So says Hillary Clinton. “I take full responsibility.” She threw herself under the Obama bus. As Newt said last night, she’s lost the 2016 primary and she lost the presidency yesterday. No Hill-Billy 2016 I guess…
- That Gallup/USA Today poll from yesterday has Obama +3 (51-48) in favorability and Romney +8 (52-44). 10 point swing since August!
- PPP/Daily Kos/SEIU has Romney up 50-46 nationally. That’s a Democratic pollster with Romney at 50%.
- AMA (American Medical Association) endorses Ryan-style Medicare reform. Take that, Joe Biden.
- Could Pennsylvania be in play? This is ALWAYS the “gotcha” state for GOP every presidential cycle. Quinnipiac has Obama up 4, 50-46; Muhlenberg has Obama up 4, 49-45. If Romney can force Obama to spend money in the Keystone State and if it goes red on November 6, it’ll be a landslide for Romney.
- New Hampshire poll from last night has it 47/47 in the presidential race. Not surprising.
Updated 2012 Map:
- Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado move into the Romney camp. 257
- Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania move into the Obama camp. 243
- Iowa (6), Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10), and New Hampshire (4) are toss-up.
Why is Ohio so hard to figure out?
- Exit polls in 2008 showed 39/33/30 DRI…based on actual results (Obama 51.5-46.9), actual party breakdown was 36.5/32.5/30 DRI…D+5, not D+8. Exit polls are the definition of inexact science. Almost every poll to date has a D+4 or higher, which ASSUMES higher Democratic turnout than 2008.
- Romney is up with independents in every poll. Obama CANNOT win Ohio without winning independents, not if turnout is D+5 or lower.
- One cannot assume D+5 turnout or higher, because: Romney is and has more money to spend on ads compared to McCain; Romney rallies are infinitely higher than McCain or even Palin rallies in 2008. Enthusiasm + money on the GOP side = win.
Second Presidential Debate tonight. I’ll have more on that later and a recap afterwards.
Great ad by the Romney campaign. Paul Ryan explains the problems on the economy while Joe Biden laughs.
We can’t keep spending and borrowing like this. We can’t just keep spending money we don’t have. Look did they come in and inherit a tough situation? Absolutely. But we’re going in the wrong direction! Look at where we are. The economy is barely limping along.
Don’t raise taxes on small businesses, because they’re our job creators.
Leaders run to problems to fix problems. Mitt Romney is uniquely qualified to fix these problems.
Good ad. Run it everywhere.
Brand spankin’ new CNN/ORC poll says a 1-point bounce for Mitt Romney behind the Republican National Convention:
Before the Convention, 49-47 Obama. Now, 48-48. Geez, I don’t think anything will move the needle much this cycle.
Let’s break it down:
- Topline: 48-48 (+1 for Romney, -1 for Obama since last poll)
- All Registered Voters: Enthusiasm….32% extremely, 25% very, 20% somewhat, 11% not too, 11% not at all
- Registered Democrats: 32% extremely, 24% very, 23% somewhat, 9% not too, 12% not at all
- Registered Republicans: 35% extremely, 27% very, 17% somewhat, 12% not too, 8% not at all
- Obama: 48/45 job approval (-2 since last poll)
- Obama favorability: 51/48 (-1 since last poll)
- Romney favorability: 53/43 (+3 since last poll)
- Joe Biden favorability: 46/46 (no change)
- Paul Ryan favorability: 49/38 (+4 since last poll)
- Economy: 51/45 Romney (+1 Romney)….Foreign Policy: 49/46 Obama (-2 Obama)…Medicare 49/46 Obama (-2 Romney)….Strong/Decisive Leader: 48/43 Romney (-6 Obama)…Optimistic View for Country: 47/43 Romney (-5 Obama)…In touch with middle class: 49/43 Obama (+4 Romney)…In touch with issues facing women: 56/36 Obama (-4 Obama)
- Men: 55/43 Romney…Women 54/42 Obama
- 36-49: 55/42 Romney…50-64: 52/47 Obama…65+: 53/43 Romney
- Under $50k: 57-42 Obama…$50k+: 52/45 Romney…No College: 49/48 Obama…Attended college: 48/48
- Democrats: 93/5 Obama…Republicans 92/7 Romney…Independents 52/42 Romney
- Northeast: 58/38 Obama…Midwest: 50/46 Obama…West: 51/46 Romney…South: 55/44 Romney.