Category Archives: Iowa

An Unconventional Path For Romney

So everyone is going to blather on about how no GOP candidate has won the White House without Ohio. But, there exists a path for Romney…

Safe Seats:
Obama 237
Romney 191

Obama gains Nevada, New Hampshire (247)

Romney gains Colorado, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia (257)

That would put the election squarely on three battleground states – Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6), Ohio (18). Romney can take Ohio and win (277) or he can take Wisconsin and Iowa and win (273).

Wisconsin looks to be closing, Ohio still looks to be within the margin of error, and Iowa is within the margin of error. A lot of money is going to pour into these three states.

The real battleground is the Rust Belt.

Garbage in, garbage out

Garbage polls by NBC/WSJ as per usual.

Wisconsin: Obama 50 – Romney 45

D/R/I: 33/28/38 (D+5)

Iowa: Obama 50 – Romney 42

D/R/I: 36/31/33 (D+5)

Colorado: Obama 50 – Romney 45

D/R/I: 34/32/32 (D+2)

 

As usual, the polling assumes a Democratic turnout nearly equal to 2008, the highwater for the Dems. D+6 was the turnout in 2008…I am about 99.9% sure November is going to be closer to D+2 or even.

Garbage in, garbage out. Polls create narratives. The media narrative: OBAMA IS WINNING. Internal polling says otherwise, or else Obama wouldn’t be in Iowa/Wisconsin considering the margin he won by in 2008.

Polls…POLLS…POLLS!!

Time for some presidential polling and predictions! Please, don’t get so excited, you might pass out.

Gallup and Rasmussen have shown a consistent tie to Romney +2. WSJ/NBC last night has Obama +4 and AP today has Obama +1.

Update on some state polling done in the last week:

  • Survey USA in Nevada: Obama +2 (47/45)
  • Baydoun/Foster (D) in Michigan: Romney +4 (48/44)
  • PPP (D) in Wisconsin: Romney +1 (48/47)
  • PPP (D) in Virginia: Obama +5 (50/45)
  • CNN in Wisconsin: Obama +4 (49/45)
  • Rasmussen in Wisconsin: Romney +1 (48/47)
  • Rasmussen in Florida: Romney +2 (4/43)
  • Mitchell Research in Michigan: Obama +5 (49/44)
  • Franklin and Marshall in Pennsylvania: Obama +5 (47/42)

So let’s go state by state in our categories:

  • Solid Obama: California, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Washington D.C. (182)
  • Leans Obama: Connecticut*, New Mexico, Oregon**, Pennsylvania*** (39)
  • Tossup: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin (111)
  • Leans R: Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina (47)
  • Solid R: Alabama, Alaska Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming (159)

August 22nd Prediction: Romney 280-Obama 258 (+6 Obama)

Where the tossups went:

  • Nevada, Virginia to Obama (lost Colorado, gained Virginia)
  • Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin to Romney (lost Virginia, gained Colorado and Michigan)

 

*Connecticut moves from Solid to Leans on the basis of PPP polling that Obama has dropped -14 from 2008, from a 22-point win to only an 8-point lead.

**Oregon drops not due to polling, but because of an electoral “twinsies” with Wisconsin, but a teensy bit more liberal (hence, Leans, not Tossup)

***Pennsylvania drops due to polling

Open Letter to Republicans: How Could You Have Been So Stupid?

August 21, 2012

An Open Letter to Republicans (Especially Conservatives) in America:

Do you not learn any type of lessons? They said the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. I guess that is also the definition of conservatism in voting.

