CBS Polls: Completely BullShit

Has anyone looked at these today and just LAUGHED? Hahahahaha.

Ohio: Obama up 10…on a D+9 (26R/35D/35I)

Florida: Obama up 10…on a D+9 (27R/36D/33I)

Pennsylvania: Obama up 12…on a D+11 (28/39/27)

Sorry no. These polls are cooked.

THIS ELECTION IS SO OVER!

Because the mainstream media says so.

I mean, Romney is up 47-45 in Rasmussen Presidential and up 47-46 in the Rasmussen Swing State Tracking. OVER.

And now Gallup is showing Obama only up by 1, 47-46. Bounce? Gone. Election? OVER

Gravis has Romney up 1 in FL….Rasmussen has Romney up 3 in Colorado…Baydoun/Foster has Romney -2 in Michigan…Rasmussen has Romney -1 in Virgina…O.V.E.R.

So Dems…no need to go vote…this election is OVAH.

Morning Dump, September 4, 2012

Holy cow, it is September. Now I have to get used to writing that instead of August (as I originally typed in the heading)

• “Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago? …No…I mean yes…I mean, sure, I mean…purple?”
• An I in school is worse than a letter grade…it means you didn’t do any work!

Weekend Polls (with my interest tidbits)

• All tied up in NC per PPP, 48-48. Interesting notes: +7 in favorability for Romney since last poll; biggest winners from the GOP Convention were Condi Rice (62/25) and Ann Romney (54/26)…Rubio +17, Martinez +16, Christie +8, Ryan +4
• No bounce in Florida, per PPP, 48-47 Obama. Interesting notes: +5 in favorability for Romney since last poll; biggest winners from GOP Convention were Condi Rice (66/22) and Ann Romney (56/22)…Rubio +18, Martinez +19, Christie +9, Ryan +7 (lol Mediscare)
• Colorado narrowing, per PPP, 49-46 Obama. Interesting notes: +3 in favorability for Romney since last poll; biggest winners from GOP Convention were Condi Rice (65/22) and Ann Romney (50/31)…Rubio +18, Martinez +20, Christie +9, Ryan +5
• Michigan narrowing, per PPP, 51-44 Obama. Interesting notes: Romney is -4 in favorability in his “home state;” biggest winners from the GOP convention: Condi Rice (64/21) and Ann Romney (51/27)…Rubio +13, Martinez +18, Christie +6, Ryan +5

What I gather: the convention boosted Romney’s favorability in key states; Ryan is seen positively at this point; Ann Romney continues to be a boost for the campaign; and holy cow Condi Rice is LOVED

The Democratic National Convention starts tonight, with San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro as the keynote. I’ll be tuning it for that.

The Convention, Day 1

Will update with videos tomorrow.

• Future First Lady Ann Romney

• OK Governor Mary Fallin

• WI Governor Scott Walker

• NH Senator Kelly Ayotte

• Former AL Congressman Artur Davis (D)

• Former PA Senator Rick Santorum

• OH Governor John Kasich

• NJ Governor Chris Christie (keynote)

• SC Governor Nikki Haley

• Mayor and Utah Congressional Nominee Mia Love

• TX Senate Nominee Ted Cruz

**********

Day 2 is shaping up to to be GOOD:

• PR Governor Luis Fortuño
• Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
• NM Governor Susana Martinez
• Vice Presidential Nominee Paul Ryan

Polls…POLLS…POLLS!!

Time for some presidential polling and predictions! Please, don’t get so excited, you might pass out.

Gallup and Rasmussen have shown a consistent tie to Romney +2. WSJ/NBC last night has Obama +4 and AP today has Obama +1.

