I Can Make Up Polls Too

Someone should hire me, my polls are probably a thousand times better than CBS and Quinnipiac. Why is that? Let’s look at their Ohio poll:

• Obama leads Romney 50-45. The sample: 35/26/34. D+9….nearly double the margin from 2008. Who the heck believes the Democrats are MORE enthused this year and the Republicans will turn out at their lowest point in half a century? Hint: no one.
• Romney is up 7 with independents….a 15-point shift from 2008…
• D+9…5 point lead….losing independents by high single-digits…and only a 5 point lead is…wow, not good for Team Obama.

NBC/WSJ national poll has the race tied at 47%. Why is this one bad for Team Obama:

• 41/53 right/wrong direction
• 49/48 Obama job approval; 46/52 on economy
• Only 37% asked where McCain voters
• 44/38/15 with leaners…independents way way way undersampled
• Romney +2 in the gender gap…huge.

Romney +2 in Rasmussen; +3 in swing states

Romney +2 in GWU/Politico Battleground

Tied in PPP

Romney +7 in Gallup as of yesterday (another day of the 7-day average will drop off today around noon)

Swing States

Per RCP averages (anomalies in parentheses)

Ohio Obama +2.2 (+1, +3, tie, +1….+5 is the anomaly…) its more like +1 right now

Florida Romney +2.1

Virginia Tie (-5 is the anomaly with Romney +1, 3, 1)

New Hampshire Romney +1 (the anomaly is Romney +3…Tie, +1, -1)

Colorado Romney +0.2 (-3 is the anomaly…-2, +1, +1, +4)

Iowa Obama +2.4 (Obama +8 is the anomaly…+2, tie, +3, -1)

Wisconsin Obama +2.8 (Obama +6 is the anomaly…+2, +3, +1, +2)

Right now I’m comfortable with Romney 261 – Obama 243….Iowa is a tossup (O+1)….Ohio is a tossup (O+1.25)…Wisconsin is a tossup (Obama +2)…the rest are trending Romney (FL, VA, NH, CO)…

Third debate tonight….WEEEEEE

Around the Horn, 10/18: This Day in Politics

• Surprise! Jobless claims rise. Numbers adjusted to reflect bad data. I’m so surprised. “In the week ending October 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 388,000, an increase of 46,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 342,000.” Recovery!! /sarc
• White House says Obama will veto any bill blocking the fiscal cliff unless it raises taxes on the rich. “Freed from the political and economic constraints that have tied his hands in the past, Obama is ready to play hardball with Republicans, who have so far successfully resisted a deal to tame the debt that includes higher taxes, Obama’s allies say.” It means he is toast, he knows he is losing and he just wants to screw us one last time.
• Crazy Uncle Joe opens his mouth again: “We are absolutely — this is to our core — my daughter, and my granddaughters and Barack’s daughters are entitled to every single solitary operation! EVERY SINGLE SOLITARY OPERATION!” But not men, because no one needs their vote! /War on Men
• Mark Halperin says, are you kidding me? 3 weeks form the election and Obama is focused on “binders of women?” It’s called a desperation strategy/grasping at straws. Please look away and continue voting.
• Rasmussen Daily Tracking: Romney 49 – Obama 46. Romney is gaining separation even post-second debate. With learners: 49-47 Romney. 47%…just like Romney said…
• Michelle Obama: “See, but your president, he didn’t point fingers. He didn’t place blame. Instead, he got to work, because he was thinking about folks like my dad and like his grandmother.” Right, please ignore Obama and his surrogates screaming BUSH!!!!1!!!!11 as loud as they can with their fingers in their ears. Michelle goes under the bus in 3…2…1…

Jump Ball in Wisky

Marquette University Law School out with their newest poll of Presidential and Senate preferences in Wisconsin.

• Obama leads Romney 49-48, within the MOE of 4.9%. Before the first debate, Obama led 53-42%. 10 point swing for Romney. Change mostly among indies.
• Obama job approval is 48/48.
• Obama favorability is 52/48.
• Romney favorability is 46/48.
• 49% favorability for Ryan in his home state.
• Gender gap: Obama was up 25 with women, now 4 points. 21 point swing towards Romney.

As for the Senate race, Thompson leads Baldwin 46-45%. Last month was Baldwin up 4 points on Tommy. Her favorability: 32/47%. Was 40/40 last month. Thompson at 37/50, basically unchanged. Voters who see Baldwin as “too liberal” nearing 50% before Crossroads/TT ad blitz.

