Tag Archives: poll numbers

Romney’s Trickle Down Effect

Romney’s masterful debate performance could bolster downballot Republicans in swing states across the country.

After the debate, he’s now down two, 45-47 in Pennsylvania, and the GOP challenger to Dem. Sen. Casey now trails 44-46. Windfall.

New LV Journal Poll shows Obama up one in Nevada, 47-46. That should give GOP Sen. Dean Heller some more breathing room against Shelley Berkley.

Improving poll numbers in OH, WI, VA, FL could hypothetically help Mandel, Thompson, Allen, and Mack, respectively. Where it needs to help is places like MA (Brown), CA (Emken), MI (Hoekstra), MN (Billings), and HI (Lingle).

House races should benefit remarkably in these states too. Maybe the GOP is going to add to their majority, rather than the conventional wisdom of losing a seat or two.

Either way, trickle down does work. Take that.

Suffolk Polling: We’re not polling Florida, Virginia, or North Carolina anymore, because Romney is going to win those.

If that’s the case, and you put PA as a tossup, it’s Romney 248-Obama 217 (237 with PA). NV, WI, OH, IA, CO, OH, NH are left.

Yours is Askew

So some brave men and women (and bored?) have taken all the polls of the Obama-Romney race and “re-skewed” the “skewed” polls that oversample Democratic turnout and assume a 2008-or-higher level of Democratics. Let’s look at some of the outlets, what they say, and what “un-skewed” has to say.

POLLING FIRM               SKEWED                 UNSKEWED

Reuters-Ipsos                   O48-43                     R54-44

NBC/WSJ                         O50-45                      R51-44

NYT/CBS                          O49-46                      R51-44

Fox News                          O48-43                     R48-45

ABC/WashPo                   O49-48                     R52-45

CNN/ORC                        O52-46                      R53-45

Here is an example of how they “un-skew” a poll.

Basically:

(1) take the sample of the poll (33D-24R-36I), re-calibrate it to match something more likely to be the turnout (this is based on Rasmussen Party ID numbers) – (33.06R-31.75D-28.19I)

(2) Now take the survey breakdown found in the poll – 90% D to Obama, 90% R to Romney, and 60% I to Romney. There’s your new poll numbers.

Whether you use Rasmussen Party ID or Gallup Party ID or if we assume the election is going to be roughly D+2 (which is what I think)….I see something more like 50.6Romney-49.4Obama. (90% of each party goes to their nominee, Romney has a 10-point lead on indies at 55%).

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