I Can Make Up Polls Too

Someone should hire me, my polls are probably a thousand times better than CBS and Quinnipiac. Why is that? Let’s look at their Ohio poll:

• Obama leads Romney 50-45. The sample: 35/26/34. D+9….nearly double the margin from 2008. Who the heck believes the Democrats are MORE enthused this year and the Republicans will turn out at their lowest point in half a century? Hint: no one.
• Romney is up 7 with independents….a 15-point shift from 2008…
• D+9…5 point lead….losing independents by high single-digits…and only a 5 point lead is…wow, not good for Team Obama.

NBC/WSJ national poll has the race tied at 47%. Why is this one bad for Team Obama:

• 41/53 right/wrong direction
• 49/48 Obama job approval; 46/52 on economy
• Only 37% asked where McCain voters
• 44/38/15 with leaners…independents way way way undersampled
• Romney +2 in the gender gap…huge.

Romney +2 in Rasmussen; +3 in swing states

Romney +2 in GWU/Politico Battleground

Tied in PPP

Romney +7 in Gallup as of yesterday (another day of the 7-day average will drop off today around noon)

Swing States

Per RCP averages (anomalies in parentheses)

Ohio Obama +2.2 (+1, +3, tie, +1….+5 is the anomaly…) its more like +1 right now

Florida Romney +2.1

Virginia Tie (-5 is the anomaly with Romney +1, 3, 1)

New Hampshire Romney +1 (the anomaly is Romney +3…Tie, +1, -1)

Colorado Romney +0.2 (-3 is the anomaly…-2, +1, +1, +4)

Iowa Obama +2.4 (Obama +8 is the anomaly…+2, tie, +3, -1)

Wisconsin Obama +2.8 (Obama +6 is the anomaly…+2, +3, +1, +2)

Right now I’m comfortable with Romney 261 – Obama 243….Iowa is a tossup (O+1)….Ohio is a tossup (O+1.25)…Wisconsin is a tossup (Obama +2)…the rest are trending Romney (FL, VA, NH, CO)…

Third debate tonight….WEEEEEE

Post-Debate Breakdown (Like the One Joe Biden Had)

Good Lord, last night was a mess. Disrespectful, catty, and unrestrained. And that was just Martha Radditz (BAZINGA!)

Short summary of the debate: Proverbs 29:9 “If a wise man has an argument with a fool,
the fool only rages and laughs, and there is no quiet.”

But seriously, my longer breakdown of the debate:

• Biden was a mess…the first 75 minutes, he was angry, disrespectful and smug. Smirking, laughing, rolling his eyes, interrupting, and just plain rude. His last 25 minutes were better – he calmed down, he got emotion and level with this audience, but still…his overall tone was one that turned off a lot of undecideds, especially women.
• Paul Ryan held his own, especially during taxes and the economy; however, Radditz decided the focus needed to be more foreign policy than domestic policy — why, I don’t know? He handled Biden’s smugness with class, he was calm and respectful, measured and poised, and did well. He was nervous at the beginning, got better as he went along, and ended with an excellent emotional appeal to the audience.
• Biden’s best moment: arguing for the middle class. His worst: contradicting the State Department and saying the Benghazi Embassy never asked for more security
• Ryan’s best moment: defending his and Romney’s plans for Medicare. His worst: Iraq and Afghanistan answers.
• Biden’s best line: “Stop talking about how you care about people. Show me something.” Solid.
  Second best line: “Their ideas are old, their ideas are bad.” Equally solid.
• Biden worst line: “Oh, now you’re Jack Kennedy?” Awkward delivery.
  Second worst line: “War should always be the last resort.” Definitely not last.
• Ryan’s best line: “With respect to that quote, I think the vice president very well knows that sometimes the words don’t come out of your mouth the right way.” Got laughs.
  Second best line: “Mr. Vice President, I know you’re under a lot of duress to make up for lost ground, but I think people would be better served if we don’t keep interrupting each other.” Adult in the room.
• Ryan’s worst line: “Mitt Romney’s a car guy.” Awkward.
  Second worst line: “And then I would say, you have a president who ran for president four years ago promising hope and change, who has now turned his campaign into attack, blame and defame.” Pointless.
• It was a draw on substance; on professionalism, Ryan won by a landslide; on energy, Biden romped. CBS says Biden won by nearly 20 points; CNN says Ryan won by 4 points and was more likeable by 10 points.
• Watching the CNN undecideds, men responded well to Biden (forceful, aggressive defense of the middle class); women responded well to Ryan (polite, gentle tone and measured responses).
• This debate will do nothing to move the needle of this race. It won’t sustain the Romney surge and it won’t create an Obama resurge. There won’t be enough time to poll in the field to measure the impact of the debate as Romney and Obama go back on stage Tuesday night.