10 electoral votes and a valuable Senate seat completely at a tossup.

Up, up, and away

Romney is now up 6!!! amongst LV in Gallip, 51-45.

He’s up 2(!!!!) among RV, 48-46.

Ann approves.

The Buck Stops With Me; Polls; Ohio

So says Hillary Clinton. “I take full responsibility.” She threw herself under the Obama bus. As Newt said last night, she’s lost the 2016 primary and she lost the presidency yesterday. No Hill-Billy 2016 I guess…

Scattershots:

• That Gallup/USA Today poll from yesterday has Obama +3 (51-48) in favorability and Romney +8 (52-44). 10 point swing since August!
• PPP/Daily Kos/SEIU has Romney up 50-46 nationally. That’s a Democratic pollster with Romney at 50%.
• AMA (American Medical Association) endorses Ryan-style Medicare reform. Take that, Joe Biden.
• Could Pennsylvania be in play? This is ALWAYS the “gotcha” state for GOP every presidential cycle. Quinnipiac has Obama up 4, 50-46; Muhlenberg has Obama up 4, 49-45. If Romney can force Obama to spend money in the Keystone State and if it goes red on November 6, it’ll be a landslide for Romney.
• New Hampshire poll from last night has it 47/47 in the presidential race. Not surprising.

Updated 2012 Map:

• Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado move into the Romney camp. 257
• Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania move into the Obama camp. 243
• Iowa (6), Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10), and New Hampshire (4) are toss-up.

Why is Ohio so hard to figure out?

• Exit polls in 2008 showed 39/33/30 DRI…based on actual results (Obama 51.5-46.9), actual party breakdown was 36.5/32.5/30 DRI…D+5, not D+8. Exit polls are the definition of inexact science. Almost every poll to date has a D+4 or higher, which ASSUMES higher Democratic turnout than 2008.
• Romney is up with independents in every poll. Obama CANNOT win Ohio without winning independents, not if turnout is D+5 or lower.
• One cannot assume D+5 turnout or higher, because: Romney is and has more money to spend on ads compared to McCain; Romney rallies are infinitely higher than McCain or even Palin rallies in 2008. Enthusiasm + money on the GOP side = win.

Second Presidential Debate tonight. I’ll have more on that later and a recap afterwards.

The 170 Million Dollar Man

Romney raises $170 million…about $10 million less than Obama…not too shabby.

$191 million cash on hand. All this came in the 47%/post-DNC slide month. Well done Mitt.

AAAAAAAAAND

Romney 51-Obama 46 in Gallup/USA Today Swing State Polls.

Quite the October surprise…the debate, the bumps, the money.

On Good Polls, Bad Polls, and Candy Crowley

Let’s start at the very beginning.

• WaPo/ABC: Obama 49, Romney 46 among LV. The caveat: D+9. Two cycles from D+8 and one cycle from tied turnout, suddenly, Democrats are more energized than 2008? As if. Obama up 3 with a D+9 translates to more like Romney +2 with a D+6 or even Romney +4 with a D+4 (more likely).

And followed it up with:

• ARG on Iowa: tie race at 48-48. Last month, Obama was up 7. D+1 (same as 2008).
• ARG in Virginia has Romney +1. Last month, Obama +2. D+5 (D+6 in 2008).
• ARG National has Romney +1 on a D+4. Leads indys by 14. Obama cannot and will not win losing independents by double digits.
• Gravis has Colorado Obama +2.
• PPP has North Carolina Romney +2. Sample way more Democratic than it will be this year.
• PPP has Romney +1 in Florida.
• PPP has Obama +5 in Ohio.

And on Candy Crowley:

• Both debates are not happy with what Crowley believes her role is in the debates. She is a facilitator, as this debate is more a “town hall” style debate. She believes she can steer the conversation instead of moderating it. No. This is the same woman who called the Romney-Ryan ticket a “death wish.” Impartial moderator my Aunt Fanny.

 

The Electoral Tie Breaker

Some new polls out to make this race interesting:

• VA, Romney up 51-44 (ARG)
• FL, Romney up 51-47 (Rasmussen)
• NH, Romney up 50-46 (ARG)
• Maine, an internal has Romney down 44-48 and leading in Maine’s 2nd CD…the potential tie breaker

According to a new poll shared exclusively with POLITICO, Mitt Romney is leading President Obama in a congressional district in Maine — raising the possibility of the GOP nominee winning an electoral vote in a deep blue state.

