Category Archives: Pennsylvania

The Buck Stops With Me; Polls; Ohio

So says Hillary Clinton. “I take full responsibility.” She threw herself under the Obama bus. As Newt said last night, she’s lost the 2016 primary and she lost the presidency yesterday. No Hill-Billy 2016 I guess…

Scattershots:

  • That Gallup/USA Today poll from yesterday has Obama +3 (51-48) in favorability and Romney +8 (52-44). 10 point swing since August!
  • PPP/Daily Kos/SEIU has Romney up 50-46 nationally. That’s a Democratic pollster with Romney at 50%.
  • AMA (American Medical Association) endorses Ryan-style Medicare reform. Take that, Joe Biden.
  • Could Pennsylvania be in play? This is ALWAYS the “gotcha” state for GOP every presidential cycle. Quinnipiac has Obama up 4, 50-46; Muhlenberg has Obama up 4, 49-45. If Romney can force Obama to spend money in the Keystone State and if it goes red on November 6, it’ll be a landslide for Romney.
  • New Hampshire poll from last night has it 47/47 in the presidential race. Not surprising.

Updated 2012 Map:

  • Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado move into the Romney camp. 257
  • Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania move into the Obama camp. 243
  • Iowa (6), Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10), and New Hampshire (4) are toss-up.

Why is Ohio so hard to figure out?

  • Exit polls in 2008 showed 39/33/30 DRI…based on actual results (Obama 51.5-46.9), actual party breakdown was 36.5/32.5/30 DRI…D+5, not D+8. Exit polls are the definition of inexact science. Almost every poll to date has a D+4 or higher, which ASSUMES higher Democratic turnout than 2008.
  • Romney is up with independents in every poll. Obama CANNOT win Ohio without winning independents, not if turnout is D+5 or lower.
  • One cannot assume D+5 turnout or higher, because: Romney is and has more money to spend on ads compared to McCain; Romney rallies are infinitely higher than McCain or even Palin rallies in 2008. Enthusiasm + money on the GOP side = win.

Second Presidential Debate tonight. I’ll have more on that later and a recap afterwards.

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Romney’s Trickle Down Effect

Romney’s masterful debate performance could bolster downballot Republicans in swing states across the country.

After the debate, he’s now down two, 45-47 in Pennsylvania, and the GOP challenger to Dem. Sen. Casey now trails 44-46. Windfall.

New LV Journal Poll shows Obama up one in Nevada, 47-46. That should give GOP Sen. Dean Heller some more breathing room against Shelley Berkley.

Improving poll numbers in OH, WI, VA, FL could hypothetically help Mandel, Thompson, Allen, and Mack, respectively. Where it needs to help is places like MA (Brown), CA (Emken), MI (Hoekstra), MN (Billings), and HI (Lingle).

House races should benefit remarkably in these states too. Maybe the GOP is going to add to their majority, rather than the conventional wisdom of losing a seat or two.

Either way, trickle down does work. Take that.

Suffolk Polling: We’re not polling Florida, Virginia, or North Carolina anymore, because Romney is going to win those.

If that’s the case, and you put PA as a tossup, it’s Romney 248-Obama 217 (237 with PA). NV, WI, OH, IA, CO, OH, NH are left.

Expanding the Map

Michigan, Romney cuts the deficit from 37-47 to 45-48.

Pennsylvania, Romney cuts the deficit to two, 45-47. And he’s up by a point among those with an excellent chance to vote.

 

CBS Polls: Completely BullShit

Has anyone looked at these today and just LAUGHED? Hahahahaha.

Ohio: Obama up 10…on a D+9 (26R/35D/35I)

Florida: Obama up 10…on a D+9 (27R/36D/33I)

Pennsylvania: Obama up 12…on a D+11 (28/39/27)

Sorry no. These polls are cooked.

The Convention, Day 1

Will update with videos tomorrow.

  • Future First Lady Ann Romney
  • OK Governor Mary Fallin
  • WI Governor Scott Walker
  • NH Senator Kelly Ayotte
  • Former AL Congressman Artur Davis (D)
  • Former PA Senator Rick Santorum
  • OH Governor John Kasich
  • NJ Governor Chris Christie (keynote)
  • SC Governor Nikki Haley
  • Mayor and Utah Congressional Nominee Mia Love
  • TX Senate Nominee Ted Cruz

**********

Day 2 is shaping up to to be GOOD:

  • PR Governor Luis Fortuño
  • Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
  • NM Governor Susana Martinez
  • Vice Presidential Nominee Paul Ryan

Akin for Control of the Senate

So, maybe the news isn’t all bad for Republican control of the Senate? Let’s go straight to predictions and explanations!

