double digits.
  • Gravis has Colorado Obama +2.
  • PPP has North Carolina Romney +2. Sample way more Democratic than it will be this year.
  • PPP has Romney +1 in Florida.
  • PPP has Obama +5 in Ohio.

And on Candy Crowley:

  • Both debates are not happy with what Crowley believes her role is in the debates. She is a facilitator, as this debate is more a “town hall” style debate. She believes she can steer the conversation instead of moderating it. No. This is the same woman who called the Romney-Ryan ticket a “death wish.” Impartial moderator my Aunt Fanny.

 

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