Category Archives: Christie

Big Tent Republicanism and Looking Ahead to 2016

Former Secretary of State Condi Rice was on CBS this morning to talk election aftermath and where the GOP goes from here.

“Right now, for me the most powerful argument is that the changing demographics in the country really necessitates an even bigger tent for the Republican Party. I also think that many of the things for which the party stands are broadly popular with the American people — fiscal responsibility, a chance to educate your children in the way that you think best, the possibility of strong national defense — these are all things I think that can unite us,” Rice said.

She continued: “But when you look at the composition of the electorate, clearly, we are losing important segments of that electorate and what we have to do is to appeal to those people not as identity groups but understanding that if you can get the identity issue out of the way, then you can appeal on the broader issues that all Americans share a concern for.”

If you listened to Condi’s speech at the GOP Convention, she talked about this…about how the message of the Republican Party is to give the people opportunity to advance. We need to become a bigger, more inclusive party, pushing a message of freedom, opportunity, individual liberty, and social advancement through personal ambition.

Condi, who is in favor of civil unions and a comprehensive immigration reform, is the right speaker for our party. Strong on national defense and security and where our party needs to go on social issues. She’s an advocate for school choice and will make a great spokesperson for our party.

Moving forward, the path to the 2016 nomination looks twofold: for the Democrats, it goes through Hillary Clinton. According to PPP, in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Florida, Hillary races out of the pack and would be the clear favorite to succeed President Obama. If she chooses not to run, it looks like a knock down, drag out fight between Vice President Biden, NY Governor Andrew Cuomo, and MD Governor Martin O’Malley, with others sprinkled in.

For the Republicans, there is no clear favorite. In Iowa, Mike Huckabee; in New Hampshire, Chris Christie; in Florida, Jeb Bush. Paul Ryan, Condi Rice, and Rick Santorum are in the mix as well. Personally, I do not think Jeb will run, he knows he missed his chance and his mentee, Marco Rubio, will be one of the hot names. Jeb will be Education Secretary in a future administration or a viable candidate against Bill Nelson in 2018. Sarah Palin will not run and I encourage her to run for Senate in 2014. Rick Santorum’s time has come and gone, as has Mike Huckabee’s. I think Chris Christie is viable if he wins the governorship in 2013 again; if he loses, he might need to redeem himself with a Senate race in 2014. I wish wish wish wish wish Condi Rice will run but I think her path is the 2014 California Governor’s Race and she will win it.

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Comparing the Benches

So with the Republican National Conference over and the Democratic National Convention starting, one only has to look at the speakers to see who the rising stars (“the benches”) are for each party. Let’s put them in a depth chart

Republicans:

  • First String: VA Gov. Bob McDonnell; WI Gov. Scott Walker; SC Gov. Nikki Haley; NJ Gov. Chris Christie; LA Gov. Bobby Jindal; SD Sen. John Thune; Former Sec. of State Condoleezza Rice; WI  Rep. Paul Ryan; FL Sen. Marco Rubio
  • Second String: NH Sen. Kelly Ayotte; OK Gov. Mary Fallin; NV Gov. Brian Sandoval; KY Sen. Rand Paul; OH Sen. Rob Portman; PR Gov. Luis Fortuño; NM Gov. Susana Martinez; Former FL Gov. Jeb Bush; TX Sen. Ted Cruz
  • Third String: ND Sen. John Hoeven; TN Rep. Marsha Blackburn; WA Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rodgers; Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love; OH Gov. John Kasich; Former MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty

Democrats

  • First String: CO Gov. John Hickenlooper; Former VA Gov. Tim Kaine; MD Gov. Martin O’Malley; Secretary of State Hillary Clinton; MT Gov. Brian Schweitzer; MA Senate Candidate Elizabeth Warren
  • Second String: Newark Mayor Corey Booker; San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro; Chicago Mayor Rahm Emmanuel; Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx; NC Sen. Kay Hagan; Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter; Vice President Joe Biden; MN Senator Amy Klobuchar; Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Vilagarossa
  • Third String: WI Senate Candidate Tammy Baldwin; House of Representatives Candidate Joaquin Castro; MA Gov. Deval Patrick; Former OH Gov. Ted Strickland; Houston Mayor Annisse Parker

Morning Dump, September 4, 2012

Holy cow, it is September. Now I have to get used to writing that instead of August (as I originally typed in the heading)

Weekend Polls (with my interest tidbits)

