Category Archives: Swing States

I Can Make Up Polls Too

Someone should hire me, my polls are probably a thousand times better than CBS and Quinnipiac. Why is that? Let’s look at their Ohio poll:

  • Obama leads Romney 50-45. The sample: 35/26/34. D+9….nearly double the margin from 2008. Who the heck believes the Democrats are MORE enthused this year and the Republicans will turn out at their lowest point in half a century? Hint: no one.
  • Romney is up 7 with independents….a 15-point shift from 2008…
  • D+9…5 point lead….losing independents by high single-digits…and only a 5 point lead is…wow, not good for Team Obama.

NBC/WSJ national poll has the race tied at 47%. Why is this one bad for Team Obama:

  • 41/53 right/wrong direction
  • 49/48 Obama job approval; 46/52 on economy
  • Only 37% asked where McCain voters
  • 44/38/15 with leaners…independents way way way undersampled
  • Romney +2 in the gender gap…huge.

Romney +2 in Rasmussen; +3 in swing states

Romney +2 in GWU/Politico Battleground

Tied in PPP

Romney +7 in Gallup as of yesterday (another day of the 7-day average will drop off today around noon)

Swing States

Per RCP averages (anomalies in parentheses)

Ohio Obama +2.2 (+1, +3, tie, +1….+5 is the anomaly…) its more like +1 right now

Florida Romney +2.1

Virginia Tie (-5 is the anomaly with Romney +1, 3, 1)

New Hampshire Romney +1 (the anomaly is Romney +3…Tie, +1, -1)

Colorado Romney +0.2 (-3 is the anomaly…-2, +1, +1, +4)

Iowa Obama +2.4 (Obama +8 is the anomaly…+2, tie, +3, -1)

Wisconsin Obama +2.8 (Obama +6 is the anomaly…+2, +3, +1, +2)

Right now I’m comfortable with Romney 261 – Obama 243….Iowa is a tossup (O+1)….Ohio is a tossup (O+1.25)…Wisconsin is a tossup (Obama +2)…the rest are trending Romney (FL, VA, NH, CO)…

Third debate tonight….WEEEEEE

The 170 Million Dollar Man

Romney raises $170 million…about $10 million less than Obama…not too shabby.

$191 million cash on hand. All this came in the 47%/post-DNC slide month. Well done Mitt.

AAAAAAAAAND

Romney 51-Obama 46 in Gallup/USA Today Swing State Polls.

Quite the October surprise…the debate, the bumps, the money.

On Good Polls, Bad Polls, and Candy Crowley

Let’s start at the very beginning.

  • WaPo/ABC: Obama 49, Romney 46 among LV. The caveat: D+9. Two cycles from D+8 and one cycle from tied turnout, suddenly, Democrats are more energized than 2008? As if. Obama up 3 with a D+9 translates to more like Romney +2 with a D+6 or even Romney +4 with a D+4 (more likely).

And followed it up with:

  • ARG on Iowa: tie race at 48-48. Last month, Obama was up 7. D+1 (same as 2008).
  • ARG in Virginia has Romney +1. Last month, Obama +2. D+5 (D+6 in 2008).
  • ARG National has Romney +1 on a D+4. Leads indys by 14. Obama cannot and will not win losing independents by double digits.
  • Gravis has Colorado Obama +2.
  • PPP has North Carolina Romney +2. Sample way more Democratic than it will be this year.
  • PPP has Romney +1 in Florida.
  • PPP has Obama +5 in Ohio.

And on Candy Crowley:

  • Both debates are not happy with what Crowley believes her role is in the debates. She is a facilitator, as this debate is more a “town hall” style debate. She believes she can steer the conversation instead of moderating it. No. This is the same woman who called the Romney-Ryan ticket a “death wish.” Impartial moderator my Aunt Fanny.

 

The Electoral Tie Breaker

Some new polls out to make this race interesting:

  • VA, Romney up 51-44 (ARG)
  • FL, Romney up 51-47 (Rasmussen)
  • NH, Romney up 50-46 (ARG)
  • Maine, an internal has Romney down 44-48 and leading in Maine’s 2nd CD…the potential tie breaker

According to a new poll shared exclusively with POLITICO, Mitt Romney is leading President Obama in a congressional district in Maine — raising the possibility of the GOP nominee winning an electoral vote in a deep blue state.

