Big Tent Republicanism and Looking Ahead to 2016

Former Secretary of State Condi Rice was on CBS this morning to talk election aftermath and where the GOP goes from here.

“Right now, for me the most powerful argument is that the changing demographics in the country really necessitates an even bigger tent for the Republican Party. I also think that many of the things for which the party stands are broadly popular with the American people — fiscal responsibility, a chance to educate your children in the way that you think best, the possibility of strong national defense — these are all things I think that can unite us,” Rice said.

She continued: “But when you look at the composition of the electorate, clearly, we are losing important segments of that electorate and what we have to do is to appeal to those people not as identity groups but understanding that if you can get the identity issue out of the way, then you can appeal on the broader issues that all Americans share a concern for.”

If you listened to Condi’s speech at the GOP Convention, she talked about this…about how the message of the Republican Party is to give the people opportunity to advance. We need to become a bigger, more inclusive party, pushing a message of freedom, opportunity, individual liberty, and social advancement through personal ambition.

Condi, who is in favor of civil unions and a comprehensive immigration reform, is the right speaker for our party. Strong on national defense and security and where our party needs to go on social issues. She’s an advocate for school choice and will make a great spokesperson for our party.

Moving forward, the path to the 2016 nomination looks twofold: for the Democrats, it goes through Hillary Clinton. According to PPP, in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Florida, Hillary races out of the pack and would be the clear favorite to succeed President Obama. If she chooses not to run, it looks like a knock down, drag out fight between Vice President Biden, NY Governor Andrew Cuomo, and MD Governor Martin O’Malley, with others sprinkled in.

For the Republicans, there is no clear favorite. In Iowa, Mike Huckabee; in New Hampshire, Chris Christie; in Florida, Jeb Bush. Paul Ryan, Condi Rice, and Rick Santorum are in the mix as well. Personally, I do not think Jeb will run, he knows he missed his chance and his mentee, Marco Rubio, will be one of the hot names. Jeb will be Education Secretary in a future administration or a viable candidate against Bill Nelson in 2018. Sarah Palin will not run and I encourage her to run for Senate in 2014. Rick Santorum’s time has come and gone, as has Mike Huckabee’s. I think Chris Christie is viable if he wins the governorship in 2013 again; if he loses, he might need to redeem himself with a Senate race in 2014. I wish wish wish wish wish Condi Rice will run but I think her path is the 2014 California Governor’s Race and she will win it.

Post-Debate Breakdown (Like the One Joe Biden Had)

Good Lord, last night was a mess. Disrespectful, catty, and unrestrained. And that was just Martha Radditz (BAZINGA!)

Short summary of the debate: Proverbs 29:9 “If a wise man has an argument with a fool,
the fool only rages and laughs, and there is no quiet.”

But seriously, my longer breakdown of the debate:

• Biden was a mess…the first 75 minutes, he was angry, disrespectful and smug. Smirking, laughing, rolling his eyes, interrupting, and just plain rude. His last 25 minutes were better – he calmed down, he got emotion and level with this audience, but still…his overall tone was one that turned off a lot of undecideds, especially women.
• Paul Ryan held his own, especially during taxes and the economy; however, Radditz decided the focus needed to be more foreign policy than domestic policy — why, I don’t know? He handled Biden’s smugness with class, he was calm and respectful, measured and poised, and did well. He was nervous at the beginning, got better as he went along, and ended with an excellent emotional appeal to the audience.
• Biden’s best moment: arguing for the middle class. His worst: contradicting the State Department and saying the Benghazi Embassy never asked for more security
• Ryan’s best moment: defending his and Romney’s plans for Medicare. His worst: Iraq and Afghanistan answers.
• Biden’s best line: “Stop talking about how you care about people. Show me something.” Solid.
  Second best line: “Their ideas are old, their ideas are bad.” Equally solid.
• Biden worst line: “Oh, now you’re Jack Kennedy?” Awkward delivery.
  Second worst line: “War should always be the last resort.” Definitely not last.
• Ryan’s best line: “With respect to that quote, I think the vice president very well knows that sometimes the words don’t come out of your mouth the right way.” Got laughs.
  Second best line: “Mr. Vice President, I know you’re under a lot of duress to make up for lost ground, but I think people would be better served if we don’t keep interrupting each other.” Adult in the room.
• Ryan’s worst line: “Mitt Romney’s a car guy.” Awkward.
  Second worst line: “And then I would say, you have a president who ran for president four years ago promising hope and change, who has now turned his campaign into attack, blame and defame.” Pointless.
• It was a draw on substance; on professionalism, Ryan won by a landslide; on energy, Biden romped. CBS says Biden won by nearly 20 points; CNN says Ryan won by 4 points and was more likeable by 10 points.
• Watching the CNN undecideds, men responded well to Biden (forceful, aggressive defense of the middle class); women responded well to Ryan (polite, gentle tone and measured responses).
• This debate will do nothing to move the needle of this race. It won’t sustain the Romney surge and it won’t create an Obama resurge. There won’t be enough time to poll in the field to measure the impact of the debate as Romney and Obama go back on stage Tuesday night.

