Time to Go All In

Todd Akin is officially the nominee in Missouri. The deadline has passed and he is the nominee for the Missouri Senate Seat being rented by Claire McCaskill.

Time to go all in. Missouri is crucial to the Republicans taking over the Senate. Jim Demint is in. Rick Santorum is in. Roy Blunt is in. NRSC, get in!

Montana is a win
North Dakota in a win
Wisconsin is a win
Nebraska is a win
Massachusetts is a retain
Nevada is a retain

50-48-1…Missouri has to be won.

Let’s go.

Morning Dump, August 24th

TGIF!!!!!!!!!! I could not be more excited for it. This has seemed like a week from hell…o operator.

So to the Dump. No coffee this morning. It’s a Dr. Pepper kinda day.

World News

• Norway’s justice system blows schpoople. A Norwegian court sentenced a man who killed 77 people to…21 years in prison…roughly 99 days/victim. That’s the MAXIMUM, the minimum is 10 years, about 42 days/victim. Scandinavian justice is a farce.
• Iran is expanding its nuclear capabilities. Israel is gonna blow them out of the water and turn the Middle East into a wasteland…oh wait, it already is.

U.S. News

• Praying for the victims in NYC. Can the senseless violence in that city ever stop? Thank God for that soda ban though…
• Mitt Romney’s nomination has been moved up to Monday. Not in order to accommodate Hurricane Isaac (which, incidentally, is the son of Sarah in the Bible!), but to appease Paulites.
• Hey Harry Reid, why not have your own Senators step up and release their tax returns? WHY NOT INDEED?

Akin Watch: Day 4

• He says he is staying. I say he’ll be out within a few weeks. No money, no support, down 10 in the polls (in a poll with a Republican-bias!)

Akin for Control of the Senate

So, maybe the news isn’t all bad for Republican control of the Senate? Let’s go straight to predictions and explanations!

• Arizona: No change from last week. MODERATE GOP LEAN/HOLD
• California: No change from last week. I’m excited to see Emken go on CNN Monday morning. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
• Connecticut: This one has moved into a tossup. A new poll had McMahon up 49-46 and Connecticut looks a lot less friendly to Obama. Could a Republican upset happen here? Until I see another poll tell me otherwise, I say yes. TOSSUP/GOP PICKUP
• Delaware: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
• Florida: No change. I still think the way Florida goes in November decides the winner between Nelson and Mack. TOSSUP/GOP PICKUP
• Hawaii: No change yet. Hirono and Lingle are going to debate 8 times between now and November. Lots of room for change. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
• Indiana: Still not a lot of polling, so no change. WEAK GOP LEAN/HOLD
• Maine:No change. Still not a lot of polling and King has still not declared a caucus yet. MODERATE DEM LEAN/DEM PICKUP
• Maryland: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
• Massachusetts: A PPP poll had Brown up 5 points yesterday. Looking like Brown’s race to lose.  TOSSUP/HOLD
• Michigan: Two new polls have  given Hoekstra a lead and another Stabenow in the low single-digits. Romney’s coattails could make this an upset. TOSSUP/HOLD
• Minnesota: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
• Mississippi: Incumbent: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
• Missouri: Call it a tossup now. Actually, as long as Akin is the nominee, McCaskill will win. Weak Dem lean with the chance to jump back to GOP with a new nominee. WEAK DEM LEAN/HOLD
• Montana: Montana is looking RED as RED can be this year. Moving this to GOP lean. WEAK GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
• Nebraska: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
• Nevada: No change. MODERATE GOP LEAN/HOLD
• New Jersey: No change. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
• New Mexico: No change yet. TOSSUP/HOLD
• New York: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
• North Dakota: No change. MODERATE GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
• Ohio: No change. WEAK DEM LEAN/HOLD
• Pennsylvania: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
• Rhode Island: No change. STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
• Tennessee: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
• Texas: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
• Utah: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD
• Vermont: No change. STRONG DEM (SOCIALIST) LEAN/HOLD
• Virginia: Virginia is looking like a lean blue state in November, so I’m moving this one down to a Dem hold. TOSSUP/HOLD
• Washington: No change. MODERATE DEM LEAN/HOLD
• West Virginia: No change.  STRONG DEM LEAN/HOLD
• Wisconsin: Thompson looks to be getting stronger and Wisconsin is looking like a Romney state. Moving this up a little. MODERATE GOP LEAN/GOP PICKUP
• Wyoming: No change. STRONG GOP LEAN/HOLD