First Presidential Debate = BINGO!

Get your checklist out for tonight. The first presidential debate will take place tonight, in Colorado, and as usual, we can play BINGO with buzzwords:

big government

bipartisan

Reagan

Bush

Supreme Court

abortion

debt ceiling

fiscal cliff

bailout

energy independencd

Social Security

Medicare

jobs

unemployment

middle class

(insert foreign country)

(Insert foreign leader)

leading from behind

Wall Street

(insert random US cabinet department)

fiscal cliff

troops

transparency

Obamacare/Affordable Care Act/Romneycare

99% and/or 47%

“you didn’t build that”

bin Laden

Fast and Furious

(insert swing state)

I would be shocked – hell, I might drop dead – if 90% of those don’t show up tonight.

Morning Dump, August 10th

• Linda McMahon files complaint against Chris Murphy for a private equity loan he got for a home. It won’t lead to legal troubles, but it will lead to some press trouble.
• Obama edged Romney in fundraising: $114m to $111.6m. First time in a few months that has happened, though this is Romney’s highest fundraising month to date AND third straight $100m month. Convention months are easy for fundraising.
• Senator Dianne Feinstein walks out of interview when challenged to debate her opponent, Autism activist Elizabeth Emken. Really unacceptable not to debate your opponent. Perhaps some good press for Emken
• Rand Paul: expand the GOP tent and pick up Libertarians. YES PLEASE! Libertarians would help the party HUGELY in the Northeast (New Hampshire, Maine, Connecticut) and the West (Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico).

Quick Hits, September 7th

Media using fake names to buy campaign material from Obama/DNC…lamestream indeed.

Unemployment fell to 8.1%, BUT, participation rate in the labor force at the lowest levels in almost thirty years. If the number of workers were equal to that when Obama took office, UE would be 11%!

Mitt Romney: “If last night was the party, today is the hangover.”

DNC, Day 2

Just a quick run-through:

• Bill Clinton had the best speech of the night. He didn’t just sling partisan meat, he actually made a case for working across the aisle and politics as a profession. The man can work a crowd, no doubt. He’s funny, engaging, and full of folksy sayings that play with people.

• Elizabeth Warren can speak to the base in a way few others can, i.e. “The system is rigged against you.” But…it appeals to no one outside the base, hence, her struggle to gain traction against Scott Brown. This won’t do much to help her in that race. She’s still Granny Warren, populist extraordinaire; the architect of “you didn’t build that!”

• Kamala Harris is touted as a potential candidate for Governor but she fell FLAT.

• You will never see Sandra Fluke on this blog. She lies, she’s despicable, and disgraceful.

Best picture of the night: Hillary watches Bill from Timor-Leste, 10,000 miles away.

DNC, Day 1

Sorry about the delay in posting. It’s been quite a day indeed.

But let me sum up the main speeches:

• Harry Reid…sad little man.

• Ted Strickland is so partisan it hurts. I guess because he’s no longer in office and lost to John Kasich still tickles his britches because he’s so blindly partisan, it annoys me.