What….Was…That

That was something, eh? Good Lord.

I don’t have words right now. I just hope I don’t dream about Biden laughing and smirking at me all night.

VP Debate Shot Party

Forgive me, I forgot this was tonight. Enjoy. Come back after for breakdown.

Comparing the Benches

So with the Republican National Conference over and the Democratic National Convention starting, one only has to look at the speakers to see who the rising stars (“the benches”) are for each party. Let’s put them in a depth chart

Republicans:

• First String: VA Gov. Bob McDonnell; WI Gov. Scott Walker; SC Gov. Nikki Haley; NJ Gov. Chris Christie; LA Gov. Bobby Jindal; SD Sen. John Thune; Former Sec. of State Condoleezza Rice; WI  Rep. Paul Ryan; FL Sen. Marco Rubio
• Second String: NH Sen. Kelly Ayotte; OK Gov. Mary Fallin; NV Gov. Brian Sandoval; KY Sen. Rand Paul; OH Sen. Rob Portman; PR Gov. Luis Fortuño; NM Gov. Susana Martinez; Former FL Gov. Jeb Bush; TX Sen. Ted Cruz
• Third String: ND Sen. John Hoeven; TN Rep. Marsha Blackburn; WA Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rodgers; Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love; OH Gov. John Kasich; Former MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty

Democrats

• First String: CO Gov. John Hickenlooper; Former VA Gov. Tim Kaine; MD Gov. Martin O’Malley; Secretary of State Hillary Clinton; MT Gov. Brian Schweitzer; MA Senate Candidate Elizabeth Warren
• Second String: Newark Mayor Corey Booker; San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro; Chicago Mayor Rahm Emmanuel; Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx; NC Sen. Kay Hagan; Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter; Vice President Joe Biden; MN Senator Amy Klobuchar; Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Vilagarossa
• Third String: WI Senate Candidate Tammy Baldwin; House of Representatives Candidate Joaquin Castro; MA Gov. Deval Patrick; Former OH Gov. Ted Strickland; Houston Mayor Annisse Parker

Morning Dump, August 22nd

Happy Hump Day, readers! Let’s get right down to it…this week already feels like it is just swirling around the toilet bowl, eh?

World News

• Greek PM Samaras says “he needs more time.” I think the EU leaders gave him enough time to get his country out of ruin, so…no.
• East Germany still has a Nazi problem. Yep, that’s what the whole world wants to hear and think about again…

U.S. News

• The Washington Monument did not sink any further into the ground following last year’s 5.8 quake in D.C. Thank goodness.
• Mitt Romney to Donors: I would explain my energy plan, but reporters are present. Oh for goodness sakes, this is why the news is relegated to reporting about dogs on car roofs and tax returns. Just stop it. Be the adult.
• VP Biden to be in Tampa during RNC Convention. Hehehehe…Plus, the GOP can respond ten-fold during the Charlotte Convention.
• Alaska’s Democrat registration is in steep decline. Does not bode well for 2014, Mark Begich…
• Matt Welch: ‘Condi Rice is the “wrong kin” for Augusta.’ That’s some racist bullsh*t. It only counts if they share your political views, right?

