Todd Akin is officially the nominee in Missouri. The deadline has passed and he is the nominee for the Missouri Senate Seat being rented by Claire McCaskill.
Time to go all in. Missouri is crucial to the Republicans taking over the Senate. Jim Demint is in. Rick Santorum is in. Roy Blunt is in. NRSC, get in!
Montana is a win
North Dakota in a win
Wisconsin is a win
Nebraska is a win
Massachusetts is a retain
Nevada is a retain
50-48-1…Missouri has to be won.
TGIF!!!!!!!!!! I could not be more excited for it. This has seemed like a week from hell…o operator.
So to the Dump. No coffee this morning. It’s a Dr. Pepper kinda day.
Akin Watch: Day 4
- He says he is staying. I say he’ll be out within a few weeks. No money, no support, down 10 in the polls (in a poll with a Republican-bias!)
So, maybe the news isn’t all bad for Republican control of the Senate? Let’s go straight to predictions and explanations!
- Arizona: No change from last week. MODERATE GOP LEAN/HOLD
- California: No change from last week. I’m excited to see Emken go on CNN Monday morning. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
- Connecticut: This one has moved into a tossup. A new poll had McMahon up 49-46 and Connecticut looks a lot less friendly to Obama. Could a Republican upset happen here? Until I see another poll tell me otherwise, I say yes. TOSSUP/GOP PICKUP
- Delaware: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Florida: No change. I still think the way Florida goes in November decides the winner between Nelson and Mack. TOSSUP/GOP PICKUP
- Hawaii: No change yet. Hirono and Lingle are going to debate 8 times between now and November. Lots of room for change. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Indiana: Still not a lot of polling, so no change. WEAK GOP LEAN/HOLD
- Maine:No change. Still not a lot of polling and King has still not declared a caucus yet. MODERATE DEM LEAN/DEM PICKUP
- Maryland: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Massachusetts: A PPP poll had Brown up 5 points yesterday. Looking like Brown’s race to lose. TOSSUP/HOLD
- Michigan: Two new polls have given Hoekstra a lead and another Stabenow in the low single-digits. Romney’s coattails could make this an upset. TOSSUP/HOLD
- Minnesota: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Mississippi: Incumbent: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
- Missouri: Call it a tossup now. Actually, as long as Akin is the nominee, McCaskill will win. Weak Dem lean with the chance to jump back to GOP with a new nominee. WEAK DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Montana: Montana is looking RED as RED can be this year. Moving this to GOP lean. WEAK GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
- Nebraska: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
- Nevada: No change. MODERATE GOP LEAN/HOLD
- New Jersey: No change. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
- New Mexico: No change yet. TOSSUP/HOLD
- New York: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
- North Dakota: No change. MODERATE GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
- Ohio: No change. WEAK DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Pennsylvania: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Rhode Island: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Tennessee: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
- Texas: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
- Utah: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
- Vermont: No change. STRONG DEM (SOCIALIST) LEAN/HOLD
- Virginia: Virginia is looking like a lean blue state in November, so I’m moving this one down to a Dem hold. TOSSUP/HOLD
- Washington: No change. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
- West Virginia: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
- Wisconsin: Thompson looks to be getting stronger and Wisconsin is looking like a Romney state. Moving this up a little. MODERATE GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
- Wyoming: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
Last week I had it at 52-47-1 (GOP/Dem/Independent King); this week we have it at: 52-47-1. Haha. Missouri goes blue, Connecticut goes red. Total wash.
So I’ve spent all morning thinking it was the 22nd. TGIF, tomorrow…TO THE DUMP! (Abbreviated today)
- Rumors of war within Los Zetas. Man, that shouldn’t make Mexico any less violent, corrupt, or prone to mass murders that spill over into the American Southwest…
Akin Watch: Day 3
- Rasmussen teased a poll showing Claire McCaskill up 10 points on Akin. Private sources have said he’d drop out if he’s down 5+ points…
Time for some presidential polling and predictions! Please, don’t get so excited, you might pass out.
Gallup and Rasmussen have shown a consistent tie to Romney +2. WSJ/NBC last night has Obama +4 and AP today has Obama +1.