The live-call poll, conducted by Glen Bolger of NMB Research and provided to POLITICO by American Crossroads communications director Jonathan Collegio, shows Obama winning statewide 48 percent to 44 percent.

That result already puts Romney in a surprisingly competitive position in a nominally blue state.

But in Maine’s second congressional district, Romney actually tops Obama 49 percent to 44 percent.

In most states, that such a result wouldn’t mean much. But Maine is one of two states in the country that splits its electoral college vote by congressional district.

The second congressional district, encompassing the northern and western part of the state, is largely rural and overwhelmingly white — groups that Obama has never done well among.

During redistricting, the Republican legislature also shifted two towns — Waterville and Winslow — that went heavily for Obama in 2008 from the second congressional district into the first — giving the GOP ticket a boost by removing two population centers from the district.

The idea of a state splitting its electoral vote is not farfetched either.

Obama famously won a single electoral vote in Nebraska’s second congressional district — encompassing Omaha and its suburbs.

The poll points to the surprising possibility of a similar situation in Maine — a state that has not voted for a Republican at the presidential level since 1988.

The poll surveyed 500 statewide likely voters, polled October 7-8 — giving the poll a margin of error of about plus or minus 4 percent.

In the RCP poll of polls:

• Ohio, O+1.3
• Florida, R+2
• Virginia, O+0.6
• North Carolina, R+3.3
• Iowa, O+3.2
• Colorado, R+0.6
• Wisconsin, O+2.3
• Missouri, R+5.2
• New Hampshire, O+0.7
• Nevada, O+1.6

The Virginia averages do not have the new ARG poll in there; NH, NV, WI, OH are all trending towards tied…Very interesting to watch.

My newest predictions: Romney 274-Obama 264. Romney takes ME-2, NH, VA, FL, NC, MO, IA, WI, and CO. He is the first Republican to win the presidency without Ohio.

Romney’s Trickle Down Effect

Romney’s masterful debate performance could bolster downballot Republicans in swing states across the country.

After the debate, he’s now down two, 45-47 in Pennsylvania, and the GOP challenger to Dem. Sen. Casey now trails 44-46. Windfall.

New LV Journal Poll shows Obama up one in Nevada, 47-46. That should give GOP Sen. Dean Heller some more breathing room against Shelley Berkley.

Improving poll numbers in OH, WI, VA, FL could hypothetically help Mandel, Thompson, Allen, and Mack, respectively. Where it needs to help is places like MA (Brown), CA (Emken), MI (Hoekstra), MN (Billings), and HI (Lingle).

House races should benefit remarkably in these states too. Maybe the GOP is going to add to their majority, rather than the conventional wisdom of losing a seat or two.

Either way, trickle down does work. Take that.

Suffolk Polling: We’re not polling Florida, Virginia, or North Carolina anymore, because Romney is going to win those.

If that’s the case, and you put PA as a tossup, it’s Romney 248-Obama 217 (237 with PA). NV, WI, OH, IA, CO, OH, NH are left.

Is the Tide Actually Turning?

It sure seems so. Poll after poll show Romney leading nationally, gaining in the swing states. Obama is treading water, the Dems seem to be in disarray, and there’s a rumored campaign shake up.

Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP has Romney up 2 nationally, 49-47. This is in contrast to Obama up 49-45 last time.

Rasmussen, 48-48. Romney up in the swing state poll.

Siena has Pennsylvania a 3 point race with a lot of undecideds (which is odd less than a month out)…

Gallup has Obama up 5 in the tracker, but they are switching to likely voters today. Expect a dead heat or small Romney lead. UPDATE: 49-46 Obama among RV; 49-47 Romney among LV.

UPDATE: More polls!

• Colorado: 50-46 Romney (ARG)
• North Carolina: 50-41 Romney (Gravis)
• Ohio: Romney 48-47 Romney (ARG); 45-44 Obama (Survey USA)
• Nevada: 47-47 (Ras)….that’s a biggie, if Romney can take Nevada, he has that many more options to 270

I’m started to become less worried about the Presidency and more worried about the Senate…

• Ras has McMahon trailing 46-51, but tied with leaners.
• Brown and Warren race is still too close to see anything, poll yesterday had Warren +5 and today another had Brown +3.
• North Dakota still looks to be a dead heat…Berg is underperforming Romney by a lot.
• Virginia is going to go down the last vote, that’s a given.