Michigan, Romney cuts the deficit from 37-47 to 45-48.
Pennsylvania, Romney cuts the deficit to two, 45-47. And he’s up by a point among those with an excellent chance to vote.
Because the mainstream media says so.
I mean, Romney is up 47-45 in Rasmussen Presidential and up 47-46 in the Rasmussen Swing State Tracking. OVER.
And now Gallup is showing Obama only up by 1, 47-46. Bounce? Gone. Election? OVER
Gravis has Romney up 1 in FL….Rasmussen has Romney up 3 in Colorado…Baydoun/Foster has Romney -2 in Michigan…Rasmussen has Romney -1 in Virgina…O.V.E.R.
So Dems…no need to go vote…this election is OVAH.
Holy cow, it is September. Now I have to get used to writing that instead of August (as I originally typed in the heading)
Weekend Polls (with my interest tidbits)
- All tied up in NC per PPP, 48-48. Interesting notes: +7 in favorability for Romney since last poll; biggest winners from the GOP Convention were Condi Rice (62/25) and Ann Romney (54/26)…Rubio +17, Martinez +16, Christie +8, Ryan +4
- No bounce in Florida, per PPP, 48-47 Obama. Interesting notes: +5 in favorability for Romney since last poll; biggest winners from GOP Convention were Condi Rice (66/22) and Ann Romney (56/22)…Rubio +18, Martinez +19, Christie +9, Ryan +7 (lol Mediscare)
- Colorado narrowing, per PPP, 49-46 Obama. Interesting notes: +3 in favorability for Romney since last poll; biggest winners from GOP Convention were Condi Rice (65/22) and Ann Romney (50/31)…Rubio +18, Martinez +20, Christie +9, Ryan +5
- Michigan narrowing, per PPP, 51-44 Obama. Interesting notes: Romney is -4 in favorability in his “home state;” biggest winners from the GOP convention: Condi Rice (64/21) and Ann Romney (51/27)…Rubio +13, Martinez +18, Christie +6, Ryan +5
What I gather: the convention boosted Romney’s favorability in key states; Ryan is seen positively at this point; Ann Romney continues to be a boost for the campaign; and holy cow Condi Rice is LOVED
The Democratic National Convention starts tonight, with San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro as the keynote. I’ll be tuning it for that.
So, maybe the news isn’t all bad for Republican control of the Senate? Let’s go straight to predictions and explanations!
- Arizona: No change from last week. MODERATE GOP LEAN/HOLD
- California: No change from last week. I’m excited to see Emken go on CNN Monday morning. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
- Connecticut: This one has moved into a tossup. A new poll had McMahon up 49-46 and Connecticut looks a lot less friendly to Obama. Could a Republican upset happen here? Until I see another poll tell me otherwise, I say yes. TOSSUP/GOP PICKUP
- Delaware: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Florida: No change. I still think the way Florida goes in November decides the winner between Nelson and Mack. TOSSUP/GOP PICKUP
- Hawaii: No change yet. Hirono and Lingle are going to debate 8 times between now and November. Lots of room for change. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Indiana: Still not a lot of polling, so no change. WEAK GOP LEAN/HOLD
- Maine:No change. Still not a lot of polling and King has still not declared a caucus yet. MODERATE DEM LEAN/DEM PICKUP
- Maryland: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Massachusetts: A PPP poll had Brown up 5 points yesterday. Looking like Brown’s race to lose. TOSSUP/HOLD
- Michigan: Two new polls have given Hoekstra a lead and another Stabenow in the low single-digits. Romney’s coattails could make this an upset. TOSSUP/HOLD
- Minnesota: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Mississippi: Incumbent: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
- Missouri: Call it a tossup now. Actually, as long as Akin is the nominee, McCaskill will win. Weak Dem lean with the chance to jump back to GOP with a new nominee. WEAK DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Montana: Montana is looking RED as RED can be this year. Moving this to GOP lean. WEAK GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
- Nebraska: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
- Nevada: No change. MODERATE GOP LEAN/HOLD
- New Jersey: No change. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
- New Mexico: No change yet. TOSSUP/HOLD
- New York: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
- North Dakota: No change. MODERATE GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
- Ohio: No change. WEAK DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Pennsylvania: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Rhode Island: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Tennessee: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
- Texas: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
- Utah: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
- Vermont: No change. STRONG DEM (SOCIALIST) LEAN/HOLD
- Virginia: Virginia is looking like a lean blue state in November, so I’m moving this one down to a Dem hold. TOSSUP/HOLD
- Washington: No change. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
- West Virginia: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Wisconsin: Thompson looks to be getting stronger and Wisconsin is looking like a Romney state. Moving this up a little. MODERATE GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
- Wyoming: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
Last week I had it at 52-47-1 (GOP/Dem/Independent King); this week we have it at: 52-47-1. Haha. Missouri goes blue, Connecticut goes red. Total wash.
