Tag Archives: mitt romney

The Electoral Tie Breaker

Some new polls out to make this race interesting:

  • VA, Romney up 51-44 (ARG)
  • FL, Romney up 51-47 (Rasmussen)
  • NH, Romney up 50-46 (ARG)
  • Maine, an internal has Romney down 44-48 and leading in Maine’s 2nd CD…the potential tie breaker

According to a new poll shared exclusively with POLITICO, Mitt Romney is leading President Obama in a congressional district in Maine — raising the possibility of the GOP nominee winning an electoral vote in a deep blue state.

The live-call poll, conducted by Glen Bolger of NMB Research and provided to POLITICO by American Crossroads communications director Jonathan Collegio, shows Obama winning statewide 48 percent to 44 percent.

That result already puts Romney in a surprisingly competitive position in a nominally blue state.

But in Maine’s second congressional district, Romney actually tops Obama 49 percent to 44 percent.

In most states, that such a result wouldn’t mean much. But Maine is one of two states in the country that splits its electoral college vote by congressional district.

The second congressional district, encompassing the northern and western part of the state, is largely rural and overwhelmingly white — groups that Obama has never done well among.

During redistricting, the Republican legislature also shifted two towns — Waterville and Winslow — that went heavily for Obama in 2008 from the second congressional district into the first — giving the GOP ticket a boost by removing two population centers from the district.

The idea of a state splitting its electoral vote is not farfetched either.

Obama famously won a single electoral vote in Nebraska’s second congressional district — encompassing Omaha and its suburbs.

The poll points to the surprising possibility of a similar situation in Maine — a state that has not voted for a Republican at the presidential level since 1988.

The poll surveyed 500 statewide likely voters, polled October 7-8 — giving the poll a margin of error of about plus or minus 4 percent.

In the RCP poll of polls:

  • Ohio, O+1.3
  • Florida, R+2
  • Virginia, O+0.6
  • North Carolina, R+3.3
  • Iowa, O+3.2
  • Colorado, R+0.6
  • Wisconsin, O+2.3
  • Missouri, R+5.2
  • New Hampshire, O+0.7
  • Nevada, O+1.6

The Virginia averages do not have the new ARG poll in there; NH, NV, WI, OH are all trending towards tied…Very interesting to watch.

My newest predictions: Romney 274-Obama 264. Romney takes ME-2, NH, VA, FL, NC, MO, IA, WI, and CO. He is the first Republican to win the presidency without Ohio.

Family Ties

Politico is out with an article about how the Romney family is shaking up the campaign. Since their family is the size of a campaign staff, I guess that works well.

What followed was a family intervention. The candidate’s family prevailed on Mitt Romney, and the campaign operation, to shake things up dramatically, according to campaign insiders. The family pushed for a new message, putting an emphasis on a softer and more moderate image for the GOP nominee — a “let Mitt be Mitt” approach they believed more accurately reflected the looser, generous and more approachable man they knew.

Smart idea. Mitt isn’t an idiot and he’s not an empty suit. Let him be himself, it’s why he is so successful.

One result was Monday’s foreign policy speech at Virginia Military Institute. Aides are now considering following it up with a speech on jobs and the economy, and then one on debt and spending. Another one on energy has also been discussed. The economic speech is designed as a high-profile pushback to the Obama campaign’s attacks. One adviser, invoking the famous Bob Dole quote from 1988, said the gist will be: “Stop lying about my record.”’

I think this is a fantastic idea. Go right at Obama between the debates.

But the biggest change in the ecology, according to the insiders, is the more assertive role of Tagg Romney, who has been “making sure that his father’s environment is such that he’s relaxed when he goes up to do things, and making sure that he’s not over-programmed, and is protected from the cacophony of advice,” a family friend said.

“Romney gets buffeted by all this advice because Romney takes everybody seriously,” the family friend said. “He thinks, ‘Well, gee, I’m talking to businessman X or C or Y. They’re really smart. That’s something I need to factor into my thinking.’ Tagg has been aggressive in saying: ‘There’s no more factoring stuff in. Your thinking is yours. Be who you are! And you’ve got to communicate that to people, and don’t be embarrassed by it.’”

