Category Archives: Polling

I Can Make Up Polls Too

Someone should hire me, my polls are probably a thousand times better than CBS and Quinnipiac. Why is that? Let’s look at their Ohio poll:

  • Obama leads Romney 50-45. The sample: 35/26/34. D+9….nearly double the margin from 2008. Who the heck believes the Democrats are MORE enthused this year and the Republicans will turn out at their lowest point in half a century? Hint: no one.
  • Romney is up 7 with independents….a 15-point shift from 2008…
  • D+9…5 point lead….losing independents by high single-digits…and only a 5 point lead is…wow, not good for Team Obama.

NBC/WSJ national poll has the race tied at 47%. Why is this one bad for Team Obama:

  • 41/53 right/wrong direction
  • 49/48 Obama job approval; 46/52 on economy
  • Only 37% asked where McCain voters
  • 44/38/15 with leaners…independents way way way undersampled
  • Romney +2 in the gender gap…huge.

Romney +2 in Rasmussen; +3 in swing states

Romney +2 in GWU/Politico Battleground

Tied in PPP

Romney +7 in Gallup as of yesterday (another day of the 7-day average will drop off today around noon)

Swing States

Per RCP averages (anomalies in parentheses)

Ohio Obama +2.2 (+1, +3, tie, +1….+5 is the anomaly…) its more like +1 right now

Florida Romney +2.1

Virginia Tie (-5 is the anomaly with Romney +1, 3, 1)

New Hampshire Romney +1 (the anomaly is Romney +3…Tie, +1, -1)

Colorado Romney +0.2 (-3 is the anomaly…-2, +1, +1, +4)

Iowa Obama +2.4 (Obama +8 is the anomaly…+2, tie, +3, -1)

Wisconsin Obama +2.8 (Obama +6 is the anomaly…+2, +3, +1, +2)

Right now I’m comfortable with Romney 261 – Obama 243….Iowa is a tossup (O+1)….Ohio is a tossup (O+1.25)…Wisconsin is a tossup (Obama +2)…the rest are trending Romney (FL, VA, NH, CO)…

Third debate tonight….WEEEEEE

Yours is Askew

So some brave men and women (and bored?) have taken all the polls of the Obama-Romney race and “re-skewed” the “skewed” polls that oversample Democratic turnout and assume a 2008-or-higher level of Democratics. Let’s look at some of the outlets, what they say, and what “un-skewed” has to say.

POLLING FIRM               SKEWED                 UNSKEWED

Reuters-Ipsos                   O48-43                     R54-44

NBC/WSJ                         O50-45                      R51-44

NYT/CBS                          O49-46                      R51-44

Fox News                          O48-43                     R48-45

ABC/WashPo                   O49-48                     R52-45

CNN/ORC                        O52-46                      R53-45

Here is an example of how they “un-skew” a poll.


(1) take the sample of the poll (33D-24R-36I), re-calibrate it to match something more likely to be the turnout (this is based on Rasmussen Party ID numbers) – (33.06R-31.75D-28.19I)

(2) Now take the survey breakdown found in the poll – 90% D to Obama, 90% R to Romney, and 60% I to Romney. There’s your new poll numbers.

Whether you use Rasmussen Party ID or Gallup Party ID or if we assume the election is going to be roughly D+2 (which is what I think)….I see something more like 50.6Romney-49.4Obama. (90% of each party goes to their nominee, Romney has a 10-point lead on indies at 55%).

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