Category Archives: CT Senate

Morning Dump, August 10th

  • Linda McMahon files complaint against Chris Murphy for a private equity loan he got for a home. It won’t lead to legal troubles, but it will lead to some press trouble.
  • Obama edged Romney in fundraising: $114m to $111.6m. First time in a few months that has happened, though this is Romney’s highest fundraising month to date AND third straight $100m month. Convention months are easy for fundraising.
  • Senator Dianne Feinstein walks out of interview when challenged to debate her opponent, Autism activist Elizabeth Emken. Really unacceptable not to debate your opponent. Perhaps some good press for Emken
  • Rand Paul: expand the GOP tent and pick up Libertarians. YES PLEASE! Libertarians would help the party HUGELY in the Northeast (New Hampshire, Maine, Connecticut) and the West (Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico).

Mid-Morning Dump, August 28th

Not so much a mid-morning dump as usual, just some things to ponder.

  • Republican National Convention starts today. There’s a surprise speaker on Thursday…The Boss?! Roll call for Pres/VP is tonight, along with Kelly Ayotte, Mary Fallin, Bob McDonnell, Scott Walker, Nikki Haley, Ann Romney, and Chris Christie.
  • Second CT Senate poll (Q-poll) shows the same as Rasmussen…49-46 Linda McMahon over Chris Murphy. Second time around?
  • CBS poll: Obama 46-45 over Romney amongst registered voters; ABC had it 47/46 Romney yesterday; 7-day Gallup, Romney +1; 3-day Rasmussen Obama +2
  • New Orleans is gonna be hammered again…by Isaac this time. Predicted to hit 7 years, to the day, after Katrina.

That’s about it. Doing this all day:

Akin for Control of the Senate

So, maybe the news isn’t all bad for Republican control of the Senate? Let’s go straight to predictions and explanations!

  • Arizona: No change from last week. MODERATE GOP LEAN/HOLD
  • California: No change from last week. I’m excited to see Emken go on CNN Monday morning. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
  • Connecticut: This one has moved into a tossup. A new poll had McMahon up 49-46 and Connecticut looks a lot less friendly to Obama. Could a Republican upset happen here? Until I see another poll tell me otherwise, I say yes. TOSSUP/GOP PICKUP
  • Delaware: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Florida: No change. I still think the way Florida goes in November decides the winner between Nelson and Mack. TOSSUP/GOP PICKUP
  • Hawaii: No change yet. Hirono and Lingle are going to debate 8 times between now and November. Lots of room for change. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Indiana: Still not a lot of polling, so no change. WEAK GOP LEAN/HOLD
  • Maine:No change. Still not a lot of polling and King has still not declared a caucus yet. MODERATE DEM LEAN/DEM PICKUP
  • Maryland: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Massachusetts: A PPP poll had Brown up 5 points yesterday. Looking like Brown’s race to lose.  TOSSUP/HOLD
  • Michigan: Two new polls have  given Hoekstra a lead and another Stabenow in the low single-digits. Romney’s coattails could make this an upset. TOSSUP/HOLD
  • Minnesota: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Mississippi: Incumbent: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
  • Missouri: Call it a tossup now. Actually, as long as Akin is the nominee, McCaskill will win. Weak Dem lean with the chance to jump back to GOP with a new nominee. WEAK DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Montana: Montana is looking RED as RED can be this year. Moving this to GOP lean. WEAK GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
  • Nebraska: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
  • Nevada: No change. MODERATE GOP LEAN/HOLD
  • New Jersey: No change. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • New Mexico: No change yet. TOSSUP/HOLD
  • New York: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • North Dakota: No change. MODERATE GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
  • Ohio: No change. WEAK DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Pennsylvania: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Rhode Island: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Tennessee: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
  • Texas: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
  • Utah: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
  • Vermont: No change. STRONG DEM (SOCIALIST) LEAN/HOLD
  • Virginia: Virginia is looking like a lean blue state in November, so I’m moving this one down to a Dem hold. TOSSUP/HOLD
  • Washington: No change. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • West Virginia: No change.  STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Wisconsin: Thompson looks to be getting stronger and Wisconsin is looking like a Romney state. Moving this up a little. MODERATE GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
  • Wyoming: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD

Last week I had it at 52-47-1 (GOP/Dem/Independent King); this week we have it at: 52-47-1. Haha. Missouri goes blue, Connecticut goes red. Total wash.

Linda McMahon: Smackdown Time in CT

So a new Rasmussen poll has Linda McMahon LEADING (!!!!!!!!!) Rep. Chris Murphy in the Connecticut Senate race. Remember, in 2010, A WAVE YEAR FOR THE GOP, McMahon, despite spending $50 million (dear Lord), couldn’t buy her way into the Senate.
The new poll, out today, has McMahon ahead of Murphy 49-46. That tells me three things: (1) Public opinion is generally solidified, with only 5% undecided/having no opinion; (2) McMahon is so, so close to 50%, a good sign for her and the GOP; and (3), could Murphy serving in the House be a detriment?

Hot Air breaks down the partisan leanings: 46/32/21 D/R/I compared to 2008 (43/27/31) and 2010 (39/28/33). A partisan breakdown between 2008 and 2010 is what is general expected this year. Women are 56/44 of the sample, which is +3 from 2008 and +7 from 2010. Interesting.

McMahon is leading among independents 55/31 and leads among 40-55 and 55+ (by 18) and only trailed by 9 (40/49) in the U-40 demo. I’m not going to say I’m surprised by the 55/31 spread among independents, PPP had Romney with a +7 edge with independents at the end of July, so this is possible.

Why is Murphy trailing? Probably because he is currently serving in the House. He has votes to defend. 44% of voters think the President’s health care law with affect Medicare, versus 43% who think Ryan’s plan will. 42% rate the economy good or fair, with 57% rating it poor.

If McMahon can hold on and win this seat, it would make a potential loss of Missouri that much easier to bear. And it gives Romney potential at the top of the ticket in a blue state in the NE.

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