Tagg is doing good things for his father and has a good political future. He’s the most effective Romney surrogate besides Ann. He was the head of marketing for a major sports team. That’s good stuff.

In public and private, Ann Romney made no secret of her frustrations. Candidates’ spouses often think the husband or wife is getting a raw deal, and that they are better than the political caricature being drawn. But Ann Romney’s agitation was palpable: She felt the Obama campaign had dishonestly made her husband out to be something he is not, and was eager to see a more forceful response, especially one that played up his humanity. She wanted to humanize her husband; play up his charity; and showcase how in politics, business and life, he has tried to do the right thing, even when it was not popular.

This is a great strategy. People don’t know the Mitt that Ann knows and fell in love with and has five sons with. Ann is probably the best adviser Romney has right now. I love Ann Romney!

Quick Hits, September 7th

Media using fake names to buy campaign material from Obama/DNC…lamestream indeed.

Unemployment fell to 8.1%, BUT, participation rate in the labor force at the lowest levels in almost thirty years. If the number of workers were equal to that when Obama took office, UE would be 11%!

Mitt Romney: “If last night was the party, today is the hangover.”

CNN Poll: No Bounce

Brand spankin’ new CNN/ORC poll says a 1-point bounce for Mitt Romney behind the Republican National Convention:

Before the Convention, 49-47 Obama. Now, 48-48. Geez, I don’t think anything will move the needle much this cycle.

Let’s break it down:

  • Topline: 48-48 (+1 for Romney, -1 for Obama since last poll)
  • All Registered Voters: Enthusiasm….32% extremely, 25% very, 20% somewhat, 11% not too, 11% not at all
  • Registered Democrats: 32% extremely, 24% very, 23% somewhat, 9% not too, 12% not at all
  • Registered Republicans: 35% extremely, 27% very, 17% somewhat, 12% not too, 8% not at all
  • Obama: 48/45 job approval (-2 since last poll)
  • Obama favorability: 51/48 (-1 since last poll)
  • Romney favorability: 53/43 (+3 since last poll)
  • Joe Biden favorability: 46/46 (no change)
  • Paul Ryan favorability: 49/38 (+4 since last poll)
  • Economy: 51/45 Romney (+1 Romney)….Foreign Policy: 49/46 Obama (-2 Obama)…Medicare 49/46 Obama (-2 Romney)….Strong/Decisive Leader: 48/43 Romney (-6 Obama)Optimistic View for Country: 47/43 Romney (-5 Obama)…In touch with middle class: 49/43 Obama (+4 Romney)…In touch with issues facing women: 56/36 Obama (-4 Obama)
  • Men: 55/43 Romney…Women 54/42 Obama
  • 36-49: 55/42 Romney…50-64: 52/47 Obama…65+: 53/43 Romney
  • Under $50k: 57-42 Obama…$50k+: 52/45 Romney…No College: 49/48 Obama…Attended college: 48/48
  • Democrats: 93/5 Obama…Republicans 92/7 Romney…Independents 52/42 Romney
  • Northeast: 58/38 Obama…Midwest: 50/46 Obama…West: 51/46 Romney…South: 55/44 Romney.

Condi Rice, Bridesmaid

Hello California,  I am here to fix you.

RadarOnline.com is reporting Condoleezza Rice, former NSA Adviser and Bush Secretary of State, was Mitt Romney’s second choice to be Vice President, being shunned over Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan. And why was she not picked?

Because Condoleezza Rice is pro-choice and pro-civil unions. Once again, litmus test over competency. Ms. Rice is BEYOND competent and capable to be Vice President and would be an excellent candidate. But as usual, her more moderate positions (which are more in-line with American values) are not extreme enough for the social conservative wing of the GOP.

“Mitt thought she would add much needed foreign policy experience to the ticket, thinks she is incredibly bright and he knew she would help with the all important female vote and African American support.