• Gov. Martin O’Malley (MD)….for being a “2016 contender,” he sucked.

• Lilly Ledbetter…annoys me.

• Corey Booker…Senate candidate 2014, “Book” it. Haha.

• Mayor Julian Castro….compelling life story and an up-and-comer “Hispanic Obama.” But look, he isn’t going anywhere really. Big-city mayors in Texas have little appeal outside of their cities (Kirk 2002, White 2010, Leppert 2012). If he runs for Congress and parlays it t the Senate, perfect. If he runs for state rep/senator and parlays it to Governor, even better. He won’t be the first Hispanic governor of Texas…in order: (1) George P. Bush; (2) Rafael Anchia; (3) Leticia van de Putte. But he’s a great speaker who can deliver a punch with a smile. Rare talent.

• Michelle Obama: fantastic. She makes Barack Obama look really good, but that’s what wives do. Great story, really brought people to tears, and inspired many. But enough of the Michelle/Ann 2016 crap. Spouses don’t translate well after speeches (read: Elizabeth Dole, 1996 -> failed presidential run in 2000).

Oh BEST PART of the night: Castro’s daughter.

Morning Dump, September 4, 2012

Holy cow, it is September. Now I have to get used to writing that instead of August (as I originally typed in the heading)

• “Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago? …No…I mean yes…I mean, sure, I mean…purple?”
• An I in school is worse than a letter grade…it means you didn’t do any work!

Weekend Polls (with my interest tidbits)

• All tied up in NC per PPP, 48-48. Interesting notes: +7 in favorability for Romney since last poll; biggest winners from the GOP Convention were Condi Rice (62/25) and Ann Romney (54/26)…Rubio +17, Martinez +16, Christie +8, Ryan +4
• No bounce in Florida, per PPP, 48-47 Obama. Interesting notes: +5 in favorability for Romney since last poll; biggest winners from GOP Convention were Condi Rice (66/22) and Ann Romney (56/22)…Rubio +18, Martinez +19, Christie +9, Ryan +7 (lol Mediscare)
• Colorado narrowing, per PPP, 49-46 Obama. Interesting notes: +3 in favorability for Romney since last poll; biggest winners from GOP Convention were Condi Rice (65/22) and Ann Romney (50/31)…Rubio +18, Martinez +20, Christie +9, Ryan +5
• Michigan narrowing, per PPP, 51-44 Obama. Interesting notes: Romney is -4 in favorability in his “home state;” biggest winners from the GOP convention: Condi Rice (64/21) and Ann Romney (51/27)…Rubio +13, Martinez +18, Christie +6, Ryan +5

What I gather: the convention boosted Romney’s favorability in key states; Ryan is seen positively at this point; Ann Romney continues to be a boost for the campaign; and holy cow Condi Rice is LOVED

The Democratic National Convention starts tonight, with San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro as the keynote. I’ll be tuning it for that.

Final Day of the Convention….what?

What? Did anyone else see Clint Eastwood’s speech? It was rambling, it was incoherent…dude…c’mon

As for the others:

• FL Sen. Marco Rubio was fantastic. Such a compelling life story and vision he has for this country, plus he’s a great speaker

• I felt Mitt Romney’s speech was good, if not a little stilted in delivery. He conveyed the key message: it’s ok to be disappointed that you voted for Barack Obama in 2008, you can make up for it this year. I thought he did an excellent job and did what he needed to do.

Now the Democrats get their turn in Charlotte, NC next week. And then it is on!

Senate Predictions, 8/30

Last week was 52-47-1. Any changes?

• Connecticut is now WEAK GOP LEAN/PICKUP following a second poll showing McMahon up 3, 49-46.
• Massachusetts is now WEAK GOP LEAN/HOLD following some polls showing him near 50%.
• Missouri is back to toss-up status, but still leans a hold for McCaskill right now.
• Montana moves to MODERATE GOP LEAN

And still 52-47-1. The needle hasn’t moved for anyone yet.