Garbage in, garbage out

Garbage polls by NBC/WSJ as per usual.

Wisconsin: Obama 50 – Romney 45

D/R/I: 33/28/38 (D+5)

Iowa: Obama 50 – Romney 42

D/R/I: 36/31/33 (D+5)

Colorado: Obama 50 – Romney 45

D/R/I: 34/32/32 (D+2)

 

As usual, the polling assumes a Democratic turnout nearly equal to 2008, the highwater for the Dems. D+6 was the turnout in 2008…I am about 99.9% sure November is going to be closer to D+2 or even.

Garbage in, garbage out. Polls create narratives. The media narrative: OBAMA IS WINNING. Internal polling says otherwise, or else Obama wouldn’t be in Iowa/Wisconsin considering the margin he won by in 2008.

Scattershots

Polls are nothing more than a snapshot in time, meant to create a narrative that one candidate is winning or pulling away and another is falling and fading. Most polls have awful sample skews and/or ask the questions in a way that show obvious bias.

Nonetheless, some scattershots:

• AP poll has Obama up 1, 47/46
• CBS/NYT Colorado: Obama 48/47
• CBS/NYT Virginia: Obama 50/46*
• CBS/NYT Wisconsin: Obama 51/45
• Rasmussen New Hampshire: Romney 48/45
• WeAskAmerica Virginia: Obama 49/46

Digging deep into the polls, we find some have relatively normal sample sizes (CBS/NYT Colorado has R+1) but some are so weird (CBS/NYT Virginia had a D+11 sample size, which is +5 more than ’08 turnouts, but Romney is crushing with indies 53-42).

Let me address that Virginia poll. A 4-point race with a +11 Democratic sample, nearly double 2008, where the Republican wins indies by double-digits. Let me tell you, if you adjust that poll to even ’08 turnout, Romney is at least tied or barely ahead in Virginia.

That Colorado poll, with an R+1 sample, suggests Obama wins independents by a single point, 47/46. Obama took Colorado purely by running up his margin with independents in the suburbs, where Republicans still have a huge voting edge. Romney is probably a marginal favorite in Colorado.

Let’s say Romney is the favorite in Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, and New Hampshire…Obama is the favorite in Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Michigan…now its 248R-243O…I think Iowa goes Romney, but (at this point) Wisconsin goes Obama…254R-253O…Romney has to take Ohio to win (272) as Virginia doesn’t get him there (267)…or he can lose Ohio, win Virginia, but he has to steal a state (Wisconsin is the best bet). There are some unusual paths for him, but there are paths based on polling.

• All Signs Point to a Tight Race: Those watching the daily tracking polls know that, while the President has seen a bounce from his convention, his approval has already begun to slip, indicating it is likely to recede further.  In eight states, Pollster.com’s reporting of the most recent statewide polls puts the margin between the two candidates at less than three points, virtually guaranteeing a tight race.

• Next, the battlefield has actually expanded, not contracted.  Note that Wisconsin is now in play and our campaign is now up with ads in that state, while the latest poll numbers from the Albuquerque Journal in New Mexico show the race closing there.  And this tightening is not an anomaly.  Consider the traditional Democratic strongholds of New Jersey and Connecticut, won by President Obama in 2008 by margins of 15 points and 22 points, respectively.  In both states, Pollster.com’s reporting of the most recent statewide polls puts Obama’s lead at only seven points in each of these states.

• In North Carolina, fresh off of hosting the Democratic National Convention, the Obama campaign is laying the groundwork for a stealth withdrawal.  In a state the President won by a mere 14,000 votes in 2008, all one has to do is look at the Obama campaign’s television buy in the state to understand how they view their chances there.  The Obama campaign’s North Carolina television buy has dropped 35% compared to June, and they have run more than twice as much advertising over the past two weeks in Rochester, Minnesota (hitting a small slice of Iowa), than they have in any North Carolina market.

THIS ELECTION IS SO OVER!

Because the mainstream media says so.

I mean, Romney is up 47-45 in Rasmussen Presidential and up 47-46 in the Rasmussen Swing State Tracking. OVER.

And now Gallup is showing Obama only up by 1, 47-46. Bounce? Gone. Election? OVER

Gravis has Romney up 1 in FL….Rasmussen has Romney up 3 in Colorado…Baydoun/Foster has Romney -2 in Michigan…Rasmussen has Romney -1 in Virgina…O.V.E.R.

So Dems…no need to go vote…this election is OVAH.