However, sources say Ms. Rice is aiming to run for Governor of California in 2014 against Jerry Brown, and in a more liberal state, her moderate social views would endear her to the independent voters and “conservative” Democrats in California.

“She will continue to stump for him but she is very excited about the prospect of running for elected office for the first time in her life. California still has very high unemployment and companies are leaving the Golden State because of very high taxes and regulations. Condi’s position on social issues makes her a very viable candidate.”

Quick Takes on Convention, Day 2

McCain was great, we dearly respect him.

Can’t wait to see John Thune run for office in 2016 or 2020

Former SOS Condi Rice…wow. Biggest applause in possibly both nights so far. Dr. Rice has a future in politics, even though she won’t admit it. Coming out party, indeed. I got goosebumps from her speech.

  • “We stand for free peoples and free markets. We will stand and support them.”
  • “Our armed forces are the sure shield and foundation of liberty.”
  • “We can not be reluctant to lead, and you can not lead from behind.”
  • “The desire to live in freedom is indeed universal.”
  • “Peace really does come through strength.”
  • “We are abandoning the practice of free trade and it will come back to haunt us.”
  • “Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan will rebuild the foundation of our strength – the economy.”
  • “When a nation loses control of its finances, it eventually loses control of its destiny. This is not the America that has inspired people to follow our lead.”
  • “The essence of America…is not nationality or ethnicity or religion. It is an idea. And what an idea it is! That you can come from humble circumstances and you can do great things. It does not matter where you came from, but where you are going.”
  • “We have never been jealous of each other, and never been envious of each others successes.”
  • “Greatness is built on mobilizing human potential and ambition. We have always done that better than any country in the world. People come here because they believe our creed of opportunity.”
  • “We must continue to welcome the world’s most ambitious people to be a part of us.”
  • “You may not be able to control your circumstances but you can control your response to your circumstances.”
  • “Self-esteem comes from achievement, not from lax standards and false praise.”
  • “Think of when America made the impossible seem inevitable.”

NM Governor Susana Martinez, “todos es posible!” Funny, personable, and did amazing for the biggest stage of her life so far.

  • “Success is not built on resentment and fear.”
  • “My boss fired me. So I took him on. And beat him by a landslide.”
  • “I’ll be damned…we’re Republicans!”
  • “We don’t always see eye to eye, but we came together in a bipartisan manner and turned that deficit into a surplus. And we did it without raising taxes.”
  • “If he can take credit for government building small businesses, he can take responsibility for government adding $5 trillion to the federal debt. Because he did build that.”
  • “We each pave a path, and for me, it’s about paving a path for those little girls to follow. They need to know: no more barriers.”
  • “It’s success and success is the American dream. And that success is not something to be ashamed of or demonize.”

VP Nominee Paul Ryan. CHILLS ALREADY. The smartest man in the GOP. “Hello Wisconsin!” A lot more subdued than “pitbull and a hockey mom.”

  • “I accept the calling of my generation to give our children the America that was given to us, with opportunities for the young and security for the old.”
  • “After four year of a run-around, America needs a turnaround.”
  • “They’ve run out of ideas. Their moment came and went. Fear and division is all they’ve got left.”
  • “With all their attack ads, the President is just throwing away money. And he’s pretty experienced at that.”
  • “Let’s get this done and that is exactly what we are going to do.”
  • “When he talked about change, many people liked the sound of that…”
  • “Without a change in leadership, why would the next four years be any different from the last four years?”
  • “That money wasn’t just spent and wasted. It was BORROWED, spent, and wasted.”
  • “The greatest threat to Medicare is Obamacare and we’re gonna stop it.”
  • “Our opponents can consider them on notice: in this election, on this issue, the usual posturing on the Left isn’t going to work. Mitt Romney and I know the difference between raiding and protecting. Our nation needs this debate. We want this debate. We will win this debate.”
  • “What is missing is leadership in the White House!”
  • “The man assumed office four years ago. Isn’t it time he assumes responsibility?”
  • “One President, one term, five trillion new debt.”
  • “They have no answer to this simple reality: We need to stop spending money we don’t have.”
  • “We will put government back on the side of the people who built jobs and the people who need jobs.”
  • “Yes, you did build that!”
  • “We will act in the conviction that the United States is still the greatest force for peace that this world has ever known!”
  • “President Obama is the kind of politician who puts promises on the record and then pulls the record.”
  • “College graduates should not have to live out their 20s in their childhood bedrooms, staring up at fading Obama posters!”
  • “Obama offers a country where everything free…BUT US!”
  • “By the way, being successful in business, that’s a good thing!”
  • “Mitt and I also go to different churches.  But in any church, the best kind of preaching is done by example.”
  • “Our rights come from nature and God and not government!”
  • “We will not seek to replace our founding principles, we will seek to reapply them!”

