Category Archives: Politico

I Can Make Up Polls Too

Someone should hire me, my polls are probably a thousand times better than CBS and Quinnipiac. Why is that? Let’s look at their Ohio poll:

  • Obama leads Romney 50-45. The sample: 35/26/34. D+9….nearly double the margin from 2008. Who the heck believes the Democrats are MORE enthused this year and the Republicans will turn out at their lowest point in half a century? Hint: no one.
  • Romney is up 7 with independents….a 15-point shift from 2008…
  • D+9…5 point lead….losing independents by high single-digits…and only a 5 point lead is…wow, not good for Team Obama.

NBC/WSJ national poll has the race tied at 47%. Why is this one bad for Team Obama:

  • 41/53 right/wrong direction
  • 49/48 Obama job approval; 46/52 on economy
  • Only 37% asked where McCain voters
  • 44/38/15 with leaners…independents way way way undersampled
  • Romney +2 in the gender gap…huge.

Romney +2 in Rasmussen; +3 in swing states

Romney +2 in GWU/Politico Battleground

Tied in PPP

Romney +7 in Gallup as of yesterday (another day of the 7-day average will drop off today around noon)

Swing States

Per RCP averages (anomalies in parentheses)

Ohio Obama +2.2 (+1, +3, tie, +1….+5 is the anomaly…) its more like +1 right now

Florida Romney +2.1

Virginia Tie (-5 is the anomaly with Romney +1, 3, 1)

New Hampshire Romney +1 (the anomaly is Romney +3…Tie, +1, -1)

Colorado Romney +0.2 (-3 is the anomaly…-2, +1, +1, +4)

Iowa Obama +2.4 (Obama +8 is the anomaly…+2, tie, +3, -1)

Wisconsin Obama +2.8 (Obama +6 is the anomaly…+2, +3, +1, +2)

Right now I’m comfortable with Romney 261 – Obama 243….Iowa is a tossup (O+1)….Ohio is a tossup (O+1.25)…Wisconsin is a tossup (Obama +2)…the rest are trending Romney (FL, VA, NH, CO)…

Third debate tonight….WEEEEEE

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The Haunting of Politico

Politico is out with an article…“10 Quotes that Haunt President Obama.”

When and how will Mitt Romney use them in the debates?

(1) “Washington is broken. My whole campaign has been premised from the start on the idea that we have to fundamentally change how Washington works.”

“Mr. President, you have done nothing to fundamentally change how Washington works. In fact, you’ve perpetuated the stereotype of secrecy, backroom deals, and misleading the American public.”

(2) “I think that I’m a better speechwriter than my speechwriters. I know more about policies on any particular issue than my policy directors. And I’ll tell you right now that I’m gonna think I’m a better political director than my political director.”

“Mr. President, your policies have been absolutely terrible for this country and you have repeatedly gone with your gut, against the American people…your political director and policy directors should be doing the job you entrust them with.”

(3) “If I don’t have this done in three years, then there’s going to be a one-term proposition.”

“Mr. President, the economy hasn’t rebounded, unemployment is not where you promised…you don’t have this done, and therefore, should be a one-term president.”
(4) “Ronald Reagan changed the trajectory of America in a way that Richard Nixon did not, and a way that Bill Clinton did not.”
“Mr. President, if you do not believe Bill Clinton changed the trajectory of America in a meaningful and positive way, how can you have him speaking on your behalf across the country?”
(5) “Guantanamo will be closed no later than one year from now.”

“Mr. President, this is just another example of your failed promises. Guantanamo is still open and you put the American people in danger by attempting to transfer these terrorists onto domestic soil.”

(6) “I think that health care, over time, is going to become more popular.”

“It wasn’t when you tried to pass it and it still has yet to become popular.”
(7) “I favor legalizing same-sex marriages, and would fight efforts to prohibit such marriages.”
“Mr. President, up until the election year, you were not supportive of legalizing same-sex marriage; in fact, Vice President Dick Cheney was more progressive on the issue than you were…until you needed more votes.”
(8) “It’s here that companies like Solyndra are leading the way toward a brighter and more prosperous future.”

“The greatest example of why the stimulus failed and why we cannot continue the path we are on for the next four years.”
(9) “I fought with you in the Senate for comprehensive immigration reform. And I will make it a top priority in my first year as President.”

“You sold out the Latino community until you once again needed their vote.”
(10) What we have done is kicked this can down the road. We are now at the end of the road and are not in a position to kick it any further. We have to signal seriousness in this by making sure some of the hard decisions are made under my watch, not someone else’s.”

“Mr. Obama, your own political director and former campaign manager says we don’t need to address entitlements this year…you and your administration have continued to kick the can down the road, to put it for someone else’s administration to handle.”
Go get ’em, Mitt!!

Huh, Political Ads Actually Work?

I thought they were like placebos, campaigns assume ads on tv totally work and voters are like, yeah, could care less. I change the channel when political ads come on because they are awful!

Apparently Mitt Romney’s “America Deserves Better” advertisement actually worked.