Update on some state polling done in the last week:

• Survey USA in Nevada: Obama +2 (47/45)
• Baydoun/Foster (D) in Michigan: Romney +4 (48/44)
• PPP (D) in Wisconsin: Romney +1 (48/47)
• PPP (D) in Virginia: Obama +5 (50/45)
• CNN in Wisconsin: Obama +4 (49/45)
• Rasmussen in Wisconsin: Romney +1 (48/47)
• Rasmussen in Florida: Romney +2 (4/43)
• Mitchell Research in Michigan: Obama +5 (49/44)
• Franklin and Marshall in Pennsylvania: Obama +5 (47/42)

So let’s go state by state in our categories:

• Solid Obama: California, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Washington D.C. (182)
• Leans Obama: Connecticut*, New Mexico, Oregon**, Pennsylvania*** (39)
• Tossup: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin (111)
• Leans R: Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina (47)
• Solid R: Alabama, Alaska Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming (159)

August 22nd Prediction: Romney 280-Obama 258 (+6 Obama)

Where the tossups went:

• Nevada, Virginia to Obama (lost Colorado, gained Virginia)
• Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin to Romney (lost Virginia, gained Colorado and Michigan)

 

*Connecticut moves from Solid to Leans on the basis of PPP polling that Obama has dropped -14 from 2008, from a 22-point win to only an 8-point lead.

**Oregon drops not due to polling, but because of an electoral “twinsies” with Wisconsin, but a teensy bit more liberal (hence, Leans, not Tossup)

***Pennsylvania drops due to polling

Welcome to the Idiocracy

Why do we not require anyone running for office to pass a mental fitness test? Seriously, it just puzzles me how these people want to be the ones to devise solutions to our country’s greatest problems.

Let’s take a look at some of these people we keep nominating to run for office:

• Dianne Feinstein (CA) let her “campaign treasurer” steal $4.5 million dollars from her campaign treasury right out from under her nose. Can’t handle my money, let me handle yours…
• Connie Mack IV (FL) has a feud going with the state’s most prominent journalist. Can’t handle a state journalist, but I’ll deal with NYT, WaPo, WSJ, etc just fine!
• Elizabeth Warren (MA) lied about her family’s ethnic background and using it to obtain diversity employment. No big deal, I didn’t mean it…I’ll never lie to you again!
• Richard Murdock (IN) told reporters his idea of compromise in Washington was the Democrats agreeing with Republicans, not vice versa. Only I know the answers, you must only listen to me!
• Pete Hoekstra (MI) with his highly-racist ad about the Chinese. I represent all the citizens, except the ones I offended
• Shelley Berkley (NV) funneled money towards the hospital where her husband is employed. No big deal, I just need my husband to make a little extra…
• Todd Akin (MO) said women who are legitimately raped don’t get pregnant. Oh I’m just gonna go ahead and fuck this one up…
• Michael Baumgartner (WA) wrote an email saying “Take a look at this Navy SEAL who died and then go f*ck yourself.” I can’t wait to tell Maria Cantwell to go f*ck herself in a debate

Yes, you should need to be of sound mind before running for office. Or being elected. This is democracy, not an idiocracy.

Open Letter to Republicans: How Could You Have Been So Stupid?

August 21, 2012

An Open Letter to Republicans (Especially Conservatives) in America:

Do you not learn any type of lessons? They said the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. I guess that is also the definition of conservatism in voting.

For the second third election cycle, conservatives have chosen Senate candidates who cannot or will not win. Let’s look at them, shall we:

2008 (-8 seats and GOP loss of Senate)

• Colorado: Bob Schaffer and his ties to Abramoff; lost a GOP seat
• New Mexico: Steve Pearce, too conservative for the state; lost a GOP seat
• Virginia: Jim Gilmore, failed 2008 presidential nominee; lost a GOP seat

2010 (+6 seats, but not enough to retake control)

• Alaska: Joe Miller and the handcuffed journalist; held a GOP seat due to write-in by incumbent Murkowski
• Colorado: Ken Buck instead of more popular, moderate Jane Norton; failed pickup opportunity, Dem retain
• Connecticut: Linda McMahon instead of more moderate Rob Simmons; failed pickup opportunity, Dem retain
• Delaware: Christine freaking O’Donnell over Mike Castle. Castle would have picked up this seat in a blowout….gosh darn, this still makes me mad; failed pickup opportunity, Dem retains.
• Nevada: Sharon Angle instead of…anyone; failed pickup opportunity, Dem retains

2012 (yet to be determined)

• Connecticut: Linda McMahon (again) over more moderate Chris Shays: Dem favorite to retain
• Indiana: Richard Murdock over incumbent Richard Lugar; tossup status
• Maine: Conservative grassroots HATE Olympia Snowe, pushing her into retirement, easily losing this seat; Dem favorite to pickup
• Missouri: Todd Akin over Brunner or Steelman; one gaffe makes this a tossup versus GOP pickup

I will acknowledge the GOP base in some states made excellent decisions (Heather Wilson in NM, Tommy Thompson in WI) but Senate control is going to come down to 1 or 2 seats we could have won with better candidates.