Time for some presidential polling and predictions! Please, don’t get so excited, you might pass out.
Gallup and Rasmussen have shown a consistent tie to Romney +2. WSJ/NBC last night has Obama +4 and AP today has Obama +1.
Update on some state polling done in the last week:
- Survey USA in Nevada: Obama +2 (47/45)
- Baydoun/Foster (D) in Michigan: Romney +4 (48/44)
- PPP (D) in Wisconsin: Romney +1 (48/47)
- PPP (D) in Virginia: Obama +5 (50/45)
- CNN in Wisconsin: Obama +4 (49/45)
- Rasmussen in Wisconsin: Romney +1 (48/47)
- Rasmussen in Florida: Romney +2 (4/43)
- Mitchell Research in Michigan: Obama +5 (49/44)
- Franklin and Marshall in Pennsylvania: Obama +5 (47/42)
So let’s go state by state in our categories:
- Solid Obama: California, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Washington D.C. (182)
- Leans Obama: Connecticut*, New Mexico, Oregon**, Pennsylvania*** (39)
- Tossup: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin (111)
- Leans R: Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina (47)
- Solid R: Alabama, Alaska Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming (159)
August 22nd Prediction: Romney 280-Obama 258 (+6 Obama)
Where the tossups went:
- Nevada, Virginia to Obama (lost Colorado, gained Virginia)
- Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin to Romney (lost Virginia, gained Colorado and Michigan)
*Connecticut moves from Solid to Leans on the basis of PPP polling that Obama has dropped -14 from 2008, from a 22-point win to only an 8-point lead.
**Oregon drops not due to polling, but because of an electoral “twinsies” with Wisconsin, but a teensy bit more liberal (hence, Leans, not Tossup)
***Pennsylvania drops due to polling
Why do we not require anyone running for office to pass a mental fitness test? Seriously, it just puzzles me how these people want to be the ones to devise solutions to our country’s greatest problems.
Let’s take a look at some of these people we keep nominating to run for office:
- Dianne Feinstein (CA) let her “campaign treasurer” steal $4.5 million dollars from her campaign treasury right out from under her nose. Can’t handle my money, let me handle yours…
- Connie Mack IV (FL) has a feud going with the state’s most prominent journalist. Can’t handle a state journalist, but I’ll deal with NYT, WaPo, WSJ, etc just fine!
- Elizabeth Warren (MA) lied about her family’s ethnic background and using it to obtain diversity employment. No big deal, I didn’t mean it…I’ll never lie to you again!
- Richard Murdock (IN) told reporters his idea of compromise in Washington was the Democrats agreeing with Republicans, not vice versa. Only I know the answers, you must only listen to me!
- Pete Hoekstra (MI) with his highly-racist ad about the Chinese. I represent all the citizens, except the ones I offended
- Shelley Berkley (NV) funneled money towards the hospital where her husband is employed. No big deal, I just need my husband to make a little extra…
- Todd Akin (MO) said women who are legitimately raped don’t get pregnant. Oh I’m just gonna go ahead and fuck this one up…
- Michael Baumgartner (WA) wrote an email saying “Take a look at this Navy SEAL who died and then go f*ck yourself.” I can’t wait to tell Maria Cantwell to go f*ck herself in a debate
Yes, you should need to be of sound mind before running for office. Or being elected. This is democracy, not an idiocracy.