Category Archives: Electoral College

The Buck Stops With Me; Polls; Ohio

So says Hillary Clinton. “I take full responsibility.” She threw herself under the Obama bus. As Newt said last night, she’s lost the 2016 primary and she lost the presidency yesterday. No Hill-Billy 2016 I guess…

Scattershots:

  • That Gallup/USA Today poll from yesterday has Obama +3 (51-48) in favorability and Romney +8 (52-44). 10 point swing since August!
  • PPP/Daily Kos/SEIU has Romney up 50-46 nationally. That’s a Democratic pollster with Romney at 50%.
  • AMA (American Medical Association) endorses Ryan-style Medicare reform. Take that, Joe Biden.
  • Could Pennsylvania be in play? This is ALWAYS the “gotcha” state for GOP every presidential cycle. Quinnipiac has Obama up 4, 50-46; Muhlenberg has Obama up 4, 49-45. If Romney can force Obama to spend money in the Keystone State and if it goes red on November 6, it’ll be a landslide for Romney.
  • New Hampshire poll from last night has it 47/47 in the presidential race. Not surprising.

Updated 2012 Map:

  • Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado move into the Romney camp. 257
  • Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania move into the Obama camp. 243
  • Iowa (6), Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10), and New Hampshire (4) are toss-up.

Why is Ohio so hard to figure out?

  • Exit polls in 2008 showed 39/33/30 DRI…based on actual results (Obama 51.5-46.9), actual party breakdown was 36.5/32.5/30 DRI…D+5, not D+8. Exit polls are the definition of inexact science. Almost every poll to date has a D+4 or higher, which ASSUMES higher Democratic turnout than 2008.
  • Romney is up with independents in every poll. Obama CANNOT win Ohio without winning independents, not if turnout is D+5 or lower.
  • One cannot assume D+5 turnout or higher, because: Romney is and has more money to spend on ads compared to McCain; Romney rallies are infinitely higher than McCain or even Palin rallies in 2008. Enthusiasm + money on the GOP side = win.

Second Presidential Debate tonight. I’ll have more on that later and a recap afterwards.

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The Electoral Tie Breaker

Some new polls out to make this race interesting:

  • VA, Romney up 51-44 (ARG)
  • FL, Romney up 51-47 (Rasmussen)
  • NH, Romney up 50-46 (ARG)
  • Maine, an internal has Romney down 44-48 and leading in Maine’s 2nd CD…the potential tie breaker

According to a new poll shared exclusively with POLITICO, Mitt Romney is leading President Obama in a congressional district in Maine — raising the possibility of the GOP nominee winning an electoral vote in a deep blue state.

The live-call poll, conducted by Glen Bolger of NMB Research and provided to POLITICO by American Crossroads communications director Jonathan Collegio, shows Obama winning statewide 48 percent to 44 percent.

That result already puts Romney in a surprisingly competitive position in a nominally blue state.

But in Maine’s second congressional district, Romney actually tops Obama 49 percent to 44 percent.

In most states, that such a result wouldn’t mean much. But Maine is one of two states in the country that splits its electoral college vote by congressional district.

The second congressional district, encompassing the northern and western part of the state, is largely rural and overwhelmingly white — groups that Obama has never done well among.

During redistricting, the Republican legislature also shifted two towns — Waterville and Winslow — that went heavily for Obama in 2008 from the second congressional district into the first — giving the GOP ticket a boost by removing two population centers from the district.

The idea of a state splitting its electoral vote is not farfetched either.

Obama famously won a single electoral vote in Nebraska’s second congressional district — encompassing Omaha and its suburbs.

The poll points to the surprising possibility of a similar situation in Maine — a state that has not voted for a Republican at the presidential level since 1988.

The poll surveyed 500 statewide likely voters, polled October 7-8 — giving the poll a margin of error of about plus or minus 4 percent.

In the RCP poll of polls:

  • Ohio, O+1.3
  • Florida, R+2
  • Virginia, O+0.6
  • North Carolina, R+3.3
  • Iowa, O+3.2
  • Colorado, R+0.6
  • Wisconsin, O+2.3
  • Missouri, R+5.2
  • New Hampshire, O+0.7
  • Nevada, O+1.6

The Virginia averages do not have the new ARG poll in there; NH, NV, WI, OH are all trending towards tied…Very interesting to watch.

My newest predictions: Romney 274-Obama 264. Romney takes ME-2, NH, VA, FL, NC, MO, IA, WI, and CO. He is the first Republican to win the presidency without Ohio.

An Unconventional Path For Romney

So everyone is going to blather on about how no GOP candidate has won the White House without Ohio. But, there exists a path for Romney…

Safe Seats:
Obama 237
Romney 191

Obama gains Nevada, New Hampshire (247)

Romney gains Colorado, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia (257)

That would put the election squarely on three battleground states – Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6), Ohio (18). Romney can take Ohio and win (277) or he can take Wisconsin and Iowa and win (273).

Wisconsin looks to be closing, Ohio still looks to be within the margin of error, and Iowa is within the margin of error. A lot of money is going to pour into these three states.

The real battleground is the Rust Belt.

Waking up on Wednesday, August 29th

So we wake up today, on Wednesday, and the world continue to turn. Good to note.

I’m gonna pack most of my usual posting’s today into one post to save myself time because I have an action-filled afternoon once again.