Akin Watch: Day 2

• Cook Political Report moves MO Senate Race from “Tossup” to “Lean Democrat.” Yeesh
• Sarah Palin (henceforth known as “The Boss” in this  blog) called on MO Republicans to start working on a write-in candidate in order to defeat McCaskill. Akin can still remove himself (through courts) by September 25th, so there’s a chance. MO has a “sore loser” law, meaning defeated candidates cannot run on another party in the General. So Steelman and Brunner cannot be run as write-ins, paving the way for one of the many qualified men and women to take his place. My favorite scenario: bait-and-switch, putting Ann Wagner on the Senate ticket and Akin back on his Congressional ticket. Wagner is an accomplished fundraiser with a sterling resume.
• Eleven reasons Todd Akin didn’t quit.

Presidential/Electoral College update coming later today! Some changes in the works.

The Morning Dump, August 21st

Here comes your Morning Dump for Tuesday. Such an awkward day of the week, but we soldier through it; though, under my plan, Tuesday is the new Monday.
World News

• It is about time someone noticed how screwed my generation is (no, screwed…not screwed up…)! The Euro Crisis is not rich vs. poor, people vs. banks, it’s young vs. old. The Baby Boomers are dead set on living and retiring on the backs of Gen X and Gen Y, forcing our generations into bankruptcy and insolvency. See, not just a problem in this country. Even “the great European countries” suffer too.
• Putin Cracks Down on Pussy. The Russian band Pussy Riot, who walked into a public square and insulted the patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church. Two years in jail for all three members of the band. Putin hates music…what’ a fascist. Also, TATU was a much better Russian band. Just sayin‘.

U.S. News

• Virginia’s “photo ID” law has been cleared by the DOJ. I say “photo ID” because you can show certain non-photo forms of ID, but now, you can’t vote without an ID by signing an affidavit anymore. More states taking necessary steps to protect our fundamental rights.
• Mission to Mars!! NASA announced yesterday an unmanned mission in 2016 to drill into the red planet’s surface. Again: why are we not funding this enough??
• Money makes the world go ’round…Challenger Mitt Romney now has more money in the bank than President Obama. For the President, running a campaign is like running this U.S. Government, as his campaign spent more than it took in. That’s why we are in this mess, just sayin’.
• Quick poll: Romney made a good pick. A Monmouth poll has Paul Ryan at 31/27 fav/unfav (compared to 30/35 for VP Biden). He’s even with women and young voters, and positive at 36/31 among seniors. 56% say good pick. Score one for Romney.

Texas News

• Sigh…
• Perry blasts Obama for immigration, but says he won’t do anything. And yes, this man ran for President. Big ideas, people. Big ideas…I eagerly await 2014….

Interesting Tidbit of the Day

• A new poll by PPP to be released this morning (and teased on Twitter) says 44% of Wisconsin Republicans would consider voting for an openly gay candidate, 39% say no. But Wisconsin GOP is 93% behind Tommy Thompson over Tammy Baldwin.

“Achin’ for Akin” Watch

• He has until 5pm today to withdraw without needing to take it to court.
• Quick PPP poll last night has him up 1 on Claire McCaskill, same as last time.
• SurveyUSA poll had only 35% say Akin should say in the race.
• Akin Campaign has picked up an 8/22-27 media buy.

Clash of the Titans

Politico’s Glen Thrush (very respected) is out with a new e-book about the Obama re-election campaign for 2012. It’s going for $2.99 on Amazon, Barnes & Nobles, Apple iBook Store, and Politics & Prose, and is titled Obama’s Last Stand.

The book details a lot of conflict within the 2012 campaign, in stark contrast to the 2008 campaign that was hailed for its organization.