For the second third election cycle, conservatives have chosen Senate candidates who cannot or will not win. Let’s look at them, shall we:

2008 (-8 seats and GOP loss of Senate)

  • Colorado: Bob Schaffer and his ties to Abramoff; lost a GOP seat
  • New Mexico: Steve Pearce, too conservative for the state; lost a GOP seat
  • Virginia: Jim Gilmore, failed 2008 presidential nominee; lost a GOP seat

2010 (+6 seats, but not enough to retake control)

  • Alaska: Joe Miller and the handcuffed journalist; held a GOP seat due to write-in by incumbent Murkowski
  • Colorado: Ken Buck instead of more popular, moderate Jane Norton; failed pickup opportunity, Dem retain
  • Connecticut: Linda McMahon instead of more moderate Rob Simmons; failed pickup opportunity, Dem retain
  • Delaware: Christine freaking O’Donnell over Mike Castle. Castle would have picked up this seat in a blowout….gosh darn, this still makes me mad; failed pickup opportunity, Dem retains.
  • Nevada: Sharon Angle instead of…anyone; failed pickup opportunity, Dem retains

2012 (yet to be determined)

  • Connecticut: Linda McMahon (again) over more moderate Chris Shays: Dem favorite to retain
  • Indiana: Richard Murdock over incumbent Richard Lugar; tossup status
  • Maine: Conservative grassroots HATE Olympia Snowe, pushing her into retirement, easily losing this seat; Dem favorite to pickup
  • Missouri: Todd Akin over Brunner or Steelman; one gaffe makes this a tossup versus GOP pickup

I will acknowledge the GOP base in some states made excellent decisions (Heather Wilson in NM, Tommy Thompson in WI) but Senate control is going to come down to 1 or 2 seats we could have won with better candidates.

The GOP base has to stop putting a litmus test on their candidates. You have to run the right Republican for certain states. Scott Brown isn’t the most conservative, but he’s the right Republican for Massachusetts. Same with Olympia Snowe/Susan Collins in Maine. The Democrats mastered this, picking up seats in 2006 and 2008 by running more moderate/conservative Democrats in states that lean more moderate/conservative: Florida, Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana, Louisiana.

If the GOP can’t win the Senate back in 2012, 2014 has to be the year if the right people are chosen for the right states. You have pickup opportunities in Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, West Virginia, Montana, New Hampshire, and North Carolina and no GOP seats in moderate states up for grabs except Maine, and Susan Collins is the right choice for Maine. At the least, 2014 should be a GOP +6 year (and a guaranteed GOP +3 year, because no way Begich, Pryor, or Landrieu are re-elected).

Don’t screw it up, guys. Stop putting ideological purity before elections. If you run the most conservative candidate and they lose, what was the point? Better to have someone who votes with you 80% of the time than someone who votes with you 20% of the time.

Morning Dump, August 16th

Good morning everyone. Now that you’ve had your coffee, sit upon your throne and let’s get to work:

Global News

U.S. News

  • Is Biden off the ticket? The Weekly Standard is reporting that at 10:45 ET, President Obama, Vice President Biden, and Secretary Clinton have a closed-to-press meeting in the Oval Office, followed by a private lunch between President Obama and VP Biden at 12:30 ET, also closed to the press. Could this be Obama having a “come to Jesus” talk with VP Biden that it is time to “retire for medical reasons” after his week of bad gaffes/press? FWIW, both former Gov. Sarah Palin and Sen. John McCain have called for him to removed…not that their opinions is anything more than a “bucket of warm spit” to Pres. Obama, to quote VP John Nance Garner.
  • Is Iowa on board with Obama? After a campaign trip to the Hawkeye State, the Des Moines Register reports Iowa residents believe Pres. Obama has to run on his record.

 

“An incumbent has to run on his record,” said Timothy Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. “Obama tried to deflect the poor results of his programs by first noting that he inherited the problem. But most people no longer care whose fault it was. They just want it fixed.”

  • Is Ryan a drag with Hispanic voters? Politico looks at the reasons why Rep. Paul Ryan might be a hindrance to Hispanic outreach for the Romney campaign. Most notably: he is part of a very unpopular Republican Congress and his stance on the Cuban embargo.

Texas News

  • Protesting the Feeding Ordinance: CM Helena Brown (Batshit Cray) joined protestors in serving meals to Houston’s homeless in violation of a new city ordinance that requires organizations get written consent from the city before feeding the homeless. Necessary of not?

And that’s your dump for the day. Senate Predictions coming up after lunch.

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