Dump

  • Juan Williams of Fox News calls Ann Romney a “corporate wife.” Must have missed her speech, because, to me, the wrong Romney is running. I have no idea what a corporate wife is, but it is not Ann Romney.
  • Condi Rice is working on a political comeback, but she does not anticipate a role in a Romney administration. Perhaps elected office in California? *Cough* run against Babs Boxer in 2016 *cough*
  • Clint Eastwood is heading to the RNC on Thursday. Surprise guest?
  • Thoughts and prayers go out to the people of New Orleans and the rest of Louisiana. I have friends in Baton Rouge and the suburbs of New Orleans.

Presidential Predictions – Wed, 8/29

  • No real news on this front. It continues to remain close with the majority of swing states in a dead heat. Last week’s prediction was: Romney 280, Obama 258. That will continue this week. Need to see polling post-both-conventions.
  • Gallup had Romney +2 before the convention. In their historical analysis, nearly every election cycle, the leader pre-conventions was the winner of the actual election. Just a thought.

And on a completely unrelated note, the first day of college football starts tomorrow!!!!!

Later tonight, look for my quick-thoughts on the Convention, Day 2 and tomorrow, videos and Senate predictions.

Polls…POLLS…POLLS!!

Time for some presidential polling and predictions! Please, don’t get so excited, you might pass out.

Gallup and Rasmussen have shown a consistent tie to Romney +2. WSJ/NBC last night has Obama +4 and AP today has Obama +1.

Update on some state polling done in the last week:

  • Survey USA in Nevada: Obama +2 (47/45)
  • Baydoun/Foster (D) in Michigan: Romney +4 (48/44)
  • PPP (D) in Wisconsin: Romney +1 (48/47)
  • PPP (D) in Virginia: Obama +5 (50/45)
  • CNN in Wisconsin: Obama +4 (49/45)
  • Rasmussen in Wisconsin: Romney +1 (48/47)
  • Rasmussen in Florida: Romney +2 (4/43)
  • Mitchell Research in Michigan: Obama +5 (49/44)
  • Franklin and Marshall in Pennsylvania: Obama +5 (47/42)

So let’s go state by state in our categories:

  • Solid Obama: California, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Washington D.C. (182)
  • Leans Obama: Connecticut*, New Mexico, Oregon**, Pennsylvania*** (39)
  • Tossup: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin (111)
  • Leans R: Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina (47)
  • Solid R: Alabama, Alaska Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming (159)

August 22nd Prediction: Romney 280-Obama 258 (+6 Obama)

Where the tossups went:

  • Nevada, Virginia to Obama (lost Colorado, gained Virginia)
  • Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin to Romney (lost Virginia, gained Colorado and Michigan)

 

*Connecticut moves from Solid to Leans on the basis of PPP polling that Obama has dropped -14 from 2008, from a 22-point win to only an 8-point lead.

**Oregon drops not due to polling, but because of an electoral “twinsies” with Wisconsin, but a teensy bit more liberal (hence, Leans, not Tossup)

***Pennsylvania drops due to polling

Winning? We talking about practice!

I think everyone has pretty much decided this election is gonna be on par with 2000 and 2004…only the select few get to even decide who wins. I’m pretty sure about 80% of the country doesn’t even need to vote. But for the lucky few, congratulations, you’re a swing state! Your prize: a lot of TV ads and visits and media coverage. Have fun with that.

*****

Purple Strategies polled some of the main swing states for 2012 and they tell us….nothing. Nothing that we didn’t already know. The race is close. Unsurprisingly close. It’s like a 1-1 ballgame and we are about to hit the 7th inning stretch. Keeping up with the metaphors, someone will screw up “Take Me Out to the Ballgame” or “God Bless America” during the stretch (Party Conventions) and the other will take the lead. But for now…. (with Swing State Scale too!)

  • Ohio…the battlegrounds of battlegrounds. If 2004 wasn’t fun enough for you Buckeye residents, you get to do it 8 years later! Romney-Ryan is up 46-44 after Obama/Biden were up 48-45 last month (-5 Obama). On the Swing State Scale: Migraine…it’ll be like this for a while
  • Virginia…the Johnny-come-Lately of battlegrounds. R/R up 48-45, a gain of +1 since July. On the Swing State Scale: Brain Tumor…the Senate race will make this one the most watched in the country
  • Colorado…also a relatively new swing state. O/B up 49-46, +2 since July. On the Swing State Scale: Tension Headache…should go away by the end of the conventions
  • Florida…don’t we know this one well. Party like it’s 2000! R/R up 48-47, -2 for Romney since July. Swing State Scale: Brain Tumor…the epicenter of Mediscare and a very watched Senate race

*****

Consider this “Wednesday Polling Update.” Wednesdays will be from now on my President Prediction Days. I’ll categorize Solid O, Leans O, Tossup, Leans R, Solid R and provide maps as well. I’ll do the Senate on Thursday (a lot of fun for me, trust me).

So without further ado…

Solid O: Washington, Oregon, California, Minnesota, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, D.C., Hawaii, Maryland, Rhode Island (212)

Leans O: New Mexico, Michigan (21)

Tossup: Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire (95)

Leans R: Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina (47)

Solid R: Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia (159)

Today’s Prediction: Romney/Ryan 286, Obama/Biden 252 (Linky for the map)

Where the tossups went:

  • Colorado, Nevada to Obama
  • Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire to Romney

*****

Tune in tomorrow for Senate predictions

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