Some highlights from Politico:

• President Obama told a friend of Senator Marco Rubio, “Tell your boy to watch it. He might get an ass kicked.”
• Obama will only throw a punch if it doesn’t make him look foolish. In May, Obama sent advisor David Axelrod to Boston to make the case against Governor Romney. Axelrod was met by protestors who drowned out the event; Obama, watching from the West Wing, was less than happy. “We aren’t going to do that kind of thing again, are we?”
• VP Joe Biden’s announcement of gay marriage approval In May created lot of tension without the White House. Biden felt thrown under the bus by the campaign after the VP screwed up  Team Obama’s planned roll-out of gay marriage support right before the Democratic Convention.
• Axelrod and Campaign Manager Stephanie Cutter went toe-to-toe and almost went off speaking terms after Axelrod felt Cutter was stealing TV appearances from him. The campaign was becoming less “all-for-Obama” and more “all-for-me.”
• Obama advisers began (and still are) worrying about Debbie Wasserman-Schultz as DNC head. Highly partisan and ready to hit the TV scene, she bothered the Obama campaign for many of her remarks. A private poll commissioned by the campaign ranked her near the bottom in terms of popularity with the public.
• Obama hates Romney. Unlike 2008, where he had a lot of respect for Sen. John McCain for being a war hero, he has a general contempt for Romney.

“Time and again Obama has told the people around him that Romney stood for “nothing.” The word he would use to describe Romney was “weak,” too weak to stand up to his own moneymen, too weak to defend his own moderate record as the man who signed into law the first health insurance mandate as Massachusetts governor in 2006, too weak to admit Obama had done a single thing right as president.”

• The two things President Obama feared most about Romney winning in November: the possibility of SCOTUS retirements making the court 7-2 in favor of the conservatives, and Romney taking credit for a recovering economy.“I’m not going to let him win … so that he can take credit when the economy turns around,” Obama said, according to an aide.
• The campaign regrets not sending a more season pol to start up a pro-Obama Super PAC  to combat Karl Rove. Obama believed trashing Super PACs and taking the high road would win him the election, before having to backtrack a few months later and reluctantly endorse Priorities USA. “We’re going to lose this [f-ing] thing. Why don’t they get it?” Messina said of Axelrod and Obama’s Super PAC stance.
• Obama and the DNC considered a historic convention staged in 4 cities in 4 nights. That turned out to be quickly scrapped.
• Obama remains frustrated by Hill Democrats, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Lader Harry Reid, going so far as to ask them to put his re-election over political priorities. “Look, guys. I plan on winning this race,” he said, according to a person briefed on the interaction. “If I don’t win, then anything we say now doesn’t matter. I plan on winning this race. So let’s figure out how to win this race.”

What this means in the long run, who knows. But it is a far cry from the respectful and highly touted 2008 organization that defeated Senator John McCain.

 

Hill-Dog is Ready to Rumble

So a lot of chatter that Pres. Obama asked Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to take over the VP spot and have VP Joe Biden step down for “medical reasons” or just plain retire (Or did he? Rumors also that is was confidant and pain the ass Valerie Jarrett who asked her).

The Washington Examiner said she was approached and rejected the invitation two weeks ago.

“As recently as a couple of weeks ago, the White House was putting out feelers to see if Hillary Clinton was interested in replacing Joe Biden on the ticket,” Klein told Secrets. “Bill Clinton, I’m told, was urging his wife to accept the number two spot if it was formally offered. Bill sees the vice presidency as the perfect launching pad for Hillary to run for president in 2016.”

Two vice presidents for the price of one!!