  • Arizona: No change from last week. MODERATE GOP LEAN/HOLD
  • California: No change from last week. I’m excited to see Emken go on CNN Monday morning. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
  • Connecticut: This one has moved into a tossup. A new poll had McMahon up 49-46 and Connecticut looks a lot less friendly to Obama. Could a Republican upset happen here? Until I see another poll tell me otherwise, I say yes. TOSSUP/GOP PICKUP
  • Delaware: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Florida: No change. I still think the way Florida goes in November decides the winner between Nelson and Mack. TOSSUP/GOP PICKUP
  • Hawaii: No change yet. Hirono and Lingle are going to debate 8 times between now and November. Lots of room for change. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Indiana: Still not a lot of polling, so no change. WEAK GOP LEAN/HOLD
  • Maine:No change. Still not a lot of polling and King has still not declared a caucus yet. MODERATE DEM LEAN/DEM PICKUP
  • Maryland: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Massachusetts: A PPP poll had Brown up 5 points yesterday. Looking like Brown’s race to lose.  TOSSUP/HOLD
  • Michigan: Two new polls have  given Hoekstra a lead and another Stabenow in the low single-digits. Romney’s coattails could make this an upset. TOSSUP/HOLD
  • Minnesota: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Mississippi: Incumbent: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
  • Missouri: Call it a tossup now. Actually, as long as Akin is the nominee, McCaskill will win. Weak Dem lean with the chance to jump back to GOP with a new nominee. WEAK DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Montana: Montana is looking RED as RED can be this year. Moving this to GOP lean. WEAK GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
  • Nebraska: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
  • Nevada: No change. MODERATE GOP LEAN/HOLD
  • New Jersey: No change. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • New Mexico: No change yet. TOSSUP/HOLD
  • New York: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • North Dakota: No change. MODERATE GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
  • Ohio: No change. WEAK DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Pennsylvania: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Rhode Island: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Tennessee: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
  • Texas: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
  • Utah: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
  • Vermont: No change. STRONG DEM (SOCIALIST) LEAN/HOLD
  • Virginia: Virginia is looking like a lean blue state in November, so I’m moving this one down to a Dem hold. TOSSUP/HOLD
  • Washington: No change. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • West Virginia: No change.  STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Wisconsin: Thompson looks to be getting stronger and Wisconsin is looking like a Romney state. Moving this up a little. MODERATE GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
  • Wyoming: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD

Last week I had it at 52-47-1 (GOP/Dem/Independent King); this week we have it at: 52-47-1. Haha. Missouri goes blue, Connecticut goes red. Total wash.

Polls…POLLS…POLLS!!

Time for some presidential polling and predictions! Please, don’t get so excited, you might pass out.

Gallup and Rasmussen have shown a consistent tie to Romney +2. WSJ/NBC last night has Obama +4 and AP today has Obama +1.

Update on some state polling done in the last week:

  • Survey USA in Nevada: Obama +2 (47/45)
  • Baydoun/Foster (D) in Michigan: Romney +4 (48/44)
  • PPP (D) in Wisconsin: Romney +1 (48/47)
  • PPP (D) in Virginia: Obama +5 (50/45)
  • CNN in Wisconsin: Obama +4 (49/45)
  • Rasmussen in Wisconsin: Romney +1 (48/47)
  • Rasmussen in Florida: Romney +2 (4/43)
  • Mitchell Research in Michigan: Obama +5 (49/44)
  • Franklin and Marshall in Pennsylvania: Obama +5 (47/42)

So let’s go state by state in our categories:

  • Solid Obama: California, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Washington D.C. (182)
  • Leans Obama: Connecticut*, New Mexico, Oregon**, Pennsylvania*** (39)
  • Tossup: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin (111)
  • Leans R: Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina (47)
  • Solid R: Alabama, Alaska Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming (159)

August 22nd Prediction: Romney 280-Obama 258 (+6 Obama)

Where the tossups went:

  • Nevada, Virginia to Obama (lost Colorado, gained Virginia)
  • Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin to Romney (lost Virginia, gained Colorado and Michigan)

 

*Connecticut moves from Solid to Leans on the basis of PPP polling that Obama has dropped -14 from 2008, from a 22-point win to only an 8-point lead.

**Oregon drops not due to polling, but because of an electoral “twinsies” with Wisconsin, but a teensy bit more liberal (hence, Leans, not Tossup)

***Pennsylvania drops due to polling

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