Day 2 was not quite was it was in 08 with Sarah Palin’s VP speech (the gold standard of VP speeches in my opinion), but damn if Condoleezza Rice, after two days, isn’t in the lead with best speech of the convention.

**Tweet of the Night: ShirleyQLiquors: well.. ok.. but… at the debate, Joe Bidern can still get up and holler “THEY GONE PUT YALL BACK IN CHAINS”

 

Speeches:

Condi Rice

Susana Martinez

Rand Paul

John Thune

John McCain

Luis Fortuño

PS, Holy Pam Bondi boobs

Akin for Control of the Senate

So, maybe the news isn’t all bad for Republican control of the Senate? Let’s go straight to predictions and explanations!

  • Arizona: No change from last week. MODERATE GOP LEAN/HOLD
  • California: No change from last week. I’m excited to see Emken go on CNN Monday morning. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
  • Connecticut: This one has moved into a tossup. A new poll had McMahon up 49-46 and Connecticut looks a lot less friendly to Obama. Could a Republican upset happen here? Until I see another poll tell me otherwise, I say yes. TOSSUP/GOP PICKUP
  • Delaware: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Florida: No change. I still think the way Florida goes in November decides the winner between Nelson and Mack. TOSSUP/GOP PICKUP
  • Hawaii: No change yet. Hirono and Lingle are going to debate 8 times between now and November. Lots of room for change. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Indiana: Still not a lot of polling, so no change. WEAK GOP LEAN/HOLD
  • Maine:No change. Still not a lot of polling and King has still not declared a caucus yet. MODERATE DEM LEAN/DEM PICKUP
  • Maryland: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Massachusetts: A PPP poll had Brown up 5 points yesterday. Looking like Brown’s race to lose.  TOSSUP/HOLD
  • Michigan: Two new polls have  given Hoekstra a lead and another Stabenow in the low single-digits. Romney’s coattails could make this an upset. TOSSUP/HOLD
  • Minnesota: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Mississippi: Incumbent: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
  • Missouri: Call it a tossup now. Actually, as long as Akin is the nominee, McCaskill will win. Weak Dem lean with the chance to jump back to GOP with a new nominee. WEAK DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Montana: Montana is looking RED as RED can be this year. Moving this to GOP lean. WEAK GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
  • Nebraska: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
  • Nevada: No change. MODERATE GOP LEAN/HOLD
  • New Jersey: No change. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • New Mexico: No change yet. TOSSUP/HOLD
  • New York: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • North Dakota: No change. MODERATE GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
  • Ohio: No change. WEAK DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Pennsylvania: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Rhode Island: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Tennessee: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
  • Texas: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
  • Utah: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
  • Vermont: No change. STRONG DEM (SOCIALIST) LEAN/HOLD
  • Virginia: Virginia is looking like a lean blue state in November, so I’m moving this one down to a Dem hold. TOSSUP/HOLD
  • Washington: No change. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • West Virginia: No change.  STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
  • Wisconsin: Thompson looks to be getting stronger and Wisconsin is looking like a Romney state. Moving this up a little. MODERATE GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
  • Wyoming: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD

Last week I had it at 52-47-1 (GOP/Dem/Independent King); this week we have it at: 52-47-1. Haha. Missouri goes blue, Connecticut goes red. Total wash.

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