Tag Archives: obama

2012 Election Predictions

U.S. President

  • Romney 51% – Obama 47%
  • Romney 297, Obama 241
  • Romney: Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire
  • Obama: Nevada, Ohio, Michigan

U.S. Senate

  • GOP 51 – Dem 48(49)
  • GOP: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Virginia, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota
  • Dem: New Mexico, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio … Maine (Indie)

U.S. House

  • GOP 240 – Dem 195

Harris County

  • President: Obama 52% – Romney 47%
  • Sheriff: Garcia (D) 55% – Guthrie (R) 45%
  • District Attorney: Oliver (D) 51% – Anderson (R) 49%
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The 170 Million Dollar Man

Romney raises $170 million…about $10 million less than Obama…not too shabby.

$191 million cash on hand. All this came in the 47%/post-DNC slide month. Well done Mitt.

AAAAAAAAAND

Romney 51-Obama 46 in Gallup/USA Today Swing State Polls.

Quite the October surprise…the debate, the bumps, the money.

On Good Polls, Bad Polls, and Candy Crowley

Let’s start at the very beginning.

  • WaPo/ABC: Obama 49, Romney 46 among LV. The caveat: D+9. Two cycles from D+8 and one cycle from tied turnout, suddenly, Democrats are more energized than 2008? As if. Obama up 3 with a D+9 translates to more like Romney +2 with a D+6 or even Romney +4 with a D+4 (more likely).

And followed it up with:

  • ARG on Iowa: tie race at 48-48. Last month, Obama was up 7. D+1 (same as 2008).
  • ARG in Virginia has Romney +1. Last month, Obama +2. D+5 (D+6 in 2008).
  • ARG National has Romney +1 on a D+4. Leads indys by 14. Obama cannot and will not win losing independents by double digits.
  • Gravis has Colorado Obama +2.
  • PPP has North Carolina Romney +2. Sample way more Democratic than it will be this year.
  • PPP has Romney +1 in Florida.
  • PPP has Obama +5 in Ohio.

And on Candy Crowley:

  • Both debates are not happy with what Crowley believes her role is in the debates. She is a facilitator, as this debate is more a “town hall” style debate. She believes she can steer the conversation instead of moderating it. No. This is the same woman who called the Romney-Ryan ticket a “death wish.” Impartial moderator my Aunt Fanny.

 

Is the Tide Actually Turning?

It sure seems so. Poll after poll show Romney leading nationally, gaining in the swing states. Obama is treading water, the Dems seem to be in disarray, and there’s a rumored campaign shake up.

Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP has Romney up 2 nationally, 49-47. This is in contrast to Obama up 49-45 last time.

Rasmussen, 48-48. Romney up in the swing state poll.

Siena has Pennsylvania a 3 point race with a lot of undecideds (which is odd less than a month out)…

Gallup has Obama up 5 in the tracker, but they are switching to likely voters today. Expect a dead heat or small Romney lead. UPDATE: 49-46 Obama among RV; 49-47 Romney among LV.

UPDATE: More polls!

  • Colorado: 50-46 Romney (ARG)
  • North Carolina: 50-41 Romney (Gravis)
  • Ohio: Romney 48-47 Romney (ARG); 45-44 Obama (Survey USA)
  • Nevada: 47-47 (Ras)….that’s a biggie, if Romney can take Nevada, he has that many more options to 270

I’m started to become less worried about the Presidency and more worried about the Senate…

  • Ras has McMahon trailing 46-51, but tied with leaners.
  • Brown and Warren race is still too close to see anything, poll yesterday had Warren +5 and today another had Brown +3.
  • North Dakota still looks to be a dead heat…Berg is underperforming Romney by a lot.
  • Virginia is going to go down the last vote, that’s a given.

President Debate Smackdown

Housewife style.

“Mr. President, you’re entitled to your own house and your own airplane, but not your own facts.”

“I’ve been in business for 25 years. I have no idea what you’re talking about. Maybe I need to get a new accountant, but the idea you get a break for shipping jobs overseas, is simply not the case.”

“Look, I got five boys. I’m used to people saying something that’s not always true, but just keep on repeating it and ultimately hoping I will believe it.”

***The flash polls have Romney winning anywhere from 46% – 67% on CNN. Millions of dollars raised overnight. Better leader of Obama by nearly 20 points. The race has turned.***

So about that foreign policy strength, huh?

Let’s keep hammering that Obama killed Osama. OBAMA KILLED OSAMA. OBAMA KILLED OSAMA. FOREIGN POLICY EXPERT.

Then why does he keep screwing up?

Having to come and say, hey, the Bengazhi attack was a terrorist act, on 9/11, and was pre-planned. Hell, there weren’t even any protests outside the building like we tried to lie about.

Hey, UN meeting this week? Sorry, President Obama ain’t got no time for bilateral meetings with heads of state….just the women on the View! Thank Goodness.

Israel’s concern Iran is going to nuke it to oblivious? “Noise” Obama is going to ignore, he says.

Senate Minority wants a report on what exactly happened in Libya? Psh, read about it in the papers, because Obama and the State Department don’t need to tell you elected officials anything.

Garbage in, garbage out

Garbage polls by NBC/WSJ as per usual.

Wisconsin: Obama 50 – Romney 45

D/R/I: 33/28/38 (D+5)

Iowa: Obama 50 – Romney 42

D/R/I: 36/31/33 (D+5)

Colorado: Obama 50 – Romney 45

D/R/I: 34/32/32 (D+2)

 

As usual, the polling assumes a Democratic turnout nearly equal to 2008, the highwater for the Dems. D+6 was the turnout in 2008…I am about 99.9% sure November is going to be closer to D+2 or even.

Garbage in, garbage out. Polls create narratives. The media narrative: OBAMA IS WINNING. Internal polling says otherwise, or else Obama wouldn’t be in Iowa/Wisconsin considering the margin he won by in 2008.

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