Category Archives: Mitt Romney

I Can Make Up Polls Too

Someone should hire me, my polls are probably a thousand times better than CBS and Quinnipiac. Why is that? Let’s look at their Ohio poll:

  • Obama leads Romney 50-45. The sample: 35/26/34. D+9….nearly double the margin from 2008. Who the heck believes the Democrats are MORE enthused this year and the Republicans will turn out at their lowest point in half a century? Hint: no one.
  • Romney is up 7 with independents….a 15-point shift from 2008…
  • D+9…5 point lead….losing independents by high single-digits…and only a 5 point lead is…wow, not good for Team Obama.

NBC/WSJ national poll has the race tied at 47%. Why is this one bad for Team Obama:

  • 41/53 right/wrong direction
  • 49/48 Obama job approval; 46/52 on economy
  • Only 37% asked where McCain voters
  • 44/38/15 with leaners…independents way way way undersampled
  • Romney +2 in the gender gap…huge.

Romney +2 in Rasmussen; +3 in swing states

Romney +2 in GWU/Politico Battleground

Tied in PPP

Romney +7 in Gallup as of yesterday (another day of the 7-day average will drop off today around noon)

Swing States

Per RCP averages (anomalies in parentheses)

Ohio Obama +2.2 (+1, +3, tie, +1….+5 is the anomaly…) its more like +1 right now

Florida Romney +2.1

Virginia Tie (-5 is the anomaly with Romney +1, 3, 1)

New Hampshire Romney +1 (the anomaly is Romney +3…Tie, +1, -1)

Colorado Romney +0.2 (-3 is the anomaly…-2, +1, +1, +4)

Iowa Obama +2.4 (Obama +8 is the anomaly…+2, tie, +3, -1)

Wisconsin Obama +2.8 (Obama +6 is the anomaly…+2, +3, +1, +2)

Right now I’m comfortable with Romney 261 – Obama 243….Iowa is a tossup (O+1)….Ohio is a tossup (O+1.25)…Wisconsin is a tossup (Obama +2)…the rest are trending Romney (FL, VA, NH, CO)…

Third debate tonight….WEEEEEE

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Family Ties

Politico is out with an article about how the Romney family is shaking up the campaign. Since their family is the size of a campaign staff, I guess that works well.

What followed was a family intervention. The candidate’s family prevailed on Mitt Romney, and the campaign operation, to shake things up dramatically, according to campaign insiders. The family pushed for a new message, putting an emphasis on a softer and more moderate image for the GOP nominee — a “let Mitt be Mitt” approach they believed more accurately reflected the looser, generous and more approachable man they knew.

Smart idea. Mitt isn’t an idiot and he’s not an empty suit. Let him be himself, it’s why he is so successful.

One result was Monday’s foreign policy speech at Virginia Military Institute. Aides are now considering following it up with a speech on jobs and the economy, and then one on debt and spending. Another one on energy has also been discussed. The economic speech is designed as a high-profile pushback to the Obama campaign’s attacks. One adviser, invoking the famous Bob Dole quote from 1988, said the gist will be: “Stop lying about my record.”’

I think this is a fantastic idea. Go right at Obama between the debates.

But the biggest change in the ecology, according to the insiders, is the more assertive role of Tagg Romney, who has been “making sure that his father’s environment is such that he’s relaxed when he goes up to do things, and making sure that he’s not over-programmed, and is protected from the cacophony of advice,” a family friend said.

“Romney gets buffeted by all this advice because Romney takes everybody seriously,” the family friend said. “He thinks, ‘Well, gee, I’m talking to businessman X or C or Y. They’re really smart. That’s something I need to factor into my thinking.’ Tagg has been aggressive in saying: ‘There’s no more factoring stuff in. Your thinking is yours. Be who you are! And you’ve got to communicate that to people, and don’t be embarrassed by it.’”

Tagg is doing good things for his father and has a good political future. He’s the most effective Romney surrogate besides Ann. He was the head of marketing for a major sports team. That’s good stuff.

In public and private, Ann Romney made no secret of her frustrations. Candidates’ spouses often think the husband or wife is getting a raw deal, and that they are better than the political caricature being drawn. But Ann Romney’s agitation was palpable: She felt the Obama campaign had dishonestly made her husband out to be something he is not, and was eager to see a more forceful response, especially one that played up his humanity. She wanted to humanize her husband; play up his charity; and showcase how in politics, business and life, he has tried to do the right thing, even when it was not popular.

This is a great strategy. People don’t know the Mitt that Ann knows and fell in love with and has five sons with. Ann is probably the best adviser Romney has right now. I love Ann Romney!

First Presidential Debate = BINGO!

Get your checklist out for tonight. The first presidential debate will take place tonight, in Colorado, and as usual, we can play BINGO with buzzwords:

big government

bipartisan

Reagan

Bush

Supreme Court

abortion

debt ceiling

fiscal cliff

bailout

energy independencd

Social Security

Medicare

jobs

unemployment

middle class

(insert foreign country)

(Insert foreign leader)

leading from behind

Wall Street

(insert random US cabinet department)

fiscal cliff

troops

transparency

Obamacare/Affordable Care Act/Romneycare

99% and/or 47%

“you didn’t build that”

bin Laden

Fast and Furious

(insert swing state)

I would be shocked – hell, I might drop dead – if 90% of those don’t show up tonight.

Quick Hits, September 7th

Media using fake names to buy campaign material from Obama/DNC…lamestream indeed.

Unemployment fell to 8.1%, BUT, participation rate in the labor force at the lowest levels in almost thirty years. If the number of workers were equal to that when Obama took office, UE would be 11%!

Mitt Romney: “If last night was the party, today is the hangover.”

Final Day of the Convention….what?

What? Did anyone else see Clint Eastwood’s speech? It was rambling, it was incoherent…dude…c’mon

As for the others:

  • FL Sen. Marco Rubio was fantastic. Such a compelling life story and vision he has for this country, plus he’s a great speaker
  • I felt Mitt Romney’s speech was good, if not a little stilted in delivery. He conveyed the key message: it’s ok to be disappointed that you voted for Barack Obama in 2008, you can make up for it this year. I thought he did an excellent job and did what he needed to do.

Now the Democrats get their turn in Charlotte, NC next week. And then it is on!

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