Specifically, three Senate races to touch on:
- Massachusetts: polls had Scott Brown the favorite for re-election, up anywhere from a point to high single digits; all of a sudden, Granny Warren is up anywhere from low to mid single digits. Back to tossup status?
- Connecticut: polls had Linda McMahon edging out Chris Murphy by about three points; now, Murphy is up, albeit by small margins. Outliers or trends?
- Maine: King was the prohibitive favorite as the Independent candidate; two new polls show King 44, Summers 28, Dill 15 and also King 43, Summers 35, Dill 14. Two polls showing same thing: Summers is gaining on King as Dill gains traction. Potential new pickup?
And for fun: 270towin.com has their 2012 House Map up. I can spend hours on this.
The House now is 242R-193D…I think the GOP gains due to redistricting…256R-179D
So, maybe the news isn’t all bad for Republican control of the Senate? Let’s go straight to predictions and explanations!
- Arizona: No change from last week. MODERATE GOP LEAN/HOLD
- California: No change from last week. I’m excited to see Emken go on CNN Monday morning. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
- Connecticut: This one has moved into a tossup. A new poll had McMahon up 49-46 and Connecticut looks a lot less friendly to Obama. Could a Republican upset happen here? Until I see another poll tell me otherwise, I say yes. TOSSUP/GOP PICKUP
- Delaware: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Florida: No change. I still think the way Florida goes in November decides the winner between Nelson and Mack. TOSSUP/GOP PICKUP
- Hawaii: No change yet. Hirono and Lingle are going to debate 8 times between now and November. Lots of room for change. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Indiana: Still not a lot of polling, so no change. WEAK GOP LEAN/HOLD
- Maine:No change. Still not a lot of polling and King has still not declared a caucus yet. MODERATE DEM LEAN/DEM PICKUP
- Maryland: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Massachusetts: A PPP poll had Brown up 5 points yesterday. Looking like Brown’s race to lose. TOSSUP/HOLD
- Michigan: Two new polls have given Hoekstra a lead and another Stabenow in the low single-digits. Romney’s coattails could make this an upset. TOSSUP/HOLD
- Minnesota: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Mississippi: Incumbent: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
- Missouri: Call it a tossup now. Actually, as long as Akin is the nominee, McCaskill will win. Weak Dem lean with the chance to jump back to GOP with a new nominee. WEAK DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Montana: Montana is looking RED as RED can be this year. Moving this to GOP lean. WEAK GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
- Nebraska: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
- Nevada: No change. MODERATE GOP LEAN/HOLD
- New Jersey: No change. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
- New Mexico: No change yet. TOSSUP/HOLD
- New York: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
- North Dakota: No change. MODERATE GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
- Ohio: No change. WEAK DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Pennsylvania: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Rhode Island: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Tennessee: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
- Texas: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
- Utah: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
- Vermont: No change. STRONG DEM (SOCIALIST) LEAN/HOLD
- Virginia: Virginia is looking like a lean blue state in November, so I’m moving this one down to a Dem hold. TOSSUP/HOLD
- Washington: No change. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
- West Virginia: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Wisconsin: Thompson looks to be getting stronger and Wisconsin is looking like a Romney state. Moving this up a little. MODERATE GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
- Wyoming: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
Last week I had it at 52-47-1 (GOP/Dem/Independent King); this week we have it at: 52-47-1. Haha. Missouri goes blue, Connecticut goes red. Total wash.
So a new Rasmussen poll has Linda McMahon LEADING (!!!!!!!!!) Rep. Chris Murphy in the Connecticut Senate race. Remember, in 2010, A WAVE YEAR FOR THE GOP, McMahon, despite spending $50 million (dear Lord), couldn’t buy her way into the Senate.
The new poll, out today, has McMahon ahead of Murphy 49-46. That tells me three things: (1) Public opinion is generally solidified, with only 5% undecided/having no opinion; (2) McMahon is so, so close to 50%, a good sign for her and the GOP; and (3), could Murphy serving in the House be a detriment?
Hot Air breaks down the partisan leanings: 46/32/21 D/R/I compared to 2008 (43/27/31) and 2010 (39/28/33). A partisan breakdown between 2008 and 2010 is what is general expected this year. Women are 56/44 of the sample, which is +3 from 2008 and +7 from 2010. Interesting.
McMahon is leading among independents 55/31 and leads among 40-55 and 55+ (by 18) and only trailed by 9 (40/49) in the U-40 demo. I’m not going to say I’m surprised by the 55/31 spread among independents, PPP had Romney with a +7 edge with independents at the end of July, so this is possible.
Why is Murphy trailing? Probably because he is currently serving in the House. He has votes to defend. 44% of voters think the President’s health care law with affect Medicare, versus 43% who think Ryan’s plan will. 42% rate the economy good or fair, with 57% rating it poor.
If McMahon can hold on and win this seat, it would make a potential loss of Missouri that much easier to bear. And it gives Romney potential at the top of the ticket in a blue state in the NE.