  • All tied up in NC per PPP, 48-48. Interesting notes: +7 in favorability for Romney since last poll; biggest winners from the GOP Convention were Condi Rice (62/25) and Ann Romney (54/26)…Rubio +17, Martinez +16, Christie +8, Ryan +4
  • No bounce in Florida, per PPP, 48-47 Obama. Interesting notes: +5 in favorability for Romney since last poll; biggest winners from GOP Convention were Condi Rice (66/22) and Ann Romney (56/22)…Rubio +18, Martinez +19, Christie +9, Ryan +7 (lol Mediscare)
  • Colorado narrowing, per PPP, 49-46 Obama. Interesting notes: +3 in favorability for Romney since last poll; biggest winners from GOP Convention were Condi Rice (65/22) and Ann Romney (50/31)…Rubio +18, Martinez +20, Christie +9, Ryan +5
  • Michigan narrowing, per PPP, 51-44 Obama. Interesting notes: Romney is -4 in favorability in his “home state;” biggest winners from the GOP convention: Condi Rice (64/21) and Ann Romney (51/27)…Rubio +13, Martinez +18, Christie +6, Ryan +5

What I gather: the convention boosted Romney’s favorability in key states; Ryan is seen positively at this point; Ann Romney continues to be a boost for the campaign; and holy cow Condi Rice is LOVED

The Democratic National Convention starts tonight, with San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro as the keynote. I’ll be tuning it for that.

Mid-Morning Dump, August 28th

Not so much a mid-morning dump as usual, just some things to ponder.

  • Republican National Convention starts today. There’s a surprise speaker on Thursday…The Boss?! Roll call for Pres/VP is tonight, along with Kelly Ayotte, Mary Fallin, Bob McDonnell, Scott Walker, Nikki Haley, Ann Romney, and Chris Christie.
  • Second CT Senate poll (Q-poll) shows the same as Rasmussen…49-46 Linda McMahon over Chris Murphy. Second time around?
  • CBS poll: Obama 46-45 over Romney amongst registered voters; ABC had it 47/46 Romney yesterday; 7-day Gallup, Romney +1; 3-day Rasmussen Obama +2
  • New Orleans is gonna be hammered again…by Isaac this time. Predicted to hit 7 years, to the day, after Katrina.

That’s about it. Doing this all day:

Hill-Dog is Ready to Rumble

So a lot of chatter that Pres. Obama asked Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to take over the VP spot and have VP Joe Biden step down for “medical reasons” or just plain retire (Or did he? Rumors also that is was confidant and pain the ass Valerie Jarrett who asked her).

The Washington Examiner said she was approached and rejected the invitation two weeks ago.

“As recently as a couple of weeks ago, the White House was putting out feelers to see if Hillary Clinton was interested in replacing Joe Biden on the ticket,” Klein told Secrets. “Bill Clinton, I’m told, was urging his wife to accept the number two spot if it was formally offered. Bill sees the vice presidency as the perfect launching pad for Hillary to run for president in 2016.”

Two vice presidents for the price of one!!

But this idea has a lot of pros and cons and could destroy the Democratic Party or give it a huge boost for years to come. Let’s discuss:

Pros

  • Secretary Clinton is POPULAR. Head cheerleader popular. Like, oh my god. Talk about a boost to Obama’s iffy re-elect chances.
  • If she’s added and Obama-Clinton wins in 2012, you immediately have a top-tier candidate for 2016. She does (and always will, so will Bill) have ambitions about her being President. This lays the groundwork and she’s immediately the top of the pack in ’16 (take that, Elizabeth Warren!)
  • If she is added and Obama-Clinton wins in 2012 AND it is a successful second term for Obama, guess who gets a lot of the credit? Vice President Hillary Clinton. Which would probably put her as the odds-on favorite to beat whoever the GOP runs in 2016 (take that, Chris Christie!)

Cons

  • She hurts the ticket. The Democratic Party is torn apart by the dumping of Biden and makes Obama out to look like he’s scared shitless (which he is…I mean, Seamus…chains…tax returns…)! This tanks his chances for re-elect because no incumbent President has dumped his VP while running for a second term since 1944.
  • She’s added to the ticket and they lost. Now she’s a loser. She can still run in ’16, but guess what…Elizabeth Warren, Andrew Cuomo, and Martin O’Malley are nipping at her heels and ready to blame her for the ’12 loss. Cannibalism is the funnest part of politics!
  • She’s added to the ticket and they win, but Obama’s second term is worse than his first. She’s still the favorite to win the Democratic nomination (most likely), but she’s looking to get demolished  by whomever the GOP runs (Christie, Ryan, Rubio, whatever….she could lose to Palin if the conditions are right).

Not sure the pros outweigh the cons in this case. And neither did she. Her best bet is to retire as Secretary of State and start laying the groundwork for a 2016 run regardless of what happens. She can run to succeed Obama (most likely successor) or she can run to challenge the incumbent President Mitt Romney.

Klein has sources deep in the Clinton camp and he said that they said she is eager for a rest followed by a makeover. “She clearly is exhausted. She needs to lose weight and get her energy back for a four-year slog.”

So pull out those placards and bumper stickers and a sharpie folks. Hillary ’16??

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