Last week I had it at 52-47-1 (GOP/Dem/Independent King); this week we have it at: 52-47-1. Haha. Missouri goes blue, Connecticut goes red. Total wash.

The Morning Dump, August 23rd

So I’ve spent all morning thinking it was the 22nd. TGIF, tomorrow…TO THE DUMP! (Abbreviated today)

World News

• Rumors of war within Los Zetas. Man, that shouldn’t make Mexico any less violent, corrupt, or prone to mass murders that spill over into the American Southwest…

U.S. News

• Condi Rice will be the speaker before Paul Ryan, effectively introducing him at the Repblican National Convention. Could this be her introduction to elective politics, perhaps an office in California?
• Man, the post-Akin outlook sure doesn’t look too bad…
• Hurricane Isaac may stall the GOP Convention. In ’08, the GOP cut their convention by a day (in St. Paul) because they didn’t want to appear to be partying during a hurricane. Maybe we shouldn’t schedule conventions in hurricane-prone states at the end of summer (Florida/North Carolina).

Texas News

• Oh Lubbock, the craphole of Texas.

Akin Watch: Day 3

• Rasmussen teased a poll showing Claire McCaskill up 10 points on Akin. Private sources have said he’d drop out if he’s down 5+ points…

 

 

Polls…POLLS…POLLS!!

Time for some presidential polling and predictions! Please, don’t get so excited, you might pass out.

Gallup and Rasmussen have shown a consistent tie to Romney +2. WSJ/NBC last night has Obama +4 and AP today has Obama +1.

Update on some state polling done in the last week:

• Survey USA in Nevada: Obama +2 (47/45)
• Baydoun/Foster (D) in Michigan: Romney +4 (48/44)
• PPP (D) in Wisconsin: Romney +1 (48/47)
• PPP (D) in Virginia: Obama +5 (50/45)
• CNN in Wisconsin: Obama +4 (49/45)
• Rasmussen in Wisconsin: Romney +1 (48/47)
• Rasmussen in Florida: Romney +2 (4/43)
• Mitchell Research in Michigan: Obama +5 (49/44)
• Franklin and Marshall in Pennsylvania: Obama +5 (47/42)

So let’s go state by state in our categories:

• Solid Obama: California, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Washington D.C. (182)
• Leans Obama: Connecticut*, New Mexico, Oregon**, Pennsylvania*** (39)
• Tossup: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin (111)
• Leans R: Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina (47)
• Solid R: Alabama, Alaska Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming (159)

August 22nd Prediction: Romney 280-Obama 258 (+6 Obama)

Where the tossups went:

• Nevada, Virginia to Obama (lost Colorado, gained Virginia)
• Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin to Romney (lost Virginia, gained Colorado and Michigan)

 

*Connecticut moves from Solid to Leans on the basis of PPP polling that Obama has dropped -14 from 2008, from a 22-point win to only an 8-point lead.

**Oregon drops not due to polling, but because of an electoral “twinsies” with Wisconsin, but a teensy bit more liberal (hence, Leans, not Tossup)

***Pennsylvania drops due to polling

Welcome to the Idiocracy

Why do we not require anyone running for office to pass a mental fitness test? Seriously, it just puzzles me how these people want to be the ones to devise solutions to our country’s greatest problems.