Romney’s “America Deserves Better” ad — which attacks the president for the pro-Obama super PAC commercial that suggests Romney played a part in a woman’s death from cancer after her husband lost his job and benefits when Bain Capital closed down a steel plant — swung support among independents six points in Romney’s favor, the Vanderbilt/YouGov Ad Rating Project surveyshows.

Never seen the ad, so I can’t comment. But a six-point swing with indies? Hell, I’d be airing it in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Missouri, North Carolina, Michigan.

“This development is interesting because conventional wisdom is that Obama cannot be attacked on the personal front because the public likes him. That may still be true, but these data are the first to cast doubt on that assumption,” Geer said.

Oh god, please wait while your TV vomits more political advertisements. Gird your loins.

Ole Straddlin’ Madeleine Albright: Let’s Blame Bush Forever

At a foreign policy event in Missouri today, former Clinton Secretary of State Madeleine Albright was asked by a gentleman ‘So how long are you people going to blame the previous administration?” Assuming it was a campaign event (which I don’t believe it was), she responded, “FOREVER!

I hope that’s the way the Democrats continue to go. No personality responsibility on their part, only President George W. Bush. This not a Bush recession, this is a Clinton-Bush-Congress recession. Clinton’s housing policies started this, Bush’s spending continue it, and Congress’ lack of restraint and inability to see the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac debacle coming finished it.

President Obama said after four year, it was his economy. Perhaps Ms. Albright should realize Bush isn’t on the ballot. Bush hasn’t been in office for four years and he hasn’t been out blaming other people since leaving office. Democrats have such a problem leaving office and staying out of the news (Jimmy Carter…Bill Clinton…). Let sleeping dogs lie and get on with it.

Albright also warned the crowd that if you liked all the people who served under Bush, they will be back under Mitt Romney. I’m so glad Madeleine Albright knows what personnel Mitt Romney is going to hire. I didn’t know she was privy to such information.

While I respect her for serving as the United States’ first female Secretary of State, she needs to know when her comments are not necessary.

Clash of the Titans

Politico’s Glen Thrush (very respected) is out with a new e-book about the Obama re-election campaign for 2012. It’s going for $2.99 on Amazon, Barnes & Nobles, Apple iBook Store, and Politics & Prose, and is titled Obama’s Last Stand.

The book details a lot of conflict within the 2012 campaign, in stark contrast to the 2008 campaign that was hailed for its organization.

Some highlights from Politico:

  • President Obama told a friend of Senator Marco Rubio, “Tell your boy to watch it. He might get an ass kicked.”
  • Obama will only throw a punch if it doesn’t make him look foolish. In May, Obama sent advisor David Axelrod to Boston to make the case against Governor Romney. Axelrod was met by protestors who drowned out the event; Obama, watching from the West Wing, was less than happy. “We aren’t going to do that kind of thing again, are we?”
  • VP Joe Biden’s announcement of gay marriage approval In May created lot of tension without the White House. Biden felt thrown under the bus by the campaign after the VP screwed up  Team Obama’s planned roll-out of gay marriage support right before the Democratic Convention.
  • Axelrod and Campaign Manager Stephanie Cutter went toe-to-toe and almost went off speaking terms after Axelrod felt Cutter was stealing TV appearances from him. The campaign was becoming less “all-for-Obama” and more “all-for-me.”
  • Obama advisers began (and still are) worrying about Debbie Wasserman-Schultz as DNC head. Highly partisan and ready to hit the TV scene, she bothered the Obama campaign for many of her remarks. A private poll commissioned by the campaign ranked her near the bottom in terms of popularity with the public.
  • Obama hates Romney. Unlike 2008, where he had a lot of respect for Sen. John McCain for being a war hero, he has a general contempt for Romney.

“Time and again Obama has told the people around him that Romney stood for “nothing.” The word he would use to describe Romney was “weak,” too weak to stand up to his own moneymen, too weak to defend his own moderate record as the man who signed into law the first health insurance mandate as Massachusetts governor in 2006, too weak to admit Obama had done a single thing right as president.”

  • The two things President Obama feared most about Romney winning in November: the possibility of SCOTUS retirements making the court 7-2 in favor of the conservatives, and Romney taking credit for a recovering economy.“I’m not going to let him win … so that he can take credit when the economy turns around,” Obama said, according to an aide.
  • The campaign regrets not sending a more season pol to start up a pro-Obama Super PAC  to combat Karl Rove. Obama believed trashing Super PACs and taking the high road would win him the election, before having to backtrack a few months later and reluctantly endorse Priorities USA. “We’re going to lose this [f-ing] thing. Why don’t they get it?” Messina said of Axelrod and Obama’s Super PAC stance.
  • Obama and the DNC considered a historic convention staged in 4 cities in 4 nights. That turned out to be quickly scrapped.
  • Obama remains frustrated by Hill Democrats, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Lader Harry Reid, going so far as to ask them to put his re-election over political priorities. “Look, guys. I plan on winning this race,” he said, according to a person briefed on the interaction. “If I don’t win, then anything we say now doesn’t matter. I plan on winning this race. So let’s figure out how to win this race.”

What this means in the long run, who knows. But it is a far cry from the respectful and highly touted 2008 organization that defeated Senator John McCain.

 

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