Tag Archives: conventional wisdom

Romney’s Trickle Down Effect

Romney’s masterful debate performance could bolster downballot Republicans in swing states across the country.

After the debate, he’s now down two, 45-47 in Pennsylvania, and the GOP challenger to Dem. Sen. Casey now trails 44-46. Windfall.

New LV Journal Poll shows Obama up one in Nevada, 47-46. That should give GOP Sen. Dean Heller some more breathing room against Shelley Berkley.

Improving poll numbers in OH, WI, VA, FL could hypothetically help Mandel, Thompson, Allen, and Mack, respectively. Where it needs to help is places like MA (Brown), CA (Emken), MI (Hoekstra), MN (Billings), and HI (Lingle).

House races should benefit remarkably in these states too. Maybe the GOP is going to add to their majority, rather than the conventional wisdom of losing a seat or two.

Either way, trickle down does work. Take that.

Suffolk Polling: We’re not polling Florida, Virginia, or North Carolina anymore, because Romney is going to win those.

If that’s the case, and you put PA as a tossup, it’s Romney 248-Obama 217 (237 with PA). NV, WI, OH, IA, CO, OH, NH are left.

Huh, Political Ads Actually Work?

I thought they were like placebos, campaigns assume ads on tv totally work and voters are like, yeah, could care less. I change the channel when political ads come on because they are awful!

Apparently Mitt Romney’s “America Deserves Better” advertisement actually worked.

Romney’s “America Deserves Better” ad — which attacks the president for the pro-Obama super PAC commercial that suggests Romney played a part in a woman’s death from cancer after her husband lost his job and benefits when Bain Capital closed down a steel plant — swung support among independents six points in Romney’s favor, the Vanderbilt/YouGov Ad Rating Project surveyshows.

Never seen the ad, so I can’t comment. But a six-point swing with indies? Hell, I’d be airing it in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Missouri, North Carolina, Michigan.

“This development is interesting because conventional wisdom is that Obama cannot be attacked on the personal front because the public likes him. That may still be true, but these data are the first to cast doubt on that assumption,” Geer said.

Oh god, please wait while your TV vomits more political advertisements. Gird your loins.

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