Comparing the Benches

So with the Republican National Conference over and the Democratic National Convention starting, one only has to look at the speakers to see who the rising stars (“the benches”) are for each party. Let’s put them in a depth chart

Republicans:

• First String: VA Gov. Bob McDonnell; WI Gov. Scott Walker; SC Gov. Nikki Haley; NJ Gov. Chris Christie; LA Gov. Bobby Jindal; SD Sen. John Thune; Former Sec. of State Condoleezza Rice; WI  Rep. Paul Ryan; FL Sen. Marco Rubio
• Second String: NH Sen. Kelly Ayotte; OK Gov. Mary Fallin; NV Gov. Brian Sandoval; KY Sen. Rand Paul; OH Sen. Rob Portman; PR Gov. Luis Fortuño; NM Gov. Susana Martinez; Former FL Gov. Jeb Bush; TX Sen. Ted Cruz
• Third String: ND Sen. John Hoeven; TN Rep. Marsha Blackburn; WA Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rodgers; Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love; OH Gov. John Kasich; Former MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty

Democrats

• First String: CO Gov. John Hickenlooper; Former VA Gov. Tim Kaine; MD Gov. Martin O’Malley; Secretary of State Hillary Clinton; MT Gov. Brian Schweitzer; MA Senate Candidate Elizabeth Warren
• Second String: Newark Mayor Corey Booker; San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro; Chicago Mayor Rahm Emmanuel; Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx; NC Sen. Kay Hagan; Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter; Vice President Joe Biden; MN Senator Amy Klobuchar; Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Vilagarossa
• Third String: WI Senate Candidate Tammy Baldwin; House of Representatives Candidate Joaquin Castro; MA Gov. Deval Patrick; Former OH Gov. Ted Strickland; Houston Mayor Annisse Parker

Morning Dump, September 4, 2012

Holy cow, it is September. Now I have to get used to writing that instead of August (as I originally typed in the heading)

• “Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago? …No…I mean yes…I mean, sure, I mean…purple?”
• An I in school is worse than a letter grade…it means you didn’t do any work!

Weekend Polls (with my interest tidbits)

• All tied up in NC per PPP, 48-48. Interesting notes: +7 in favorability for Romney since last poll; biggest winners from the GOP Convention were Condi Rice (62/25) and Ann Romney (54/26)…Rubio +17, Martinez +16, Christie +8, Ryan +4
• No bounce in Florida, per PPP, 48-47 Obama. Interesting notes: +5 in favorability for Romney since last poll; biggest winners from GOP Convention were Condi Rice (66/22) and Ann Romney (56/22)…Rubio +18, Martinez +19, Christie +9, Ryan +7 (lol Mediscare)
• Colorado narrowing, per PPP, 49-46 Obama. Interesting notes: +3 in favorability for Romney since last poll; biggest winners from GOP Convention were Condi Rice (65/22) and Ann Romney (50/31)…Rubio +18, Martinez +20, Christie +9, Ryan +5
• Michigan narrowing, per PPP, 51-44 Obama. Interesting notes: Romney is -4 in favorability in his “home state;” biggest winners from the GOP convention: Condi Rice (64/21) and Ann Romney (51/27)…Rubio +13, Martinez +18, Christie +6, Ryan +5

What I gather: the convention boosted Romney’s favorability in key states; Ryan is seen positively at this point; Ann Romney continues to be a boost for the campaign; and holy cow Condi Rice is LOVED

The Democratic National Convention starts tonight, with San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro as the keynote. I’ll be tuning it for that.

Polls…POLLS…POLLS!!

Time for some presidential polling and predictions! Please, don’t get so excited, you might pass out.

Gallup and Rasmussen have shown a consistent tie to Romney +2. WSJ/NBC last night has Obama +4 and AP today has Obama +1.

Update on some state polling done in the last week:

• Survey USA in Nevada: Obama +2 (47/45)
• Baydoun/Foster (D) in Michigan: Romney +4 (48/44)
• PPP (D) in Wisconsin: Romney +1 (48/47)
• PPP (D) in Virginia: Obama +5 (50/45)
• CNN in Wisconsin: Obama +4 (49/45)
• Rasmussen in Wisconsin: Romney +1 (48/47)
• Rasmussen in Florida: Romney +2 (4/43)
• Mitchell Research in Michigan: Obama +5 (49/44)
• Franklin and Marshall in Pennsylvania: Obama +5 (47/42)

So let’s go state by state in our categories:

• Solid Obama: California, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Washington D.C. (182)
• Leans Obama: Connecticut*, New Mexico, Oregon**, Pennsylvania*** (39)
• Tossup: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin (111)
• Leans R: Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina (47)
• Solid R: Alabama, Alaska Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming (159)

August 22nd Prediction: Romney 280-Obama 258 (+6 Obama)

Where the tossups went:

• Nevada, Virginia to Obama (lost Colorado, gained Virginia)
• Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin to Romney (lost Virginia, gained Colorado and Michigan)

 

*Connecticut moves from Solid to Leans on the basis of PPP polling that Obama has dropped -14 from 2008, from a 22-point win to only an 8-point lead.

**Oregon drops not due to polling, but because of an electoral “twinsies” with Wisconsin, but a teensy bit more liberal (hence, Leans, not Tossup)

***Pennsylvania drops due to polling

Open Letter to Republicans: How Could You Have Been So Stupid?

August 21, 2012

An Open Letter to Republicans (Especially Conservatives) in America:

Do you not learn any type of lessons? They said the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. I guess that is also the definition of conservatism in voting.