Let’s take a look at some of these people we keep nominating to run for office:

• Dianne Feinstein (CA) let her “campaign treasurer” steal $4.5 million dollars from her campaign treasury right out from under her nose. Can’t handle my money, let me handle yours…
• Connie Mack IV (FL) has a feud going with the state’s most prominent journalist. Can’t handle a state journalist, but I’ll deal with NYT, WaPo, WSJ, etc just fine!
• Elizabeth Warren (MA) lied about her family’s ethnic background and using it to obtain diversity employment. No big deal, I didn’t mean it…I’ll never lie to you again!
• Richard Murdock (IN) told reporters his idea of compromise in Washington was the Democrats agreeing with Republicans, not vice versa. Only I know the answers, you must only listen to me!
• Pete Hoekstra (MI) with his highly-racist ad about the Chinese. I represent all the citizens, except the ones I offended
• Shelley Berkley (NV) funneled money towards the hospital where her husband is employed. No big deal, I just need my husband to make a little extra…
• Todd Akin (MO) said women who are legitimately raped don’t get pregnant. Oh I’m just gonna go ahead and fuck this one up…
• Michael Baumgartner (WA) wrote an email saying “Take a look at this Navy SEAL who died and then go f*ck yourself.” I can’t wait to tell Maria Cantwell to go f*ck herself in a debate

Yes, you should need to be of sound mind before running for office. Or being elected. This is democracy, not an idiocracy.

Ole Straddlin’ Madeleine Albright: Let’s Blame Bush Forever

At a foreign policy event in Missouri today, former Clinton Secretary of State Madeleine Albright was asked by a gentleman ‘So how long are you people going to blame the previous administration?” Assuming it was a campaign event (which I don’t believe it was), she responded, “FOREVER!”

I hope that’s the way the Democrats continue to go. No personality responsibility on their part, only President George W. Bush. This not a Bush recession, this is a Clinton-Bush-Congress recession. Clinton’s housing policies started this, Bush’s spending continue it, and Congress’ lack of restraint and inability to see the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac debacle coming finished it.

President Obama said after four year, it was his economy. Perhaps Ms. Albright should realize Bush isn’t on the ballot. Bush hasn’t been in office for four years and he hasn’t been out blaming other people since leaving office. Democrats have such a problem leaving office and staying out of the news (Jimmy Carter…Bill Clinton…). Let sleeping dogs lie and get on with it.

Albright also warned the crowd that if you liked all the people who served under Bush, they will be back under Mitt Romney. I’m so glad Madeleine Albright knows what personnel Mitt Romney is going to hire. I didn’t know she was privy to such information.

While I respect her for serving as the United States’ first female Secretary of State, she needs to know when her comments are not necessary.

Open Letter to Republicans: How Could You Have Been So Stupid?

August 21, 2012

An Open Letter to Republicans (Especially Conservatives) in America:

Do you not learn any type of lessons? They said the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. I guess that is also the definition of conservatism in voting.

For the second third election cycle, conservatives have chosen Senate candidates who cannot or will not win. Let’s look at them, shall we:

2008 (-8 seats and GOP loss of Senate)

• Colorado: Bob Schaffer and his ties to Abramoff; lost a GOP seat
• New Mexico: Steve Pearce, too conservative for the state; lost a GOP seat
• Virginia: Jim Gilmore, failed 2008 presidential nominee; lost a GOP seat

2010 (+6 seats, but not enough to retake control)

• Alaska: Joe Miller and the handcuffed journalist; held a GOP seat due to write-in by incumbent Murkowski
• Colorado: Ken Buck instead of more popular, moderate Jane Norton; failed pickup opportunity, Dem retain
• Connecticut: Linda McMahon instead of more moderate Rob Simmons; failed pickup opportunity, Dem retain
• Delaware: Christine freaking O’Donnell over Mike Castle. Castle would have picked up this seat in a blowout….gosh darn, this still makes me mad; failed pickup opportunity, Dem retains.
• Nevada: Sharon Angle instead of…anyone; failed pickup opportunity, Dem retains

2012 (yet to be determined)

• Connecticut: Linda McMahon (again) over more moderate Chris Shays: Dem favorite to retain
• Indiana: Richard Murdock over incumbent Richard Lugar; tossup status
• Maine: Conservative grassroots HATE Olympia Snowe, pushing her into retirement, easily losing this seat; Dem favorite to pickup
• Missouri: Todd Akin over Brunner or Steelman; one gaffe makes this a tossup versus GOP pickup

I will acknowledge the GOP base in some states made excellent decisions (Heather Wilson in NM, Tommy Thompson in WI) but Senate control is going to come down to 1 or 2 seats we could have won with better candidates.