The GOP base has to stop putting a litmus test on their candidates. You have to run the right Republican for certain states. Scott Brown isn’t the most conservative, but he’s the right Republican for Massachusetts. Same with Olympia Snowe/Susan Collins in Maine. The Democrats mastered this, picking up seats in 2006 and 2008 by running more moderate/conservative Democrats in states that lean more moderate/conservative: Florida, Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana, Louisiana.

If the GOP can’t win the Senate back in 2012, 2014 has to be the year if the right people are chosen for the right states. You have pickup opportunities in Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, West Virginia, Montana, New Hampshire, and North Carolina and no GOP seats in moderate states up for grabs except Maine, and Susan Collins is the right choice for Maine. At the least, 2014 should be a GOP +6 year (and a guaranteed GOP +3 year, because no way Begich, Pryor, or Landrieu are re-elected).

Don’t screw it up, guys. Stop putting ideological purity before elections. If you run the most conservative candidate and they lose, what was the point? Better to have someone who votes with you 80% of the time than someone who votes with you 20% of the time.

A Poll of No Confidence

The only thing more split this year than Presidential Election polling is Senate polling. The House is almost assuredly going to stay Republican due to redistricting and a sizable majority. Will the Senate finally turn red after Republicans (read: Tea Party) blew it in 2010?

Let’s take a look:

• Arizona: Sen. John Kyl is retiring after three terms and serving as Minority Whip this session. US Rep. Jeff Flake is taking on former Surgeon General Richard Carmona (who served under President George W. Bush). State demographics would tilt this Democrat due to the high Hispanic population, but Arizona also has a sizable Mormon population and low-Hispanic turnout. MODERATE GOP LEAN/HOLD
• California: Three term Senator Dianne Feinstein is up this year and will face Autism advocate and former IBM Cost Analyst Elizabeth Emken. The latest field poll shows Feinstein polling way below Obama and only up 12% on Emken. But California is California and even in a wave election, the GOP couldn’t touch Boxer last cycle. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
• Connecticut: Independent (and perpetual thorn in the side of both parties) Joe Lieberman is retiring. 2010 GOP nominee Linda McMahon of WWE fame and Dem. Rep. Chris Murphy will face off after defeating opposition by 75% of the vote. Despite spending ten million dollars in 2010, McMahon couldn’t even take the open seat. I don’t think she has a chance this year barring a Romney blowout. MODERATE DEM LEAN/DEM PICKUP
• Delaware: Two-term Sen. Tom Carper is up against…who? STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
• Florida: Two-term Sen. Bill Nelson faces an uphill battle with strong headwinds in a presidential year. He will face U.S. Rep. Connie Mack IV. A strong candidate in Mack and a tough year for Nelson makes this a top 5 race.  Whichever presidential candidate wins FL, so goes the Senate race. TOSSUP/GOP PICKUP
• Hawaii: An open seat, Democratic U.S. Rep Maze Hirono will face former Republican Gov. Linda Lingle. Lingle is a strong candidate, but having to go against President Obama at the top of the ticket in his home state. It’ll take a massive effort but it is not in her favor. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
• Indiana: Now an open race, Richard Murdock knocked off longtime incumbent Richard Lugar on the GOP side. For the Dems, U.S. Rep Joe Donnelly will face him. Obama won’t win Indiana again, but something about this race bothers me. WEAK GOP LEAN/HOLD
• Maine: Sen. Olympia Snowe surprised the political world with her retirement. A shoo-in for reelection, it now falls to a threeway race: State Sen. Cynthia Dill for the Dems, State Sec. of State Charles Summers for the GOP, and former Gov. Angus King as an Independent. King has not announced who he will caucus with, but the Democratic Senate Committee is pretty sure he’ll caucus with the Dems and has given no backing to Dill. It’s still Maine….MODERATE DEM LEAN/DEM PICKUP
• Maryland: First-term Sen. Ben Cardin faces former USSS Agent Daniel Bongino. Never heard of him and I doubt voters have either. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
• Massachusetts: THE race of the year. Incumbent Sen. Scott Brown faces the Harvard-educated, liberal activist Elizabeth Warren. A lot of money has been raised and the polls are razor thin. Tie goes to the incumbent. TOSSUP/HOLD
• Michigan: Two-term incumbent Debbie Stabenow faces former U.S. Rep Pete Hoesktra, famous for his oddly racist ad against China and Senator “Spend-it-Now” (lol). His only chance is a Romney blowout. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
• Minnesota: Incumbent Amy Klobuchar faces Ron Paul-ite Kurt Bills, State Rep. and an economics teacher. Sen. Klobuchar has kept her nose down and her name out of the news, so she’s good for a second term. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
• Mississippi: Incumbent Roger Wicker will face…someone named Al Gore, Jr. (Don’t ask me how he’s a “Jr,” he looks about 112 and…no relation to another Gore). Okay then…STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
• Missouri: One-term incumbent Claire McCaskill will face U.S. Congress Todd Akin, who won over Palin-endorsed State Treasure Sarah Steelman and “endorsed by everyone else” John Brunner. A lot of trouble for Sen McCaskill, despite weaker than expected opposition. MODERATE GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
• Montana: Incumbent Jon Tester will face Rep. U.S. Rep Danny Rehberg. This is a surprisingly close race in a state as red as Montana, but in the end, I think Rehberg rides Romney’s coattails to Washington. TOSSUP/GOP PICKUP
• Nebraska: Sen. Ben Nelson retired (because he had no chance of winning). Former Senator Bob Kerrey flew back from New York to run in his place. Deb Fischer came from third to first behind Sarah Palin’s help and will fly to Washington D.C. as the next Senator. STRONG GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
• Nevada: Sen. Dean Heller will face ethics-plagued U.S. Rep. Shelly Berkley. Despite the state’s Obama lean, Berkley is in serious trouble over the ethics complaint. Heller wins due to incumbency. MODERATE GOP LEAN/HOLD
• New Jersey: Incumbent Bob Menendez will face State Sen. Joseph Kyrillos. Menendez is not terribly popular but should win, barring a miracle Romney pickup of NJ behind Chris Christie’s help. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
• New Mexico: Open race time! Another top 5 tossup. U.S. Rep. Martin Heinrich for the Dems and former U.S. Rep Heather Wilson for the GOP. Polls show neither candidate with a significant lead outside the MoE. Hold for now. TOSSUP/HOLD
• New York: Senator Kirsten Gillibrand will go up against Attorney Wendy Long. Gillibrand has New York and Schumer behind her. Romp. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
• North Dakota: Sen. Kent Conradt is retiring, leading to another open-race tossup. For the GOP, U.S. Rep Rick Berg; for the Dems, former State AG Heidi Heitkamp. She’s a good candidate, but ND is red, red, red. MODERATE GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
• Ohio: Incumbent Dem. Sen Sherrod Brown will face State Treasurer Josh Mandel. Mandel, who looks like he just graduated HS, is a money-raising machine, but for the life of me, I cannot figure out how Brown is the favorite. Yet, he is, barring an Romney romp of 5 or more points. WEAK DEM LEAN/HOLD
• Pennsylvania: Incumbent Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. is not his father, but Keystone residents think he is. Either way, businessman Tom Smith is a no one. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
• Rhode Island: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (sweet name) will face…someone. Whatever. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
• Tennessee: Incumbent Sen. Bob Corker is facing…someone. Whatever. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
• Texas: This was the premier matchup on the GOP side after incumbent Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison decided not to run again. Former State Solicitor General Ted Cruz defeated Lt. Governor David Dewhurst in a run-off. Texas…red…STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
• Utah: Sen. Orrin Hatch managed to be renominated (by a lot) and will face…someone. This is the reddest state in the country. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
• Vermont: Incumbent Bernie Sanders (self described democratic socialist) will face…who cares. STRONG DEM (SOCIALIST) LEAN/HOLD
• Virginia: The race of all races this year. Incumbent Jim Webb retired, setting up a fight between former Gov. and DNC Chair Tim Kaine and former US Senator George Allen who wants his seat back. Kaine runs a point or so better than Obama, but like Florida, he who wins the state wins the seat. Give me Allen right now. TOSSUP/GOP PICKUP
• Washington: Incumbent Maria Cantwell will face State Rep and veteran Michael Baumgartner. Washington was fool’s gold for the GOP in 2010 and even though Cantwell is not very popular, she will win. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
• West Virginia: 2010 rematch, incumbent Joe Manchin against businessman John Raese. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Manchin will win, but he’ll be a Republican by 2013/14. Book it. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
• Wisconsin: Another open-race tossup party! Former Gov and HHS Tommy Thompson, who was a reformer but being a reformer was cool, will face U.S. Rep Tammy Baldwin. Wisconsin has been the epicenter of politics in 2012 (recall…Rep. Paul Ryan…battleground) and Thompson is way popular. WEAK GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
• Wyoming: Did you know John Barrasso is the Senator from Wyoming? He will still be the Senator from Wyoming in 2013. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD

So there you have it. By my estimate, the next Senate will be 53-47 GOP control. The hapless KY Senator Mitch McConnell will be Senator Majority Leader. Woohoo? For no one.

Winning? We talking about practice!

I think everyone has pretty much decided this election is gonna be on par with 2000 and 2004…only the select few get to even decide who wins. I’m pretty sure about 80% of the country doesn’t even need to vote. But for the lucky few, congratulations, you’re a swing state! Your prize: a lot of TV ads and visits and media coverage. Have fun with that.

*****

Purple Strategies polled some of the main swing states for 2012 and they tell us….nothing. Nothing that we didn’t already know. The race is close. Unsurprisingly close. It’s like a 1-1 ballgame and we are about to hit the 7th inning stretch. Keeping up with the metaphors, someone will screw up “Take Me Out to the Ballgame” or “God Bless America” during the stretch (Party Conventions) and the other will take the lead. But for now…. (with Swing State Scale too!)

• Ohio…the battlegrounds of battlegrounds. If 2004 wasn’t fun enough for you Buckeye residents, you get to do it 8 years later! Romney-Ryan is up 46-44 after Obama/Biden were up 48-45 last month (-5 Obama). On the Swing State Scale: Migraine…it’ll be like this for a while
• Virginia…the Johnny-come-Lately of battlegrounds. R/R up 48-45, a gain of +1 since July. On the Swing State Scale: Brain Tumor…the Senate race will make this one the most watched in the country
• Colorado…also a relatively new swing state. O/B up 49-46, +2 since July. On the Swing State Scale: Tension Headache…should go away by the end of the conventions
• Florida…don’t we know this one well. Party like it’s 2000! R/R up 48-47, -2 for Romney since July. Swing State Scale: Brain Tumor…the epicenter of Mediscare and a very watched Senate race

*****

Consider this “Wednesday Polling Update.” Wednesdays will be from now on my President Prediction Days. I’ll categorize Solid O, Leans O, Tossup, Leans R, Solid R and provide maps as well. I’ll do the Senate on Thursday (a lot of fun for me, trust me).

So without further ado…

Solid O: Washington, Oregon, California, Minnesota, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, D.C., Hawaii, Maryland, Rhode Island (212)

Leans O: New Mexico, Michigan (21)

Tossup: Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire (95)

Leans R: Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina (47)

Solid R: Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia (159)

Today’s Prediction: Romney/Ryan 286, Obama/Biden 252 (Linky for the map)

Where the tossups went:

• Colorado, Nevada to Obama
• Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire to Romney

*****

Tune in tomorrow for Senate predictions