Update on some state polling done in the last week:
- Survey USA in Nevada: Obama +2 (47/45)
- Baydoun/Foster (D) in Michigan: Romney +4 (48/44)
- PPP (D) in Wisconsin: Romney +1 (48/47)
- PPP (D) in Virginia: Obama +5 (50/45)
- CNN in Wisconsin: Obama +4 (49/45)
- Rasmussen in Wisconsin: Romney +1 (48/47)
- Rasmussen in Florida: Romney +2 (4/43)
- Mitchell Research in Michigan: Obama +5 (49/44)
- Franklin and Marshall in Pennsylvania: Obama +5 (47/42)
So let’s go state by state in our categories:
- Solid Obama: California, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Washington D.C. (182)
- Leans Obama: Connecticut*, New Mexico, Oregon**, Pennsylvania*** (39)
- Tossup: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin (111)
- Leans R: Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina (47)
- Solid R: Alabama, Alaska Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming (159)
August 22nd Prediction: Romney 280-Obama 258 (+6 Obama)
Where the tossups went:
- Nevada, Virginia to Obama (lost Colorado, gained Virginia)
- Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin to Romney (lost Virginia, gained Colorado and Michigan)
*Connecticut moves from Solid to Leans on the basis of PPP polling that Obama has dropped -14 from 2008, from a 22-point win to only an 8-point lead.
**Oregon drops not due to polling, but because of an electoral “twinsies” with Wisconsin, but a teensy bit more liberal (hence, Leans, not Tossup)
***Pennsylvania drops due to polling
Why do we not require anyone running for office to pass a mental fitness test? Seriously, it just puzzles me how these people want to be the ones to devise solutions to our country’s greatest problems.
Let’s take a look at some of these people we keep nominating to run for office:
- Dianne Feinstein (CA) let her “campaign treasurer” steal $4.5 million dollars from her campaign treasury right out from under her nose. Can’t handle my money, let me handle yours…
- Connie Mack IV (FL) has a feud going with the state’s most prominent journalist. Can’t handle a state journalist, but I’ll deal with NYT, WaPo, WSJ, etc just fine!
- Elizabeth Warren (MA) lied about her family’s ethnic background and using it to obtain diversity employment. No big deal, I didn’t mean it…I’ll never lie to you again!
- Richard Murdock (IN) told reporters his idea of compromise in Washington was the Democrats agreeing with Republicans, not vice versa. Only I know the answers, you must only listen to me!
- Pete Hoekstra (MI) with his highly-racist ad about the Chinese. I represent all the citizens, except the ones I offended
- Shelley Berkley (NV) funneled money towards the hospital where her husband is employed. No big deal, I just need my husband to make a little extra…
- Todd Akin (MO) said women who are legitimately raped don’t get pregnant. Oh I’m just gonna go ahead and fuck this one up…
- Michael Baumgartner (WA) wrote an email saying “Take a look at this Navy SEAL who died and then go f*ck yourself.” I can’t wait to tell Maria Cantwell to go f*ck herself in a debate
Yes, you should need to be of sound mind before running for office. Or being elected. This is democracy, not an idiocracy.
At a foreign policy event in Missouri today, former Clinton Secretary of State Madeleine Albright was asked by a gentleman ‘So how long are you people going to blame the previous administration?” Assuming it was a campaign event (which I don’t believe it was), she responded, “FOREVER!”
I hope that’s the way the Democrats continue to go. No personality responsibility on their part, only President George W. Bush. This not a Bush recession, this is a Clinton-Bush-Congress recession. Clinton’s housing policies started this, Bush’s spending continue it, and Congress’ lack of restraint and inability to see the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac debacle coming finished it.
President Obama said after four year, it was his economy. Perhaps Ms. Albright should realize Bush isn’t on the ballot. Bush hasn’t been in office for four years and he hasn’t been out blaming other people since leaving office. Democrats have such a problem leaving office and staying out of the news (Jimmy Carter…Bill Clinton…). Let sleeping dogs lie and get on with it.
Albright also warned the crowd that if you liked all the people who served under Bush, they will be back under Mitt Romney. I’m so glad Madeleine Albright knows what personnel Mitt Romney is going to hire. I didn’t know she was privy to such information.
While I respect her for serving as the United States’ first female Secretary of State, she needs to know when her comments are not necessary.