The GOP base has to stop putting a litmus test on their candidates. You have to run the right Republican for certain states. Scott Brown isn’t the most conservative, but he’s the right Republican for Massachusetts. Same with Olympia Snowe/Susan Collins in Maine. The Democrats mastered this, picking up seats in 2006 and 2008 by running more moderate/conservative Democrats in states that lean more moderate/conservative: Florida, Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana, Louisiana.

If the GOP can’t win the Senate back in 2012, 2014 has to be the year if the right people are chosen for the right states. You have pickup opportunities in Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, West Virginia, Montana, New Hampshire, and North Carolina and no GOP seats in moderate states up for grabs except Maine, and Susan Collins is the right choice for Maine. At the least, 2014 should be a GOP +6 year (and a guaranteed GOP +3 year, because no way Begich, Pryor, or Landrieu are re-elected).

Don’t screw it up, guys. Stop putting ideological purity before elections. If you run the most conservative candidate and they lose, what was the point? Better to have someone who votes with you 80% of the time than someone who votes with you 20% of the time.

The Morning Dump, August 21st

Here comes your Morning Dump for Tuesday. Such an awkward day of the week, but we soldier through it; though, under my plan, Tuesday is the new Monday.
World News

• It is about time someone noticed how screwed my generation is (no, screwed…not screwed up…)! The Euro Crisis is not rich vs. poor, people vs. banks, it’s young vs. old. The Baby Boomers are dead set on living and retiring on the backs of Gen X and Gen Y, forcing our generations into bankruptcy and insolvency. See, not just a problem in this country. Even “the great European countries” suffer too.
• Putin Cracks Down on Pussy. The Russian band Pussy Riot, who walked into a public square and insulted the patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church. Two years in jail for all three members of the band. Putin hates music…what’ a fascist. Also, TATU was a much better Russian band. Just sayin‘.

U.S. News

• Virginia’s “photo ID” law has been cleared by the DOJ. I say “photo ID” because you can show certain non-photo forms of ID, but now, you can’t vote without an ID by signing an affidavit anymore. More states taking necessary steps to protect our fundamental rights.
• Mission to Mars!! NASA announced yesterday an unmanned mission in 2016 to drill into the red planet’s surface. Again: why are we not funding this enough??
• Money makes the world go ’round…Challenger Mitt Romney now has more money in the bank than President Obama. For the President, running a campaign is like running this U.S. Government, as his campaign spent more than it took in. That’s why we are in this mess, just sayin’.
• Quick poll: Romney made a good pick. A Monmouth poll has Paul Ryan at 31/27 fav/unfav (compared to 30/35 for VP Biden). He’s even with women and young voters, and positive at 36/31 among seniors. 56% say good pick. Score one for Romney.

Texas News

• Sigh…
• Perry blasts Obama for immigration, but says he won’t do anything. And yes, this man ran for President. Big ideas, people. Big ideas…I eagerly await 2014….

Interesting Tidbit of the Day

• A new poll by PPP to be released this morning (and teased on Twitter) says 44% of Wisconsin Republicans would consider voting for an openly gay candidate, 39% say no. But Wisconsin GOP is 93% behind Tommy Thompson over Tammy Baldwin.

“Achin’ for Akin” Watch

• He has until 5pm today to withdraw without needing to take it to court.
• Quick PPP poll last night has him up 1 on Claire McCaskill, same as last time.
• SurveyUSA poll had only 35% say Akin should say in the race.
• Akin Campaign has picked up an 8/22-27 media buy.

This Is the Single Greatest Thing to Happen on Television

Oh Todd Akin, there is really nothing you can do at this point.

Piers Morgan just made you the worst joke in politics.