But this idea has a lot of pros and cons and could destroy the Democratic Party or give it a huge boost for years to come. Let’s discuss:

Pros

• Secretary Clinton is POPULAR. Head cheerleader popular. Like, oh my god. Talk about a boost to Obama’s iffy re-elect chances.
• If she’s added and Obama-Clinton wins in 2012, you immediately have a top-tier candidate for 2016. She does (and always will, so will Bill) have ambitions about her being President. This lays the groundwork and she’s immediately the top of the pack in ’16 (take that, Elizabeth Warren!)
• If she is added and Obama-Clinton wins in 2012 AND it is a successful second term for Obama, guess who gets a lot of the credit? Vice President Hillary Clinton. Which would probably put her as the odds-on favorite to beat whoever the GOP runs in 2016 (take that, Chris Christie!)

Cons

• She hurts the ticket. The Democratic Party is torn apart by the dumping of Biden and makes Obama out to look like he’s scared shitless (which he is…I mean, Seamus…chains…tax returns…)! This tanks his chances for re-elect because no incumbent President has dumped his VP while running for a second term since 1944.
• She’s added to the ticket and they lost. Now she’s a loser. She can still run in ’16, but guess what…Elizabeth Warren, Andrew Cuomo, and Martin O’Malley are nipping at her heels and ready to blame her for the ’12 loss. Cannibalism is the funnest part of politics!
• She’s added to the ticket and they win, but Obama’s second term is worse than his first. She’s still the favorite to win the Democratic nomination (most likely), but she’s looking to get demolished  by whomever the GOP runs (Christie, Ryan, Rubio, whatever….she could lose to Palin if the conditions are right).

Not sure the pros outweigh the cons in this case. And neither did she. Her best bet is to retire as Secretary of State and start laying the groundwork for a 2016 run regardless of what happens. She can run to succeed Obama (most likely successor) or she can run to challenge the incumbent President Mitt Romney.

Klein has sources deep in the Clinton camp and he said that they said she is eager for a rest followed by a makeover. “She clearly is exhausted. She needs to lose weight and get her energy back for a four-year slog.”

So pull out those placards and bumper stickers and a sharpie folks. Hillary ’16??

Morning Dump, August 16th

Good morning everyone. Now that you’ve had your coffee, sit upon your throne and let’s get to work:

Global News

• Ecuador grants asylum to Julian Assange. Right…thank you for intervening Ecuador, but i is not necessary. The same country who declared it’s own debt illegitimate and files lawsuits against journalists wants to protect a journalist? Okay…moving on…
• Egyptian President Morsi has disempowered the military and is drafting a new Constitution. I say good for Egypt, regardless of whether they become an Islamist State or not. The people voted for Morsi, he is the President, and the military should not been able to do much about it. There is hope among Americans and Europeans he will lead Egypt further into democratization.

U.S. News

• Is Biden off the ticket? The Weekly Standard is reporting that at 10:45 ET, President Obama, Vice President Biden, and Secretary Clinton have a closed-to-press meeting in the Oval Office, followed by a private lunch between President Obama and VP Biden at 12:30 ET, also closed to the press. Could this be Obama having a “come to Jesus” talk with VP Biden that it is time to “retire for medical reasons” after his week of bad gaffes/press? FWIW, both former Gov. Sarah Palin and Sen. John McCain have called for him to removed…not that their opinions is anything more than a “bucket of warm spit” to Pres. Obama, to quote VP John Nance Garner.
• Is Iowa on board with Obama? After a campaign trip to the Hawkeye State, the Des Moines Register reports Iowa residents believe Pres. Obama has to run on his record.

 

“An incumbent has to run on his record,” said Timothy Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. “Obama tried to deflect the poor results of his programs by first noting that he inherited the problem. But most people no longer care whose fault it was. They just want it fixed.”

• Is Ryan a drag with Hispanic voters? Politico looks at the reasons why Rep. Paul Ryan might be a hindrance to Hispanic outreach for the Romney campaign. Most notably: he is part of a very unpopular Republican Congress and his stance on the Cuban embargo.

Texas News

• Protesting the Feeding Ordinance: CM Helena Brown (Batshit Cray) joined protestors in serving meals to Houston’s homeless in violation of a new city ordinance that requires organizations get written consent from the city before feeding the homeless. Necessary of not?

And that’s your dump for the day. Senate Predictions coming up after lunch.