For the second third election cycle, conservatives have chosen Senate candidates who cannot or will not win. Let’s look at them, shall we:

2008 (-8 seats and GOP loss of Senate)

• Colorado: Bob Schaffer and his ties to Abramoff; lost a GOP seat
• New Mexico: Steve Pearce, too conservative for the state; lost a GOP seat
• Virginia: Jim Gilmore, failed 2008 presidential nominee; lost a GOP seat

2010 (+6 seats, but not enough to retake control)

• Alaska: Joe Miller and the handcuffed journalist; held a GOP seat due to write-in by incumbent Murkowski
• Colorado: Ken Buck instead of more popular, moderate Jane Norton; failed pickup opportunity, Dem retain
• Connecticut: Linda McMahon instead of more moderate Rob Simmons; failed pickup opportunity, Dem retain
• Delaware: Christine freaking O’Donnell over Mike Castle. Castle would have picked up this seat in a blowout….gosh darn, this still makes me mad; failed pickup opportunity, Dem retains.
• Nevada: Sharon Angle instead of…anyone; failed pickup opportunity, Dem retains

2012 (yet to be determined)

• Connecticut: Linda McMahon (again) over more moderate Chris Shays: Dem favorite to retain
• Indiana: Richard Murdock over incumbent Richard Lugar; tossup status
• Maine: Conservative grassroots HATE Olympia Snowe, pushing her into retirement, easily losing this seat; Dem favorite to pickup
• Missouri: Todd Akin over Brunner or Steelman; one gaffe makes this a tossup versus GOP pickup

I will acknowledge the GOP base in some states made excellent decisions (Heather Wilson in NM, Tommy Thompson in WI) but Senate control is going to come down to 1 or 2 seats we could have won with better candidates.

The GOP base has to stop putting a litmus test on their candidates. You have to run the right Republican for certain states. Scott Brown isn’t the most conservative, but he’s the right Republican for Massachusetts. Same with Olympia Snowe/Susan Collins in Maine. The Democrats mastered this, picking up seats in 2006 and 2008 by running more moderate/conservative Democrats in states that lean more moderate/conservative: Florida, Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana, Louisiana.

If the GOP can’t win the Senate back in 2012, 2014 has to be the year if the right people are chosen for the right states. You have pickup opportunities in Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, West Virginia, Montana, New Hampshire, and North Carolina and no GOP seats in moderate states up for grabs except Maine, and Susan Collins is the right choice for Maine. At the least, 2014 should be a GOP +6 year (and a guaranteed GOP +3 year, because no way Begich, Pryor, or Landrieu are re-elected).

Don’t screw it up, guys. Stop putting ideological purity before elections. If you run the most conservative candidate and they lose, what was the point? Better to have someone who votes with you 80% of the time than someone who votes with you 20% of the time.

Winning? We talking about practice!

I think everyone has pretty much decided this election is gonna be on par with 2000 and 2004…only the select few get to even decide who wins. I’m pretty sure about 80% of the country doesn’t even need to vote. But for the lucky few, congratulations, you’re a swing state! Your prize: a lot of TV ads and visits and media coverage. Have fun with that.

*****

Purple Strategies polled some of the main swing states for 2012 and they tell us….nothing. Nothing that we didn’t already know. The race is close. Unsurprisingly close. It’s like a 1-1 ballgame and we are about to hit the 7th inning stretch. Keeping up with the metaphors, someone will screw up “Take Me Out to the Ballgame” or “God Bless America” during the stretch (Party Conventions) and the other will take the lead. But for now…. (with Swing State Scale too!)

• Ohio…the battlegrounds of battlegrounds. If 2004 wasn’t fun enough for you Buckeye residents, you get to do it 8 years later! Romney-Ryan is up 46-44 after Obama/Biden were up 48-45 last month (-5 Obama). On the Swing State Scale: Migraine…it’ll be like this for a while
• Virginia…the Johnny-come-Lately of battlegrounds. R/R up 48-45, a gain of +1 since July. On the Swing State Scale: Brain Tumor…the Senate race will make this one the most watched in the country
• Colorado…also a relatively new swing state. O/B up 49-46, +2 since July. On the Swing State Scale: Tension Headache…should go away by the end of the conventions
• Florida…don’t we know this one well. Party like it’s 2000! R/R up 48-47, -2 for Romney since July. Swing State Scale: Brain Tumor…the epicenter of Mediscare and a very watched Senate race

*****

Consider this “Wednesday Polling Update.” Wednesdays will be from now on my President Prediction Days. I’ll categorize Solid O, Leans O, Tossup, Leans R, Solid R and provide maps as well. I’ll do the Senate on Thursday (a lot of fun for me, trust me).

So without further ado…

Solid O: Washington, Oregon, California, Minnesota, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, D.C., Hawaii, Maryland, Rhode Island (212)

Leans O: New Mexico, Michigan (21)

Tossup: Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire (95)

Leans R: Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina (47)

Solid R: Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia (159)

Today’s Prediction: Romney/Ryan 286, Obama/Biden 252 (Linky for the map)

Where the tossups went:

• Colorado, Nevada to Obama
• Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire to Romney

*****

Tune in tomorrow for Senate predictions