The live-call poll, conducted by Glen Bolger of NMB Research and provided to POLITICO by American Crossroads communications director Jonathan Collegio, shows Obama winning statewide 48 percent to 44 percent.

That result already puts Romney in a surprisingly competitive position in a nominally blue state.

But in Maine’s second congressional district, Romney actually tops Obama 49 percent to 44 percent.

In most states, that such a result wouldn’t mean much. But Maine is one of two states in the country that splits its electoral college vote by congressional district.

The second congressional district, encompassing the northern and western part of the state, is largely rural and overwhelmingly white — groups that Obama has never done well among.

During redistricting, the Republican legislature also shifted two towns — Waterville and Winslow — that went heavily for Obama in 2008 from the second congressional district into the first — giving the GOP ticket a boost by removing two population centers from the district.

The idea of a state splitting its electoral vote is not farfetched either.

Obama famously won a single electoral vote in Nebraska’s second congressional district — encompassing Omaha and its suburbs.

The poll points to the surprising possibility of a similar situation in Maine — a state that has not voted for a Republican at the presidential level since 1988.

The poll surveyed 500 statewide likely voters, polled October 7-8 — giving the poll a margin of error of about plus or minus 4 percent.

In the RCP poll of polls:

  • Ohio, O+1.3
  • Florida, R+2
  • Virginia, O+0.6
  • North Carolina, R+3.3
  • Iowa, O+3.2
  • Colorado, R+0.6
  • Wisconsin, O+2.3
  • Missouri, R+5.2
  • New Hampshire, O+0.7
  • Nevada, O+1.6

The Virginia averages do not have the new ARG poll in there; NH, NV, WI, OH are all trending towards tied…Very interesting to watch.

My newest predictions: Romney 274-Obama 264. Romney takes ME-2, NH, VA, FL, NC, MO, IA, WI, and CO. He is the first Republican to win the presidency without Ohio.

Romney’s Trickle Down Effect

Romney’s masterful debate performance could bolster downballot Republicans in swing states across the country.

After the debate, he’s now down two, 45-47 in Pennsylvania, and the GOP challenger to Dem. Sen. Casey now trails 44-46. Windfall.

New LV Journal Poll shows Obama up one in Nevada, 47-46. That should give GOP Sen. Dean Heller some more breathing room against Shelley Berkley.

Improving poll numbers in OH, WI, VA, FL could hypothetically help Mandel, Thompson, Allen, and Mack, respectively. Where it needs to help is places like MA (Brown), CA (Emken), MI (Hoekstra), MN (Billings), and HI (Lingle).

House races should benefit remarkably in these states too. Maybe the GOP is going to add to their majority, rather than the conventional wisdom of losing a seat or two.

Either way, trickle down does work. Take that.

Suffolk Polling: We’re not polling Florida, Virginia, or North Carolina anymore, because Romney is going to win those.

If that’s the case, and you put PA as a tossup, it’s Romney 248-Obama 217 (237 with PA). NV, WI, OH, IA, CO, OH, NH are left.

Expanding the Map

Michigan, Romney cuts the deficit from 37-47 to 45-48.

Pennsylvania, Romney cuts the deficit to two, 45-47. And he’s up by a point among those with an excellent chance to vote.

 

Post-Debate Polling

All the polling since the debate has seen a Romney bounce, both in favorablility and percentage of voters. Voters overwhelmingly believe Romney won the debate, by a 50+ point margin(!!!!)

Rasmussen (all voters): 48-48

Gallup (all voters): 47-47

Politico/Battleground: 48-47 Obama

Florida Rasmussen: 49-47 Romney

PPP Wisconsin: 49-47 Obama

Rasmussen Iowa: 49-47 Obama

PPP Virginia: 50-47 Obama

Rasmussen Colorado: 49-48 Obama

Rasmussen Ohio: 50-49 Obama

In some of these polls, Romney has narrowed the margins significantly…try 5 points for Gallup.

Debates are the equalizer. Romney looked presidential. He acted presidential. He sounded presidential. Obama did not.

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